Hey,
This winter break did not go so well as I was bed ridden for over a week. On the second day of the year, I got very sick from a stomach virus and also caught a cold so I haven't had any energy lately. I wouldn't go as far as to say it's a bad start to the year, in fact, it has given me the chance to set health related goals for the coming year. The first thing all of my relatives told me was that I have gotten fat even though on a scale I haven't fluctuated more than 5 pounds since I got to college. However, I do feel like I've become unhealthy and unfit, maybe losing some muscles to fat. Luckily for me, I love winter sports and I'll be snowboarding and playing ice hockey a lot. On to my goals for the year:

1st Goal: Be more healthy
This involves eating healthier and not overstuffing myself as is common with my family.

2nd Goal: Exercise more
This is easy until around March when I won't be snowboarding every weekend and playing hockey every week. I will still be playing on the baseball team but when baseball is over, I'm not sure where I'm gonna get the exercise from. I might have to get into the habit of going to the gym but I'd rather not.

3rd Goal: Get into a great grad school program
I love learning about statistics and I really want to get into a master's program at Carnegie Mellon or UNC-Chapel Hill. I will still apply for jobs but I really want to complete grad school before I move into the professional world.

4th Goal: Play a lot of live poker
Now that I've finally renewed my driver's license, I'm hoping to go to the casino a lot more often and I want to move up to 2/5 before I graduate. I hope I can try and start a regular omaha table at my local casino. I want to play a lot of tournaments in preparation for the WSOP this summer; my brother wants to buy me into a $1500 event as a graduation present.

5th Goal: Build my online bankroll up to at least $5k
I have a race going with my brother at the moment, him to $1k from $100 and me to $5k from $1k. I've been lingering around 2.5k for quite a while but there is an uphill climb. I made about $1.5k last semester, pretty good for a full time college student but I want to be better. $2.5k this semester should be pretty obtainable.

This semester is going to be awesome, I just know it.
Good luck,
Whater

So at the time of my last blog, I was just starting to rebound from an absolutely ridiculous downswing where I didn't cash in a single sng for 18 sngs straight. In that downswing I lost almost all of my profits at the $22+2 turbo sngs. However, since my rebound, my graph is so straight it's also unbelievable but in a good way. I was winning and losing the right amount so that my graph was slightly angled upwards at 10% ROI instead of the ridiculous 60% ROI for 40 sngs, and then -90% ROI for the next 20. So I haven't really had to dealt with those swings I had last month which is a great change in pace.

The weird thing now, however, is that I'm crushing the $33+3s for 28% ROI over 110 sngs but I'm slowly losing at the $22+2s. Not a bad thing, it's just weird how different they play at the $33+3s. You'd figure they're better at the end game than the $22+2s but from what I've seen, they're a lot tighter. So at the moment, since I'm doing so well at 33's, I've decided to just play three at a time instead of playing four 22+2s at a time. This happened when I moved to 22+2's as well, I started off crushing it for 40% ROI over 100 sngs, then it returned to the more reasonable 10-15% over 200 sngs, and then it finally nose dived to just under 3% ROI. Maybe there's something I adjusted for at the 33s that is very profitable but it doesn't work at the 22s. If that's the case, that provides even more reason for me to play 33s exclusively for now. I am back at my career peak which is nice.

I'm very surprised that I don't have much tilt issues at the moment, it's something I used to struggle with so much. I think what helps is that I'm mainly playing sngs now and I know the right play and there's math behind it to back it up. As a statistics major, I know that as long as I keep making the right play, I will be rewarded. That has allowed me to stick with my game plan despite being on a such a long losing streak and still play well. I never gave up at any point and I didn't take a week off either. I knew I was playing well despite my results and I am glad I stuck it out. Remember, math can't lie.

oh yeah, I unlocked half of my holiday bonus within a day lol, earned over 600 ftps for the ironman challenge yesterday which is the most I've ever played. It's really easy to unlock the Holiday bonus when you play three 33s at a time for a few hours. Each session is $9 of fees which equals 63 ftps and so you can unlock $10 of the bonus within an hour and a half.


