It's been a while since my last update - no real reason just laziness.

What's happened? Bust my roll on Parbet playing 50NL HU; spewed too much then chased my losses - such is life. $230 in rakeback arrived yesterday so I'm able to restart and don't see any problems in rebuilding; just need to stay away from the HU tables.

Having been forced to return to FT I have managed to triple my paltry roll on there grinding out 10NL. Decided to try a couple of tables at 25NL today for a change and this hand came up www.pokerhand.org/">http://www.pokerhand.org/?2709688">www.pokerhand.org/ Pretty standard flip but it did get me to thinking about what hands you should be willing to go AIPF with when you know someone else's all-in range.

How does QQ fare against a standard tight player's AIPF range. Assuming QQ+ and AKo/AKs it has about 41%* according to Pokerstove.

The pokerstove calculation however (I believe) fails to take into account the likelihood of each hand. Villian is much more likely to have AKo than AA. To expand on the calculation you need to understand the frequencies of each of the possible 169 starting hands in the 1,326 two card combinations.

Having searched for frequency calculations the best that I could find was here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability_(Texas_hold_'em)

Using this information I'll assign the following probabilities:

AA 1/221

KK 1/221

QQ 1/442 (remember we hold QQ)

AKs 1/331

AKo 1/82

Immediately we see that AKo becomes the more likely holding. Next we need to manipulate the base numbers so that we can assign %. Villian has 5 possibile holdings and the probability of each is as follows (using a base of 442):

AA (2/11.74) = 17%

KK (2/11.74) = 17%

QQ (1/11.74) = 8.5%

AKs 1.34 = 11%

AKo 5.40 = 46%

Total = 99.5%

Now what's our combined EV against these hands?

AA = -(81.5-18.5) x 17% = -10.71

KK = -(81.9-18.1) x 17% = -10.85

QQ = 0 x 8.5% = 0

AKs = (54-46.) x 11% = 0.88

AKo= (56.75-43.25) x 46% = 6.21

Total EV excluding rake = -14.47

Once again I'm shocked. I guess the questions here are: If I 4bet QQ am I comitted to calling a shove by someone with a range of QQ+ AKs, AKo.

Example

4bet QQ and facing a shove.

Pot =

Blinds 1.5

Raise 4

3bet 16

4bet 40

Shove 84

Pot size 145.5

Remaing stack 56

EV of folding = -44

EV of calling = -14.47

Clearly calling is correct.

* Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

5,245,194 games 4.422 secs 1,186,158 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.093% 53.86% 05.24% 2825112 274918.50 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 40.907% 35.67% 05.24% 1871082 274918.50 { QQ }