Senator # 2: Junior Senator Mark Kirk from Illinois is on today's PPA daily action plan.



Please send him a tweet and voice your support for poker legislation. It can only help!

This election has shown that once the people make their voices heard, politicians listen and start to "evolve" on certain issues. Let's make poker be one of those.

I talked to Rich Muny (TheEngineer on 2+2 - check out his Daily Action Plan) from the PPA about the current status of poker legislation and what we as poker players can do to maximize our EV of getting any sort of bill passed.

Rich said that one of the best things we can currently do is be vocal to the U.S. Republican Senators and make our voices hear about Reid/Kyl bill that's currently being proposed.

I have a feeling that the next few weeks will be critical to our efforts. The most likely scenario for the bill passing is for Senator Reid to attach it to a larger piece of "must pass" legislation, but he might face opposition in doing so. We should be an active voice in the upcoming few weeks to make sure our position is being heard.

Let's start with Bob Corker from Tennessee:



You can find him on Twitter or Facebook.

Please tell him one of the following (It doesn't matter if you are from TN or not, but if you are, make sure you mention that):

- You support the Reid/Kyl online poker bill.
- You want poker to be regulated to protect the consumers.
- Online Poker can be an important source of revenue for state/federal government.
- We live in the land of the free: We should have the freedom as responsible adults (21 years+) to make our own recreational decisions.

Please let me know where you posted and I'll keep a running tally of our efforts. You'll never know when you are likely to make a difference and how much of one. Let's do all we can to make our voices heard!

It's been a year and half since we could last play poker reasonably. Given the state of Congress in the last few years, nothing was expected to get done.

That time is over.

It's time for poker players to figure out what needs to happen to legalize and regulate poker. It's time to make your voice heard. It's time to get educated on the matter.

Poker is as American as apple pie. We live in a country that prides itself on freedom, liberty, and individual responsiblity, has a revenue problem, yet some members of Congress oppose poker legislation. It's hypocritical.

More to come soon.

Knowing probability is critical to long-term poker success. Test yourself on some basic questions:

1. In a lotto game, one has to choose 6 numbers from a total of 40. Vered has chosen I, 2, 3.4.5, 6. Ruth has chosen 39, 1. 17, 33, 8,27. Who has a greater chance of winning?

A) Vered has a greater chance of winning.
B) Ruth has a greater chance of winning.
C) Vered and Ruth have the same chance to win.

2. Suppose one rolls two dice simultaneously. Which of the following has a greater chance of happening'?

A) Getting the pair 5-6
B) Getting the pair 6-6
C) Both have the same chance.

3. Yoav and Galit each receive a box containing two white marbles and two black marbles.

(I) Yoav extracts a marble from his box and finds out that it is a white one. Without replacing the first marble, he extracts a second marble. Is the likelihood that this second marble is also white smaller than, equal to, or greater than the likelihood that it is a black marble?

(II) Galit extracts a marble from her box and puts it aside without looking at it. She then extracts a second marble and sees that it is white. Is the likelihood that the first marble she extracted is white
smaller than, equal to, or greater than the likelihood that it is black?

4. When choosing a committee composed of 2 members from among 10 candidates the number of possibilities is ...

A) Smaller than
B) Equal to
C) Greater than

... the number of possibilities when choosing a committee of 8 members from among 10 candidates.

5. The likelihood of getting heads at least twice when tossing three coins is ...

A) Smaller than
B) Equal to
C) Greater than

... the likelihood of getting heads at least 200 times out of 300 times.

Post your answers is the comments. I'll post the answers withs some discussion in a few days.

Since most of my friends tend to be Democrats, I would like to hear a non scripted opinion about the recent Romney comments from a few people that are supporting Romney.

What is your take on what he said and how much, if any, is it likely to effect the election?

Phil Galfond, in his recent blog about Viktor Blum, wrote the following:

Over the time we spent together, I got to learn more about his thought process and his approach to the game. Some fun facts: Viktor doesn't use any kind of poker database or HUD, and he doesn't watch any training videos. In fact, he hasn't used any of the resources that almost all full time online pros have.

Does that mean that you should stop using Holdem Manager and no longer watch videos from players that beat the limits you play? Nope. That would be like comparing apples to oranges.