Good luck,
Whater

So I finally ended my streak of inconceivable bad luck. At its longest, the tapeworm was 18 sngs in length; 18 motherfucking snakes on a plane that was nosediving straight into the pacific ocean. Suffice it to say it was infuriating; I was even considering throwing my monitor into the wall at one point (but then I realized I couldn't make my money back if I did). 18 sng non-cash streak is pretty rare, I've read on forums of streaks up to 12 sngs. I'm not sure if they were playing turbos or not but I honestly could not fathom how much I was getting gheyed. I might have played slightly worse as the streak went on but at no point was I throwing money away. I checked sngegt after each sng and made sure all the decisions I made were correct and for the most part they were except for a select few hands. Here is a graph of my last week:



There was one sng where I got in Ace better kicker twice against the same opponent to go from huge chip leader to bubble boy. Then the sng right after that, I get in KK vs Q9s preflop and he hits two pair on flop and then fills up on the turn. In both of those, I was in such a dominating chip position and busted out in a flash. That is just a ripple compared to the tsunami of bad luck that dragged me out to the ocean and beat me senseless with a never ending string of boats. In all cases, we got it in preflop as a flip but I can't even begin to count how many times they flat out flopped trips and then filled up on the turn so that I had no chance to improve. There were so many spots that I completely dominated my opponents but they kept finding ways of beating me. It's not so much the fact that my QQ lost to 77 and then my 77 lost to K7 right after that's disheartening, but the fact that I lost so many of these that I couldn't cash in a single sng over the past 6 hours of poker I played (spanned over 3 days, I have classes with lots of hw after all). I play 4 sngs at a time so not cashing in 18 sngs felt like an eternity. But imagine playing 8 sngs and not cashing in a single one in two sessions. At the worst you expect to get 3rd in a couple or something but you never expect to not cash in any.

But looking on the bright side, now I know how the tail end of a normal distribution feels like. If I ever have a moderate losing streak of 10 sng noncashes, I can just think back on this experience. I am very proud of how even though I was getting absolutely raped by variance, I kept chugging along and making the correct plays. I could have turned it into a really bad week or ended the week break even but I believed in the math theory behind sngs and I was rewarded. All in all, I played 100 sngs in the past week with an ROI of 11% at an average buyin of $25. From what I gather, this is a pretty solid ROI for turbo sngs nowadays. Oh yeah, the weirdest thing is my ROI increases as the buyin increases. I'm -8% ROI for 11+1's, 5.4% for 22+2's and 19.8% for 33+3s. I've only played 73 sngs at 33+3 level and one more losing streak like the one I had this week could easily drop that down to 5%.

The moral of this lesson is to trust in the math, math does not lie. Do not alter your game plan just because it has not worked out in your favor lately. Variance can be a cold-hearted whore at some times but know that she can also be the sweet angel that gives you a moral boost when you are down. If poker was a steady uphill climb, then everyone could be a pro. Instead, those who can rise above the adversity during difficult times and play their best regardless of results are the ones who will succeed in the long run.

Good luck,
Whater

Hey,

I've never written a blog after a losing session so here it goes. Also, I clicked away from the site without saving a draft so I have to retype it, tilting me even more. On my way back to my blog, I saw that Gordo was going through the exact same thing as I am except on a much larger scale obviously. In both of our cases, we made a brag post the previous night on how godly we are but variance kicked us in the ass tonight.

I just played a 2 hour sng session from 11pm to 1am known as happy hour. I played about 16 sngs and I only cashed once in 3rd. To date, 14 is the longest streak of not cashing in sngs and I stopped for the day so there's a chance it'll extend longer than that. On Sunday and Monday I had streaks of not cashing in 10 straight twice but both times I bounced back with many back to back to back wins. However, that was not the case today as every time I shoved I always seemed to run into KK or AA. I searched online and it seems it's not uncommon for longest streaks to be around a dozen sngs or so. It was really frustrating though because I made the right decision most of the time; I checked them on sngegt after I busted. That's what kept me going, whenever I bust on a suckout or bust because I made the right play I always feel like I deserve a win so I sign up for more sngs. I didn't go on tilt or anything, I still play solid sng strategy.

