Being 3bet sucks!!

Rather than talk about my recent results I want to follow up my last blog entry and try and outline some guidelines to help me to play in 3bet pots. This I think I will call part 1.

Am I getting odds to set-mine?

Basic beginner's question and the standard answer some of the more experienced players will tell you is no; not when 100BBs deep.

Lets do some maths and see if this is true or not. Here I'll ignore opponent tendencies and just try to justify a call of a 3bet or not; rounding all numbers to keep things simple.

To keep it simple we'll assume 100BB stacks and blinds of 1 and 2.

You open 66 MP 3.5 X BB - Pot = 5BB

Btn 3bets 12BB - Pot = 17BB

Your stack is now 96.5 and it's 8.5BBs to call. Pot is laying you 2:1 in express odds.

If you call you will have 88BB left; your opponent also has 88BB left.

88/8.5 = approx. 10:1 in implied odds.

Express + implied odds = 12:1

The chances of hitting your set on the flop are approx. 8:1 and it's generally accepted that you're looking for something like 12/14:1 to make up for all the times that you miss/don't get paid/hit and still lose.

Clearly 100BB deep is about the minimum that you can call a 3bet and still hope to hit your target of 12:1.

That is the simple maths bit over with, now we need to add some player types and see if that changes anything.

Player 1 - Good solid TAG playing around 20/17. 3bets a lot OTB.

If this guy is a half decent player then calling his 3bet is not profitable. He will have a wide range OTB and will not be committing a lot of chips unless he too has a big hand. He'll be hitting bigger sets; straights and flushes when the money goes in and you'll not be able to extract value from him when you are ahead. He's not going to stack off with QQ on an Ace high board unless he has a really poor opinion of you.

Player 2 - Loosive-passive playing something like 40/10.

If he 3bets you then it's one of 2 things. 1 - a monster hand. 2 - He's tilting and fed up of being pushed around.

Now it does become profitable; he'll stack off with TT on a 9 high board; KK on an A high board; AK when he misses the flop - all scenarios like that. You can take him to valuetown and back again.

Player 3 - The nit. Stats are 12/9; 13/10.

This guy is probably not 3betting you light unless he is experimenting with opening up his range or evolving as a player.

Set mining against him in 3bet pots pays fairly well as he's reluctant to release overpairs and sees TPTK as the nuts in a 3bet pot.

Player 4 - LAG/Semi-LAG playing 30/25

This guy loves to 3bet both in and out of position. He's reversing the standard TAG psychology; open raise; everyone misses; cbet takes the pot. It really is going to be player dependent here as to whether calling a 3bet is profitable.

Player 5 - The maniac - crazy stats

If he's a true maniac he will be 3bettting all sorts of trash and will put a lot of chips into the pot with air particularly if you take a passive line. Hitting your set will be invaluable against him.

Player 6 - guy who buys in short

Here I'm not talking about a guy deliberately playing a short stack strategy but someone who is in the game to gamble. Clearly his stack size prevents you from profitably set-mining but you do have one option open to you and that depends on your own gambling nature. That option is the shove.

Player 7 - the Short Stack Hero

Again you cannot profitably set mine against him as he's usually shoving with about 20BB. Here you need to find his range. Does it include any PP? or 88+

Once you know his range you can decide how likely you are to be ahead of it; if you fancy flipping for his stack.

That's all for today but I'll be back with part 2 soon.

Any flaming can go in the add comments section below

3betting

A subject that has been occupying my thoughts quite a lot over the past few days as well as featuring heavily within discussion between myself and others. What should I 3bet? Who should I 3bet?

After reading many excellent posts on CR and also twoplustwo

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=85704">http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=85704">http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=85704

and here http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=plnlpoker&Number=6267939&fpart=1&PHPSESSID=
I have formed an opinion of my own. This is based upon my experiences at the micro-stakes.

Small to medium pocket pairs

I see so many TAG and sLAG regulars re-popping small-to-medium pp's preflop and whilst I wouldn't go as far as to call this a leak I do consider it a waste; and also highly exploitable.

Why a waste? These hands are most valuable when flopping sets; both in and out of position as sets hold up to be the best hand at showdown a very high percentage of the time. Why waste them taking down a small pot preflop or building a big pot that you're probably not going to be a favourite in; when you can play for stacks when you hit.

I also consider 3 betting small to medium pocket pairs to be exploitable. It's much easier to 4bet bluff someone who you know 3bets small pocket pairs than someone who has a polarized range or a range heavily weighted towards the top 3% of hands.

"But the guy OTB has a high ASB% and my hand is probably better than his?" This is probably true; but what do you do if he 4bets? Or calls and you miss the flop - how much do you want to put in with your underpair OOP?

"I have a tight image he'll fold if I 3bet." This is also probably true in which case you are still wasting your pocket pairs. If you are making this move based on your image then any two cards will do the same job.

Squeezing

A much favoured and oft over-used tactic. It can be effective and profitable but at the micro-limits certain conditions must apply.

1. You must have a solid image; if you've 3bet and shown down a marginal hand recently then you're less likely to get the respect that you deserve.

