I keep getting the blue screen of death as I'm trying to put together CTM2013 #6. I haven't written a blog in a while (lots going on outside of poker), so I'll address the topic of four-betting Ace-King/Queens while I try to figure out wtf is wrong with my computer and whether I need to do a system restore (answer: probably).

My sixth "Crushing the Micros 2013" video and the 3rd Issue of my Guide to 6-max NLHE deal with playing different hands when faced with a three-bet after you raise from Early Position. I spent a week or so writing up the HH's and working out some of the math behind the 3rd issue. I'll discuss some of the key ideas in the video, but as always, I encourage you to apply and question everything you discuss through the filter of your own game(s). Here is what you need:

• PokerStove
• FoldEquity Spreadheet (I saved it to GoogleDocs -> Make a copy and you can edit it)
• Some HH's

The general idea is for you to get a sense of how hands like Ace-King and Queens (and sometimes Jacks) do when you four-bet call them against different ranges.

So - fill in the information in the yellow section, the blue section should do some calculations and then the green section tells you two pieces of info:

1. Based on your four-bet size, how often the villain(s) has to fold for you to profitable four-bet any two cards in that spot.
2. Based on Hero's Equity (versus villain's 5-bet AI range), how often the villain needs to fold in order for you to profitably four-bet your given hand.

For example, in the situation above, once if I four-bet to $23, the villain needs to folds at least 57% of the time for me to be able to four-bet 72o there.

Once I four-bet my Ace-King though, assuming that I have 40% against his range if we get it all-in, I still need him to fold 45%+ of the time to the four-bet to make my four-bet profitable given my equity.

The key to all this is estimating the villain's all-in range and thus your equity against it. One thing you'll realize is that until you see your opponent five-betting Ace-Queen, Ace-King plays much better as a flat than it does as a four-bet. More often than not, you need more fold-equity than you imagine (at least I did).

Also, if you see any issues with my math in the way the spreadsheet is set up, please let me know - either here or on Twitter.

I'm working out a fold-equity question and the numbers just don't seem right. I think I made a mistake somewhere, but I just can't find it. There must be some assumption that's wrong.

Here is the question (in a TwoPlusTwo thread):

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15/poker-theory/where-mistake-fold-equity-math-1319379/

Thanks in advance to anyone that finds the flaw (either in my setup, my math, or if everything is correct, my intuitive feeling that something was wrong).

3/26/2012 edit: Some of the problems with my writeup:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15/poker-theory/preflop-gto-nlhe-3bet-4bet-5bet-question-1314847/

I've recently been analyzing hands from early position where I raise and face a 3-bet. As I write about and analyze numerous hands, I base a lot of my decisions on different stats from villains. I wanted to complement this by a GTO analysis of the 3bet/4bet/5bet dynamics of this setup.

Initial Assumptions

So, to begin with, let's start with these assumptions:

1. Both players start with $100 and no one else gets involved in the hand.
2. Hero opens to $3 with a range of 15% of hands (198 combos)
3. Villain, in position, 3-bets to $9
4. Hero either folds or 4-bets to $22. Hero never calls the 3-bet out of position.
5. Villain either folds or goes all-in.
6. Hero either calls or folds to the 5-bet.
7. No rake!

I based my math on some of the articles by Bugs on Donkr.com who in turn based his on a video series by our own Matthew Janda. I pretty much copied Bugs' model an applied my own ranges and modified some of the bet sizing to reflect the games I play in.

Non-Specific GTO Math

When the Villain 3-bets the Hero, he is risking $9 to win $3 + $1.5 (the blinds). He thus makes immediate profit if the Hero folds more than $9/($9 + $4.5) = 67% of the time. Thus, the Hero needs to defend at least 33% of his opening range with a mixture of value hands (ones he will call a 5-bet shove with) and bluffs (which he will fold to a 5-bet shove with).

When the Hero 4-bets to $22, she is risking $19 (since he already has $3 in the pot) in order to win $3 + $9 + $1.5 = $13.5. Thus, if the Villain folds more than $19/($19 + $13.5) = 59% of the time, the Hero will show immediate profit. Thus, the Villain needs to defend by 5-betting at least 41% of the time.

When the Villain 5-bets to $100, it seems like he is risking $91 to win $22 + $9 + $1.5 = $32.5, but when called on his bluffs, he will have some non-zero equity, so equity wise, he is actually risking less.

For example, assuming that the Hero calls a 5-bet bluff with a tight range of QQ+, AK and the Villain 5-bet bluffs with Ad5d, the Villain still has 30% equity and thus expects to win $60 out of the ~$200 in the long run. Thus, if his bluffing range has at least 30% equity, he is only risking $31 ($91 - $60) when 5-bet "bluffing."

Since he is risking $31 to win the $32.50, he needs to get folds 49% of the time. Thus, the Hero needs to call the 5-bet at least 51% of the time. For the sake of simplicity, let's say roughly 50% of half of the time.

When the Hero calls, she is risking $78 to win $201.50. Thus she needs at least roughly 39% equity against the Villain's 5-betting range.

Constructing GTO Ranges

Hero's 4-bet Range:
Hero opens 15% of hands (198 combos) and has to defend at least 33% of them. That's 66 combinations. Since Hero needs to call 5-bets 50% of the time, 33 combos will be value and 33 will be bluffs. Since we rounded here and there, we'll just say 34 value and 32 bluffs to keep it clean.

4-bet for value: QQ+, AK (34 combos)
4-bet as a bluff: KQ, AQ (32 combos)

Against Hero's 4-bet value range, the villain needs to have at least 50% equity for his 5-bet value range. Only KK-AA qualify for that.

