There are times during your poker career when you have light bulb moments and I've had a couple during the past two months.

First one came in this hand.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?3348411

Villian is playing 51/7 and when he min check raises the river I know that I'm in trouble (doesn't stop me from calling though). What did this hand teach me? That the fish love to chase and really love to check raise the river whereas my goal in this hand is value extraction, coupled with pot control.

How has this changed my game? Against the fish I now tend towards betting the flop and the turn with my marginal hands and checking the river behind with hands that have showdwon value.

2nd revelation

This came about last week.

Limp caller is playing 53/7 and has one of those aggression by street profiles that is the opposite way round to a nit i.e. escalating. In this case 0.6/0.9/14 (yes fourteen).

This is the hand in question

http://www.pokerhand.org/?3348627

When he bets the river I figure that he can't be bluffing as he'll have to showdown and I toss my 5s away.

Afterwards I'm so curious as to what he was doing and he answers, revealing the strategy of these players:

Dupidstonk said, "wtf are you doing?"

cla123 said, "taking the big pot"

Dupidstonk said, "but I was always going to see what you had"

cla123 said, "ya what do i care i took the big pot????? whatt are u talking about"

Incredible and revealing; I now intend to check back any turn when I have a big hand and bet strong with marginal hands/air. Unfortunately he leaves the table shortly afterwards. However I am able to put the read to good use against another villian the following day.

This guy is on my table for about 50 hands. Playing 62/4, calling raises and not folding to cbets. The really annoying type. His aggression by street profile is similar to that above at 2.8/1.3/7.0. We've tangled a bit but nothing much when this hand comes up.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?3348641

I'm all ready to call a small river bet with 2nd pair when he shoves after I've checked 2 streets. My thought process in the chat box went someting like this:

bedje01: bets $13.30 and is all-in
Dupidstonk said, "now I'm curious"
Dupidstonk said, "why would you shove the river when I've checked two streets'"
Dupidstonk said, "and your river agg is 6"
Dupidstonk: calls $13.30
*** SHOW DOWN ***
bedje01: shows [Qs As] (high card Ace)
Dupidstonk: shows [9s Js] (a pair of Jacks)
Dupidstonk collected $28.65 from pot
Dupidstonk said, "because you're a donkey?"

Unfortunately he'd left the table before receiving my last smug comment.

Where am I with poker?

Tried some donkaments in Aug/Sep.

Won an 1,800 runner $5.50 donkament at the end of August for $1,500. Def. my prodest moment in poker. Followed this up with a 3rd place in a 5,000 runner for $800 (and would have won had it not been for a nasty suck out with top set against runner-runner flush)

If interested you can OPR my Stars usename "Dupidstonk" to see my results.

Cash games

Moved back to cash at the beginning of October. Things went well at 25NL for the first 13k hands +25 Bis. Then I hit a downswing of 13 bis (with a little tilt mixed in). Won a few bis back then went on major tilt which cost me 6 more. Again started to recover but played a session after a few drinks, which was fun but cost me. Another downswing with AK costing me 5 bis, vs AA,AA,AQ,AJ,J3o. Starting another recovery again now.

The power of the shove at the micro's is an oft mis-used play of which I myself am guilty of misapplying. I was being sweated by a fellow CR member yesterday and I shoved strong hands twice - both against his advice I might add.

I want to examine (for my own understanding) both of these scenarios and look at the dynamics involved in each hand. Both shoves were against opponents who min-raised my turn bets; a sign of strength or air.

Hand 1

www.pokerhand.org/">http://www.pokerhand.org/?2714174">www.pokerhand.org/

Villian is 21/3 and fairly aggressive. When he calls my cbet I'm thinking that he has:

1. an underpair and is willing to call 1 street on a paired board.

2. A good Ace

3. A boat

4. Possibly a FD

When this villian min-raises a seemingly innocuous turn his range can be narrowed further to trip Aces or a boat. I really don't feel that someone this tight bluffs very often. Since I'm ahead of (or maybe tying with) all of his possible holdings and he's very unlikey to fold a big hand; a shove here seems to be the correct play.

Hand 2

www.pokerhand.org/">http://www.pokerhand.org/?2714200">www.pokerhand.org/

Villian here is a different type of player altogether. He's playing 44/13/2. Clearly I flop a monster and am keen to get the money in as soon as possible. Hand reading with this guy is not so easy but when he min raises the turn I'm putting (hoping) him on a flush or TP/2 pair. Unfortunately he folds to my shove. This hand was misplayed . Why? Because air is a bigger part of this villian's range and with a river aggression of 6 (it was a very high %) the optimal play here is to call his raise and give him a chance to hang himself on the river.

Summary

Fast play strong hands against tighter opponents especially when facing aggression; slow play against looser players - save the shoves for semi-bluffs as these will be more profitable against a villian who bluffs a lot.

It's been a while since my last update - no real reason just laziness.

What's happened? Bust my roll on Parbet playing 50NL HU; spewed too much then chased my losses - such is life. $230 in rakeback arrived yesterday so I'm able to restart and don't see any problems in rebuilding; just need to stay away from the HU tables.