2. The original raiser must have a wide range from the position he's opening from. Squeezing is most effective against a CO or button opener.

3. The original raiser needs to be capable of releasing a marginal/speculative hand to a 3bet.

4. Perhaps the most important. The guy in the middle of the squeeze needs to understand that a 3bet = a monster and he should know that he should fold.

Wide-range vs. polarized range

These two paragraphs from the posting at twoplustwo I think sum up why a polarized range is much stronger (for me at least):

"I think of it this way, if I only 3b with nuts or air, then the person who calls/shoves on me is taking more or less a 50/50 risk. Half the time I have garbage and fold and half the time I have a real hand and stack them. But if I was to 3b a much wider range, then 4 betting me or floating me is much more profitable. That is because percentage wise, my weak-medium strength hands greatly outnumber my huge hands.

This of course is one of the perks of 3 betting a polarized range as well. It is just so less likely that your hand is dominated that when the chips go in the middle, you can be a whole lot more confident in general. If I 3b AQ and get action when I hit an ace, I only have to worry about AK as far as being outkicked."

Opponent

Below are ideas on who you should 3bet and in what position with what holding.

Any opener from any position - QQ+ AK. Sometimes JJ.

Nit - Any position. QQ+ AK. This guy is following his hand chart and will have a strong holding in EP. He may well open up somewhat in later position but not always. He may also call a 3bet with any PP thinking that he has odds for set mining. Take flops with suited connectors/small-medium PPs/suited gappers IP rather than 3bet. This guy isn't folding his overpair or TPTK.

TAG - A good TAG understands the power of position and will have a very wide range OTB. 3betting with air from the blinds will work well. He'll fold a good majority of the time and when he doesn't a cbet on most dry flops will take the pot down. Suited connectors will not be as effective against him. 3betting him when you have position will also work well as he'll hate playing a marginal holding OOP.

sLAG - This guy will have a high ASB% and a wide opening range from any position. Stick to a polarized range against him but avoid 3betting with air unless you know he will lay down to a 3bet against you. He's another guy who hates playing OOP which is why he'll 3bet small-medium pp's out of the blinds as well as dominated broadway cards.

Maniac - Stick to premium starting hands and be prepared to felt if you hit. Surprisingly the potentially dominated broadway card pairings like AJ/KQ (which you should play cautiously against TAGs if at all) are now profitable to 3bet as he's opening with so much junk.

Fish - Don't get tricky with this guy; he'll play his cards face up and ship you his money when you have a monster.

Deep stacked

Of course everything changes once you get deep. Big pocket pairs OOP are awful to play as the original raiser is probably going to take a flop with 100% of his opening range. A good player will also know that he can bluff raise you on many scary flops reasoning that your hand probably can't take much heat and that you may be scared of losing you're whole stack.

3betting suited connectors and suited 1 gappers in position are what you need here. You're less likely to be dominated; you can get away fairly cheaply if you miss and when you do flop big your hand is disguised and you have a good chance of taking down a monster pot.

That's all I can come up with for now - consider this more a work-in-progress than the finished article but I'd love to hear others views, whether in agreement or not.

"Verneer is a fish"

Lastly and more for comic effect I reprint an IM conversation that I had with a fellow CR member; it gave me a good laugh at the time:

XXXX says:
i remember last year when i was playing 25nl, i remember seeing this "TheXC" guy and i'd actually search for him because he'd spew chips to me non-stop
XXX says:
come to find out, it was verneer

I've not played much today - only 1,500 hands. 4+ buy-ins and I'm very happy. I haven't played much as I'm very tired. Last night when I couldn't get off to sleep I decided to play poker for an hour. Anyway; 2 hours and 1,200 hands later I packed in for the night precisely $1 down.

Although the session wasn't great monetarily I felt that it could have been much worse had I not been playing so well. It also gave me some good ideas for blog topics.

Swings

While I think that I played well I lost some big pots early on and it served to remind me of good bankroll management. I'm desperately keen to move back up to 25NL but want to make sure I am adequately rolled.

Hands that I lost were AA v UTG raiser holding JTs in a 3bet pot - he turned two-pair. QQ vs a guy who limp reraised KK. I'd just stacked him on another table in a 3bet pot with AQs v JJ. Raised 99 from BB into two limpers; flop a set on A high board and all 3 of us get our stacks in. SB has A6 for two-pair and turn is Ace for bigger FH. The remainder of the losses were made up of half buy-in type pots. Like double-barrelling a limp caller with QQ on a K high board; that sort of thing.

Laydowns

One of the reasons I think that I played well was that I was still able to make rational decisions and lay down seemingly good hands when I was likely beaten.

www.pokerhand.org/">http://www.pokerhand.org/?2224735">www.pokerhand.org/

Here I lay down trip Aces when an unknown caller shoves the turn. The turn completes a flush; he could also have a FH or a better Ace. This is a pretty standard laydown for any reasonable player yet a high % of players at the micro-limits that I frequent would have called his shove

Hand reading

The really great players have either a natural talent for this sort of thing or have developed the skills. Me; I'm still working on it but I was pretty proud of the read that I made in this hand.

www.pokerhand.org/">http://www.pokerhand.org/?2224786">www.pokerhand.org/

Here I make a standard open with AJs and get a call from the small blind - a really nitty player with stats of 12/3. I flop top pair and cbet which he calls.