Villain's 5-bet Range:
5-bet Value Range: KK-AA (12 combos)

He also wants enough bluffs so that the weakest part of Hero's range has at least 39% equity. Adding the suited Aces (which give Villain the desired 30% equity does the trick). Looks like 9 combos are enough to work for QQ to have right around 39% equity:



5-bet Bluffing Range: A5s, A4s, Ad3d (9 combos)

Villain's 3-bet Range:
Since Villain is 5-betting 21 combos, that is his value range. Since he needs to defend against the 4-bet 41% of the time, he can bluff the remaining 59%. For the sake of simplicity, let's make it 40% value, 60% bluffs.

Since the villain has 21 combos of value hands, he can add 33 combos of bluffing hands.

3-bet value range: KK-AA, A5s, A4s, Ad3d (21 combos)
3-bet bluffing range: A9s, KJo, KTs, K9s, QTs, Q9s (32 combos)

Summary:

1. Hero opens 198 combos:
AA-22,AKo-AJo,KQo,AKs-A2s,KQs-KJs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s



2. Villain 3-bets 53 combos:
AA-KK,A5s-A4s,Ad5d
KJo,A9s,KTs-K9s,QTs-Q9s



3. Hero 4-bets 66 combos:
AA-QQ,AKo-AQo,KQo,AKs-AQs,KQs



4. Villain 5-bets 21 combos:
AA-KK,A5s-A4s,Ad5d



5. Hero calls 34 combos:
AA-QQ,AKo,AKs



This is my first time working out such a problem, so if you see any mistakes or have any questions/comments, please let me know.

For those of you that watched the first episode of Crushing the Micros 2013 and asked me about the study matrix, here it is (right click and select "View Image" to get the fully formatted version):



On Imgur:
http://imgur.com/jqQqEF2

The idea is to figure out how you play different hands on different flop textures in and out of position against different opponents. So for example, given a loose passive player who called from the BB, how would you play each hand on each flop texture? Now, how does it change if the player has position on you and called on the button? Also, always be thinking about good/bad turn cards for you.

Let me know which ones you find particularly tricky.

Just did a leakfinder of a 5NL video for the Crushing the Micros series that's coming up. My thoughts on what I saw. I think playing with a VPIP of < 18 might be optimal for these limits.

Possibly also applicable to 10NL (although I can't confirm):

Just finished Part 2 of "Verneer's Guide to SSNL." For now, it's just available on LeanPub:

https://leanpub.com/verneerNLHE2

And Part 1 is available here:
https://leanpub.com/verneerNLHE1

And on Amazon:
http://www.amazon.com/Position-Verneers-Todays-Stakes-ebook/dp/B00BNRXBJQ

It's around 40 pages and includes analysis of 20 Hand Histories organized by board texture in a situation where we raise from early position and get called by another player from middle position, cutoff or the button. Thus, we are forced to play a single-raised pot out of position.

I also discuss the general dynamics that are associated with this situation as well as some general applicable theory. I've made some general improvements to this issue based on your comments from the last one. As always, please let me know what you like/dislike so I can continue making a better product.

Readability Question:

When reading about poker, which is easier for you to read? A hand history with simply the suit pictures like this:

Hand8 Small by mtmicrobooks

Go to "Advanced Filters" and set the "Player Won or Lost bbs is Between" to "11 and 25." Let me know what yours looks like - mine is all over the place and it's definitely one of the biggest things I'm working on in my game since I think it correlates highly with overall winrate.

The original "Crushing the Micros" was produced in 2008. I often get asked "Are those videos still relevant?", and while I think a lot of the concepts still apply, a lot has changed and it would be nice for CardRunners to have an updated version.

Thus, I'm setting out to produce "Crushing the Micros: 2013 Edition" in which I hope to include an overview of what I believe is needed to beat the 6-max games up to 100NL. If you have any interest in getting involved, send me a PM. I'm looking for:

* People who would be willing to make videos for analysis at their regular 5NL - 50NL limits.
* Questions about things that are very difficult for you.
* 30,000+ hand databases at a single limit that people want analyzed for leaks.
* Anything else you can think of that you would want to see.

If you have any interest in being a part of the series or just want to give comments/suggestions, shoot me a PM or get in touch with me on Twitter.

Publishing on LeanPub vs. Amazon

After publishing Part 1 of my Guide to SSNL, I am really liking the LeanPub product over the Amazon one. It gives the reader more options and I just found out the Amazon charges an extra $3.00 or so fee for European users to get eBooks from them. Man ... they really find ways to squeeze everyone.

I've decided to go stricly with the eBook version on this. Here is what I wrote about Part 1:

"In this issue, Pawel breaks discusses the dynamics of opening a hand from early position and playing against one opponent who called from the blinds. Using examples of real hands he's recently played in at 100NL on PokerStars and Full Tilt Poker, Pawel discusses how to deal with donk bets, which flops to bet, which ones to check back, and how to play on later streets.

He recommends multiple Holdem Manager filters and invites you to evaluate your own game as you read along."

Link to eBook:
http://www.amazon.com/Early-Position-Play-Verneers-ebook/dp/B00BGBIM70/

**EDIT**
PDF Version available on LeanPub:
https://leanpub.com/verneerNLHE1

Part 2 will be available here:
https://leanpub.com/verneerNLHE2

I guarantee your satisfaction.

I've set the price at $4.95, an amount which is likely 1/10 or less of a coaching lesson with a SSNL coach. If this book doesn't make you double that amount in the next few weeks of play, PM me and we'll work something out. If it does, PM me as well - I'd love to see HH's of where you applied the examples and ideas that are used in the book.