In the end, looking at all the sngs I played since Friday night, I'm still up with an ROI of 8.5% at an average buy in of $27. I was all over forums just now looking up sng ROIs and it seems the general consensus is that 15% is a good ROI for $22's and 10% is a good ROI for $33's. My ROI was definitely right in that alley yesterday but it's amazing how fast it can swing around within a short session. Had I won one or two of those key spots I would be back in the zone. So the moral of the story is, keep making those +EV plays and you will be rewarded in the long run. I of all people should know that because I'm a stats major at Carnegie Mellon. However, that doesn't change the fact that it is still F*@#ing frustrating.

Good luck and don't let statistics screw with your game,
Whater

Hey,
It's been a while since I've blogged. I went to Vegas over mid-semester break which was awesome. The weather was sunny and warm, opposite of the gloomy and cold Pittsburgh. I stayed ad Treasure Island and visited all the big casinos. I found out that the Venetian spread 1/2-5 PLO which was pretty fun. However, the game had a $5 bring in and so people were basically playing it as if it were 2/5 which I couldn't handle. I made 400 the first two days thinking I could beat the game but the stakes were just too high for me and I lost it all back. I did play a few tournaments really well though. I played an $80 tournament at the Mirage twice, the first time I bubbled out in 11th making what I believe to be a good shove with really tight short stacks in the blinds. However, the chip leader on the button decides to wake up with aces and knocked me out. I played again the second time and this time I made the final table and made it to 3rd. the chip leader on the button raises and I look down at AQs in the small blind which is plenty strong and I shove. He happened to have KK and knocked me out. I got $350 for third which was pretty good.
I haven't gone to a casino since. I've wanted to go every week but my ride keeps backing out right before the weekend and it's really annoying. Darvin Moon apparently qualified for the main event through the casino I frequent, Wheeling Casino. Absolutely horrendous final three this year. Cada was good but there were so many times when one guy bets 3bb and then his opponent would shove 50+bb in. Cada was also guilty of this once. It happened so many times so maybe Cada's call of 65bb on the T9xT board was alright but it's still such a high variance way to play for $8.5 million. The amazing thing was they called these overbet shoves so many times. Whatever, I'll try my hand at the world series soon enough.
In other news, I played tons of sngs this weekend. I took the GRE on Friday and I really wanted to go to the casino but as I said, my friend kept backing out on the weekend. Instead I played 65 sngs at the $22+2 and $33+3 levels. Finished the weekend with an ROI of 30% which is pretty awesome. It's weird, my ROI keeps increasing as the stakes get higher. It's awesome but strange. I'm a losing player with -5.5% ROI at 11+1 turbos but I have an ROI of 13% at 22+2's and 17.3% at 33+3's. Can't really complain I guess. I started off winning like 7 out of 10 sngs and getting second in one of them. Then I had 12 straight non-cashes and it was the most frustrating thing ever. I stuck with it though and kept grinding. Eventually I bounced back and had the solid result that I ended with. It's good to know that hard work and sticking with a winning strategy pays off. Now I just gotta start playing more and more sngs at a time so I can increase my hourly winrate. I fixed a few key leaks in my sng strategy. Mainly, shoving any two when it gets to heads up against tight players. I used to think, I should steal here, but I can't do it with a 46o can I? Now its a no brainer shove for me against specific opponents.
I can remember in one of the games, I was being really aggressive 4 handed since the blinds were all the way up to 250/500 and I sucked out to get the chip lead. Then I shoved some really good sng spots, really tight button had around 2bb, the medium looser stacks had 5bb each, and I shoved with around 9bb knowing if I lost, the tight short stack was gonna blind out before me. The small blind called me with AQ and I dropped down to 4bb. The other medium stacker was commenting on how much of a retard I was, shoving J9o and I knew in my head it was a great play so I just played along with his banter but still stuck to my aggressive strategy. I ended up winning after knocking the mouth out in 3rd and I was happy that I was able to stick with my math even though I was getting really frustrated with my other sngs. That is probably the strongest skill I have in poker, the ability to stick with the highest EV plays even though sometimes it makes me look like a complete idiot.
I've got so much to do applications wise. I have to write so many essays for grad school apps and I have to keep applying to jobs. I just want to play poker so bad. At my current level, I can make probably 50k a year and that's just from grinding low stakes sngs. If I can move up to playing 4 $36 sngs or higher, I could easily make as much as I would if I got a job as a college grad right now.The only problem is I can't even get in 8 hours a week due to all the homework I get at a university like Carnegie Mellon. Although, with what I have put in this semester, I've added around 1.5k to my wallet which has made life a bit more comfortable.
In other news, we started IM floor hockey today, I got to play goalie which is so much fun. My favorite Ice Hockey Player is Marc-Andre Fleury for a few reasons. I have followed the Penguins very closely since their playoff run in 07-08 season. I didn't even know about ice hockey before that. But instead of picking the obvious Crosby or Malkin, I chose Fleury as my favorite player. I always like to go against the norm for one. More importantly, he has my favorite number, goalie's my favorite position, and he shares my nickname of "flower". My Chinese name Hua if read in a different intonation means flower. I've been called flower before by my friends and when I heard Fleury was nicknamed flower, I knew he was gonna be my favorite player. I even bought his jersey in 08. Anyway, back to IM floor hockey, we crushed the other team. It's kind of unfair when half of the roller hockey team composes our IM team. the ball was in the offensive zone 80% of the game and their total number of shots on goal doesn't even come close to how many goals we scored. I let one goal in, it's kind of hard to keep your focus when they only get off one shot a period. We played a pick up game with the team that was supposed to play after us since their opponents didn't show and forfeited. I played much better as a goalie that second game since there was a shot every 5 minutes instead of every 12. We still crushed them though. I love playing goalie, I had to use reverse glove and blocker though since they didn't have left handed gear.
That's pretty much my last 2 months in a nutshell.
Good luck at the tables,
Whater