It's now a question of working out what he's holding or at least eliminating what he doesn't have. A set of 4s or 8s is a possibility and I'm braced for a turn raise. His aggression stats are something like 1.5/0/1.5 and as soon as he starts raising me I'm probably mucking all but the nuts.

I turn two pair and the flush misses. I lead the turn and once again he flat calls. I can now eliminate sets from his holdings - this was effectively his last chance to raise. He either has a middle pocket pair which he is hoping is good; another Ace or a flush draw. At the moment I can beat all of his holdings.

Flush gets there on the river and he leads into me; but for only 1/5 pot. This looks to me to be something that we call a blocker bet and I'm guessing that he doesn't have a flush but wants a cheap showdown. I decide to raise his blocker bet for value but also to an amount that he can call.

He calls and shows a poorly played AKo and I'm pretty sure that I had a smug grin on my face.

I've learnt a number of things from this hand. 1; if this guy ever 3bets pre-flop get out of the way. 2; if this guy ever starts betting strongly muck all but the nuts.

Something that I didn't want to do; but my new coach has requested that I keep a blog of my poker adventures.

Here goes.

5,000 hand review
After my first coaching session on Sunday I was given a new pre-flop hand chart with instructions to play 5,000 hands. I've just completed an 8-table 350 hand session to hit the required number and stats can be found here:

I'm pretty pleased with my stats although I also know within that sample that I misplayed a number of hands and spewed probably about as much as I won.

Interesting hands
This hand is probably one of my favourites

www.pokerhand.org/">http://www.pokerhand.org/?2217965">www.pokerhand.org/

I open Q9c OTB (on the button) into a limper playing 40/8 and I also get a call from the SB a player with decent stats of 26/21. I'm not happy that the SB calls as it means that I'll probably have to hit the flop to take the pot down. I'm also trying to figure out what he has; it's not a premium hand as a guy with those stats is re-raising me with those. I decide that a small PP (pocket pair) is most likely.

Flop is great for me with two of my suit and a gutshot to a King high straight and I make the decision to go with the hand.

My cbet (continuation bet) is called by the SB; while the other guy mucks. Again I try to figure what he's got and decide that a set is his most likely holding although I can't rule out KQ or a draw of some sort.

Turn card completes my flush and I again lead out. SB shoves and I have an easy call to take down a nice pot.

SB shows KTh for flopped two-pair which he slowplayed on the flop. I don't like his play at all. Either preflop - calling with a potentially dominated hand - or postflop - slowplaying with all of the draws out there. I'm guessing that he put me on AK and thought that he had me reverse dominated.

I'll post one more hand (although I've plenty more that I'd like to discuss) and it's one that I lost and have been discussing with my peers as to whether I could have got away from it.

www.pokerhand.org/">http://www.pokerhand.org/?2217891">www.pokerhand.org/

UTG limps playing 31/5. I have a reasonable starting hand but it's not one I fancy raising OOP (out of position) so I complete the blinds getting good odds to take a flop. The BB playing 37/10 checks and we take a flop.

The flop is pretty non-descript and I have no interest in the hand at this point; it gets checked around.

Turn brings a K and I lead out with OESD (Open ended straight draw). The great thing about leading draws at this level (even OOP) is that the bad players don't see you coming and pay you off when you hit. My little stab at the pot is min-raised by the BB and flat called by UTG and I also call. I'm not surprised that they tag along as the broadway cards hit their range pretty well.

River brings what I think is my money card and as the flush missed the only hand that I'm losing to is a FH. I check my straight with the intention of value raising any bet; the BB bets pot and before I know it UTG shoves.

I'm now faced with a pretty tricky decision and I seriously consider mucking the hand. What sways my decision is the stats of these guys. I think that they're just as likely to play top pair or two pair this way as they are a FH. I shove and the BB calls.

Turns out that they had both flopped trip 7s and had slowplayed throughout. What I had thought was my money card actually gave the BB a FH. Oh well - still not sure if I could have folded the nut straight.

Last topic for today is position
My positional stats for those 5,000 hands can be found here:

Poker is a seemingly simple yet actually a very complex game. One thing that beginners fail to understand is how powerful position is. Being last to act in the betting is such a powerful advantage that it's often more important than your cards. The majority of your hands should be played from late position and the later the position the more profitable it should be for you.

The only other thing I want to add about position is a tip that I got from CTS's blog. I've now taken to raising any two cards from the big blind into the small blind if he completes - as I'm going to have position on him throughout the hand. Also if the small blind raises my big blind I reraise him right back. This is just as powerful as using the button as it's so hard for anyone to hit a flop and even if they do it's difficult for them to get paid off. The danger is that people get annoyed and try to trap you although because you have position it's so easy to swerve.

This has enabled me to turn a losing position into a slightly positive one.