Having been forced to return to FT I have managed to triple my paltry roll on there grinding out 10NL. Decided to try a couple of tables at 25NL today for a change and this hand came up www.pokerhand.org/">http://www.pokerhand.org/?2709688">www.pokerhand.org/ Pretty standard flip but it did get me to thinking about what hands you should be willing to go AIPF with when you know someone else's all-in range.

How does QQ fare against a standard tight player's AIPF range. Assuming QQ+ and AKo/AKs it has about 41%* according to Pokerstove.

The pokerstove calculation however (I believe) fails to take into account the likelihood of each hand. Villian is much more likely to have AKo than AA. To expand on the calculation you need to understand the frequencies of each of the possible 169 starting hands in the 1,326 two card combinations.

Having searched for frequency calculations the best that I could find was here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability_(Texas_hold_'em)

Using this information I'll assign the following probabilities:

AA 1/221

KK 1/221

QQ 1/442 (remember we hold QQ)

AKs 1/331

AKo 1/82

Immediately we see that AKo becomes the more likely holding. Next we need to manipulate the base numbers so that we can assign %. Villian has 5 possibile holdings and the probability of each is as follows (using a base of 442):

AA (2/11.74) = 17%

KK (2/11.74) = 17%

QQ (1/11.74) = 8.5%

AKs 1.34 = 11%

AKo 5.40 = 46%

Total = 99.5%

Now what's our combined EV against these hands?

AA = -(81.5-18.5) x 17% = -10.71

KK = -(81.9-18.1) x 17% = -10.85

QQ = 0 x 8.5% = 0

AKs = (54-46.) x 11% = 0.88

AKo= (56.75-43.25) x 46% = 6.21

Total EV excluding rake = -14.47

Once again I'm shocked. I guess the questions here are: If I 4bet QQ am I comitted to calling a shove by someone with a range of QQ+ AKs, AKo.

Example

4bet QQ and facing a shove.

Pot =

Blinds 1.5

Raise 4

3bet 16

4bet 40

Shove 84

Pot size 145.5

Remaing stack 56

EV of folding = -44

EV of calling = -14.47

Clearly calling is correct.

* Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

5,245,194 games 4.422 secs 1,186,158 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.093% 53.86% 05.24% 2825112 274918.50 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 40.907% 35.67% 05.24% 1871082 274918.50 { QQ }

Since I've started on Parbet my attempt to steal has been on the low side of things to say the least. A lot of players particularly those obsessed with their stats will see this as a leak. I say that the only stat that matters is your win rate.

Now having got that off my chest I want to examine blind stealing in loose games.

I refer everyone to the excellent post by the prolific Pokey on 2+2 which can be found here

archives1.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php

Back to the loose games I'm playing in. A typical example of opponents who sit to my left in these games are as follows:

Player 1

Vpip = 43%

Pfr = 5%

Player 2

Vpip = 41%

Pfr = 8%

The next stats are from memory but they were both calling 1 in 5 raises and Player 1 folded to cbets 33% of the time and player 2 about 60%

Already it looks like stealing blinds against these two with marginal holdings is not going to be profitable but let's try some maths.

I open xx OTB 4 x bb. Pot = 5.5BB

How many times am I going to take the blinds uncontested? It looks like I'm going to get a call 40% of the time (although this figure is overstated but will do for my purposes).

Win 60% = (6 x 1.5bb - 4 x 4bbs)/10 = -0.7bb

Things are not looking good although so far this is based on the assumption that I lose my 4bbs when called and clearly this is not the case.

Ok some assumptions to simplify matters a little. I am going to assume that 15% of the time I am called by Player 1 and 15% of the time by Player 2 and allocate the remaining 10% to times when I am called by both.

I must stress that at all times here I am ignoring the actual cards and just dealing with the math.

10% called by both. Here I'm going to assume that I lose the pot. = 0bb

15% called by Player 1. I cbet 2/3 pot = 6bb.

Win 67%. = (67 x (1.5 + 3.5))/100 = 3.35bb

Lose 33% = (33 * 6)/100 = -1.98bb

15% called by Player 2. I cbet 2/3 pot = 6bb.

Win 40%. = (40 x (1.5 + 3))/100 = 1.8bb

Lose 60% = (60 * 6)/100 = -3.6bb

Overall the result is: -0.7+3.35-1.98+1.8-3.6 = 0.27bbs

Wow I'm actually shocked!! That is a massive result equivalent to 13.5PTBB/100. A nice win rate in anyone's book.

I'm off to recheck my Maths. The only thing to say I guess is that against thinking and adjusting players this isn't going to work.

Feel free to shoot me down in flames.

Been a bit lazy so I figure I may as well make a quick update.

Parbet stake race

I tried with all my might but I just couldn't overtake Vanisher to win the race. I finished a credible second and ended up at $450 (not $372 as reported).

Can't complain at being given the opportunity to create a free bankroll. Kudos to JimmyRare for organising it for us all.

There's one hand I omitted from the last post. The ever elusive Royal flush:

www.pokerhand.org/">http://www.pokerhand.org/?2506433">www.pokerhand.org/

This'll be my last update before the end of the stake race next Monday.