I'm a week from 21 and I'm really excited! I have 3 exams on Thursday and Friday so I can't really celebrate till after those. Hopefully my friend will take me to Wheeling Casino in WV which is about an hour and a bit away from Pittsburgh. Heading to Vegas for mid-semester break Oct. 15-18th which I am really excited for. Can't wait to eat Nobu and N9ne on my dad's credit card as my bday present.
So, I knew I was getting the better end of variance when I made 1200 within a week playing $20 sngs and the downswing did in fact come. I had quite a few sessions, where I just lost every single sng. I had streaks of like 10 straight losses which I was kind of expecting but it still sucked when it happened. Overall I'm still around 20% ROI over 250 sngs and I'm feeling pretty good. Unfortunately, I haven't been able to play much due to homework, baseball practice, GRE study, job and grad school applications. However, I still managed to make around $400 this month and I'm almost back to my peak br, but this time not due to variance. I'm pretty happy with my results, I wish I could play more because it's obvious to me I'm better than a lot of people at the $22 and $33 level. I believe I'm better than the regs who only have ~5% ROI.
In the grand scheme of things, however, I still have a lot of time to play poker, especially next semester after I'm done with all my applications. Right now I need to make sure I have something to do after I graduate, I don't want to depend on poker just yet. I like to keep my options open. I would really like to finish all my studies while I'm still young and have the stamina to learn new topics. If I can get into a good grad school, I will go even if I get a good job. If I don't get into a good grad school, hopefully I can get a job and work a year or two and reapply for grad school. The last thing I want is just to have a bachelor's degree.
So right now it is very important for me to focus on my applications, I doubt I'll be playing any poker on a regular basis until Christmas. The $2000 extra I made over the summer from poker should be enough pocket money to spend on whatever free time I can find between classes, applications, and interviews. I'll probably still play a few sngs here and there once a weekend and besides the one big trip to Vegas, I might go to Wheeling a couple times.
Probably won't update my blog until Christmas.
Good luck,
Whater

