"It would be some consolation for the feebleness of our selves and our works if all things should perish as slowly as they come into being; but as it is, increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid."

-- Lucius Anneaus Seneca, Letters to Lucilius, n. 91

I just finished my fourth session with my student Patrick. He told me that he had a really bad session. I inquired about why he had the bad session and he told me that he tilted. I asked him to show me what happened and we looked at his hands + graph.

Over time, I've learned just how important it is to quit when things are not going your way. You're just not going to win some days. For example - here is a good one where the cards decided that it wasn't meant to be. Patrick said things like "I hate being in the red" and "I got frustrated and wanted to win it back". He has ambitions of playing for a living, and if he is to do that, he needs to learn to quit at the right time.

Here is the graph he showed me. I added my own notes afterward:



As you can see, towards the end of the session, his losing started to accellerate. This is the pattern he'll experience again in the future. Namely:

1. Staring out on the A-game, winning at a steady click.
2. A few losses, back to even.
3. Starting to win again, but not a lot of consistency.
4. A-game is starting to fade, now all the small pots we were winning at the beginning we are losing. Frustration is starting to mount.
5. Now we are losing the big pots.
6. After losing two big pots, we win a small one and we follow that up with another big lost pot.

At this point we need to stop. The deck is cleary against us - reglardless of if we feel like we are on our A-game or not.

"But Verneer - I can still play my A-game even after such a stretch!"

Probably not, but even if you think you can, take a break. Get away from the table, walk around, and come back. Poker will still be there.

Recognizing the point in which your B/C game meets bad variance is critical to knowing when to quit and that in turn is critical in being a consistent long-term winner.