Here are they key elements of games that Viktor plays:

1) Small and fairly stable player pool. He sees the same players time and time again. He is able to get to know them intimately. The hands that go to showdown and specifcs surrounding them are critical.

2) Very good specific players with no major leaks who change gears. Against a player who doesn't have any clear leaks, is changing gears frequently, and is aware of their tendencies, a HUD can be counterproductive. When Viktor plays Ivey, his focus is beating Ivey, not "a player like Ivey."

3) Most of the action is HU ... or 1/2 Tables. Anytime you play someone head's up or play only one table you are able to focus specifically on your opponent and start getting a much better feel for them.

On the other hand, I'm guessing these are staples of games that you play:

1) Large and ever-changing player pool. Players move up and down the stakes, only show up a few times, etc etc. It just doesn't make sense to take extensive notes on them if you are unlikely to see them frequently in the future.

2) General "Players Types" with major leaks who play straightforward. By straightforward I mean - not a lot of variation in their game. If they have aggressive tendencies, they will usually stay aggressive 90%+ of the time. Same with passive players. A HUD can give you great insight into this type of player. When you play a 30/2 calling station, you can quickly generalize some of their tendencies because they fit into a "player type".

3) Most of your action is 6-max or FR. HU poker is really a whole other game. As I mentioned in my book, Building a Bankroll, 6-max and FR have a lot of similarities and lessons from one can be often generalized to the other. I cannot say this for HU though - it's a completely different beast.

This is also why training videos are much more applicable for micro and low stakes players - you deal with large, predictable player pools where players have clear leaks which can be generalized and exploited. At the high stakes and nose bleeds, it's all about small pools of specific and unique invidiuals.

Apples and oranges.

The other day I noticed that Katy was in a bad mood. I asked her what was wrong and eventually she told me that she was coming downstairs to ask me a question. On the way down, she thought "well - if I ask him this, he'll just say that. Then I'll say this and he'll say that." Apparently, she didn't like the last thing I was going to "say" and got mad at me.

I got all the fallout without any of the work.

I notice a variation of this with many poker players. They show up at the table and have all these scenarios worked out about their opponents. "If I raise, he'll think that I'm bluffing so then I have to re-raise to show him that blah blah blah blah."

Too much talking in your own head, not enough paying attention to your opponents. So many players sit down at the tables blinded by these inner dialogues and are thus incapable or very limited in making actual reads about their opponents.

Bottom line - quit talking to yourself and assuming things that you shouldn't. You'll spew less.

This is bugging me a little.

Katy and I recently moved to Blacksburg, Virginia which requires annual car inspections (neither TN or GA does). I don't know many places in town, so I went to a mechanic closest to me. They checked the car and said I would need some work done on my rear axle - it was leaking some sort of fluid. It would cost me between $450 and $550. They put a "failed inspection" sticker on my car.

Given the amount of money, I took my car to another mechanic and asked them to do a car inspection as well. They asked me about my sticker and I told them someone else recently did an inspection and I wanted a second opinion on what needs to be done. They did the inspection and told me nothing (other than two lights which was out) needed to be done. My total bill was $36 ($20 + $16 for the inspection). I now have a "passed inspection" sticker. I told the 2nd mechanic about what the first one said. His reaction was basically "he might not be getting enough regular business".

So ... should I just assume the first guy was trying to rip me off or go get a third opinion on the whole matter? I don't want to drive a car which could potentially be unsafe but I also def don't want to play for work that my car doesn't need.

For those of you with cars - how standard is it for car mechanics to try to get you to do work that doesn't need to be done?

Full Disclosure Derric and I were both CardRunners pros (he no longer is). Beyond that, we don't have or ever had any sort of financial dealings. He asked me if I would be willing to read and review the book to which I agreed.

Fundamentally, poker is a game of decision making. It's also a game of uncertainty and variance. Quantum Poker, a reference to the combination of uncertainty and probability inherent to quantum mechanics, is Derric's attempt at illuminating the fundamental mechanics behind poker and sharing that with the readers.