First things first, http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=faceroll. I was playing WoW on my brother's computer last week and while I was doing a quest, two guys near me decided to duel and when one guy lost, he said, "lol, DK is so faceroll". Apparently it means that something is so easy to play that you can just roll your face across your keyboard and still win.

Everything has lined up for me in the past 5 days. I started out with $0 back in April but lots of ftps and I turned some of those ftps into $5 playing satellites. Within a month and a half I turned that into $1000. However, for the next two months, I played very break even poker and up until August 25th, I was still at 1k. In the past 5 days however, I played about 80 sngs at $11+1, $22+2 and $33+3 turbo sngs with an overall ROI of 40%. Obviously I'm running super hot but I'm absolutely lovng my game. I haven't seen that kind of success in a while. I've fixed my end game up so well that it just seems like the regulars are making so many mistakes. I'm sure they're all winning players but with the mistakes they're making, I can't see them being 20% ROI winners.



Those are my stats since the 25th. I've won way more tournaments than coming in any other position, almost double. Life is good when everything line's up.

good luck,
Jason

So since the last post, I have really studied my sng strategy and fixed many leaks. Been plugging all the important hands into sngegt and it has cleared up my game a lot. I have made it back to the $20 sngs and I played 5 of them last night, won 2 of them and got second in 2 of them for about $200. Suprisingly the people at $20 sngs feel the need to be more aggressive (like I thought I needed to be when I first played). As a result, I've been able to survive to 5 or 6 handed quickly without playing a hand. At the $10 level, we would still be 9 handed at the 75/150 level which makes it more difficult. Obviously 5 sngs is not a significant sample size but I like my game at the moment, I believe it to be close to optimal, more optimal than my opponents at least.
I have also been playing a lot of turbo sngs as I have seen Jackal and Braminc play which helps a lot since our forte is the late stage. I rarely get involved in a hand while the blinds are still small, only QQ+, AKs+ and AQo+. Until I have about 12 blinds or less. Once I pick up the chip lead I bully relentlessly. I'm glad I'm finally sure of my game for once. I've always been suspicious of my cash game which I'm quite sure I'm a losing player right now and I never really beat tournaments higher than $10. Now when I play $20 sngs and above, I can spot my leaks and point out my opponents' leaks. So I will be sticking to turbo tournaments for a while.
Good Luck,
Jason

Hey,
I've been spending the past few weeks trying to figure out why I haven't been able to kill $20 sngs. At the $10 and below sngs and tournaments, I've been killing with a winrate of close to 30% but whenever I tried the $20 ones, I wasn't able to cash as often. This is what I've figured out, most people at the $20 ones know how to play poker compared to the field at $10 sngs. The reason I was able to make a killing at the $10 level was because I was able to play lots of hands and outplay my opponents. People at the $20 sngs, however, can figure out that you're stealing light and they defend a lot better than players at the $10 level.
I've watched a lot of Jackal and Braminc sng videos and I found a good progression of aggression. They start off really tight until the average stack is around 20bb and they loosen up a bit. Once they pick up a big stack, they play ultra aggressive until they steam roll the table. So far that has worked for me as well. My strength compared to my opponents' is the ability to play shorthanded and the bubble well. However, I can't utilize my strengths if I get knocked out early splashing around. As long as you still have around 1500 chips when the blinds are 40/80, you still have a really good chance to win. My strategy at the $10 level and below where my skills are way above my opponents' is not going to work where I'm not as ahead of the field at the $20 level. So nitty early, slightly laggy in the middle, and ultra aggressive if everyone has around the same amount of chips or you have more chips during the bubble.
Good luck,
Whater