The books is broken down into a few basic sections:

1. Basic concepts and definitions. Here you will find the formula for Fold Equity, discussions of bankroll management, and some basics of board texture. Most players reading this book will be familiar with most of these concepts, but it's always nice to hear how an experienced pro discusses them in his or her own words.

2. The EV of bet sizing and Multi-Tabling. Everything about poker is a function of your expected value. In this section Derric covers in detail an example of how different bet sizing can impact your EV in a hand. This is definitely something that most beginning and even intermediate players don't think about enough - especially the EV of overbetting.

3. Enumeration and the Unified Theory of Poker. I think this is the crux of QP. Derric proceeds to outline mathematically how to construct optimal lines for different situations. The math in this section is intimidating - even for someone with an extensive math background like myself. Basically, it boils down to this:

Every time you have a decision to make, your decision will elicit a certain reaction from your opponent with a corresponding probability. So, for example, if you bet K J on a certain flop, your opponent will call/fold/raise you with a certain range and a certain probability. Each of those actions lead to more choices for you. Essentially, you are part of a large decision tree:



As he writes, "You should see the game of poker as a game of solving equity calculations and be completely indifferent between what hands are in someone's range, whether you win or lose, and who has taken your money. As long as you are making the best decisions you can, with all the information you have gathered, and all the math you can do or estimate4, you are playing as perfectly as possible, and that is perfection." (p. 125)

So basically, he presents the ideal of how one should think about poker while admitting that such an ideal is impossible for us to execute. Still - it's important to be aware of it and to continue approaching it - even if it's with very small steps.

The next section of the book is a collection of thoughts on different topics - like ambition, why and how you can make money off regs, ego, leveling, blocker bets, etc. Basically - anything and everything poker related that Derric wanted to get out on paper. These vignettes give this section an Elements of Poker type feel. Short, easy to process, and very informative.

Finally, Derric closes out with a day of his play at the live tables as well as a few extra hand histories that he analyzed.

My Thoughts:

Derric has involved in poker for a long time. He has played high stakes (3-6 --> 25/50) both live and online, both 6-max and Full Ring. He has a long track record of playing solid winning poker. His most recent results have been from live poker, given that he lives in San Diego and can't play online:



This book is a glimpse into the mind of a long-term winning player and that's critical. At times it's really dense (the math behind the enumerations), but having access to 200+ pages of organized thoughts from a player of Derric's caliber is invaluable and easily worth the price of the book.

I would not recommend this as a starter book, but for anyone who is winning at the small or mid stakes and wants to take his or her game to the next level, this is a good follow-up book.

In terms of cons, I would have liked to see more examples with less math once the math has been established. I would have also liked to see Derric tailor some of the math to the more common problems intermediate players face - like facing 3-bets or flop raises.

Cliff Notes: Not for beginners, but should easily pay for itself if you are looking to become more serious about the game, even if you don't get all or most of the math involved in the theory section.

You can order the book on Amazon for $50.

Big news for the pokerworld. Stars formalized their purchase of FTP assets and players will start getting paid back.
http://diamondflushpoker.com/2012/07/pokerstars-acquires-full-tilt-poker-assets-doj-agreement-complete/

Official DOJ Release:
http://www.justice.gov/usao/nys/pressreleases/july12/pokersettlement.html

Stars Blog:
http://www.pokerstarsblog.com/corporate_blog/2012/pokerstars-settles-with-united-states-doj-096492.html

Time to start separating the noise from the news. I'll update this blog as news comes in and try to answer any questions that people might have.

From Andrew Feldman (ESPN Poker):
Quick hits: PS pays $731M to DoJ, gets FTP's assets. PS repaying players outside of US, US players need to petition DoJ for $$ back.
https://twitter.com/AFeldmanESPN/status/230343599101997056

Lee Jones's FAQ about today:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/29/news-views-gossip/official-pokerstars-announcement-regarding-ftp-doj-1228781/

"Our settlement acknowledges that both PokerStars and Full Tilt are eligible to apply for a license in the U.S. to offer real money poker when states or the federal government offer such an opportunity. We look forward to this opportunity and are confident that we bring tremendous value, regulatory experience, market credibility and financial integrity to the marketplace."

This seems that both FTP and Stars will be able to come back to the U.S. market if and when it becomes regulated and legal again. That's great news.