Again most of my cash play has been on Parbet as the games are so soft; it makes me think of what online poker must have been like in the beginning.

The "beat" mentioned above goes something like this: Donk, donk, donk, donk.....

Some fun hands:

1st small session at the next stakes up produced this hand. I think I have to call his shove with my Kings ;)

www.pokerhand.org/

I've stopped playing SC OOP after my coach dropped some hints as well as CR vids saying I shouldn't. However I'm not turning down those odds!! A lesson in why you shouldn't minraise.

www.pokerhand.org/

"But I want to see a flop" Fishing with AA.

www.pokerhand.org/

90/23 flush chasing with no outs. Needless to say his 600BB stack disappeared entirely throughout the session and he ended up rebuying. Just a shame that I didn't get it all!

www.pokerhand.org/

My favourite line OOP is to check/call or check/raise the river against habitual floaters especially those with a high bet river %. Villian here had taken the same line against me about an orbit ago and I let him have it. Here I snap call even with the 3-flush on the board.

www.pokerhand.org/

Even the tight players are bad. Playing 17/14 why is he calling a bet on that flop with that hand - he just ended up getting himself into trouble.

www.pokerhand.org/

Yes, I am betting for a reason. 70/17 guy is just not folding TP.

www.pokerhand.org/

It really is my favourite line OOP. Thanks for the odds on the turn.

www.pokerhand.org/

I have to admit that there's a chance that I'm running hot as I haven't suffered many bad beats that I can recall. Here's one, which isn't too bad a beat, against a 15/10 who made a real strange play. I can only assume he was steaming as he'd just ran pocket Kings into my pocket Aces on another table.

www.pokerhand.org/

Here my 41/10 opponent criticised me for my call of his turn shove saying it was obvious he had the flush.

www.pokerhand.org/

Lastly a lesson in paying attention. I thought that the other guy had reraised me preflop and 9's were more than good enough to stack off against him with. Doh!!

www.pokerhand.org/

Haven't updated for a while and need to as things have moved in my poker world. After having almost busted my roll on FT I've moved to micro-stakes heads-up SNGs to rebuild. I've a lot to say on these but that's a longer post for another day.

Parbet - mission accomplished

I said that my first goal was to build a roll and as a minimum that I'd like to double the $100 made available. I've achieved that with my balance sitting pretty at $215.00. Stats are below:

I've not played as many hands as I thought that I would have by now but the games are so soft I'm beginning to think that I've wasted my time playing on Full Tilt when there are so many newish UK and European sites with lots of bad players on them.

Here are some hand examples from the past couple of days:

Donk (imagine the noise, bit like a plonk) - www.pokerhand.org/">http://www.pokerhand.org/?1763484">www.pokerhand.org/

Donk - www.pokerhand.org/">http://www.pokerhand.org/?1763488">www.pokerhand.org/

Donk - www.pokerhand.org/">http://www.pokerhand.org/?1763492">www.pokerhand.org/

6 days in and time for a quick review. Haven't played as many hands as usual due to missing Tuesday (away at Funeral) and with FT having problems on Saturday when I was about to put in a decent session.

Stats so far

Stats are reasonable; win rate is ok. Although I donked off 6 bi's in my very first session which I wasn't very happy about.

Hands of note

KK vs. AA 160bbs deep.

www.pokerhand.org/

I'm honestly not sure how I should have played this. Villian is 16/14 and has a pretty narrow range for this type of play. My plan was to play for stacks on a non-Ace flop. I'm not sure he'd let me get away here trying to exercise some pot control and folding is pretty weak.

www.pokerhand.org/

Customary suckout against 80/40 maniac.

www.pokerhand.org/

Clueless - 40/5 guy limp reraises pocket 5s; calls a 4bet and flops a set.

www.pokerhand.org/

Here's a hand where I actually misplayed the turn. Villian is 37/11 and when he calls my flop 4bet I should really be taking my free turn and (hopefully) river cards to try and hit my outs. In hindsight he's not folding for $4.00 more.

www.pokerhand.org/

Quads vs FH. When I turn a boat I'm looking to get all the money in here and his line just looks like a club draw which gets there on the river.

And now the good stuff...

www.pokerhand.org/

Same maniac from the 2nd hand above. AQs so far ahead of his holdings. Needless to say he ended up losing the stack that he'd built.

www.pokerhand.org/

A pair and a flush draw. 13/12 rock opens UTG and I call with SC OTB. Aggro 27/20 squeezes from SB and donk 70/17 in BB overcalls in middle of squeeze.

www.pokerhand.org/

If ever there was a board to get away from KK on this is probably it.

www.pokerhand.org/

Dummy end of the straight costs the 32/25 dummy a stack.

www.pokerhand.org/

66/9 passive guy may as well have flipped his 2 face up as I knew it was there.

www.pokerhand.org/">http://www.pokerhand.org/?2396600">www.pokerhand.org/

When you are 3bet pre-flop and on the flop it's probably time to muck 2nd pair no kicker.

There are plenty more hands to list but I'll make this the last one. A lesson in how not to play flopped trips.

www.pokerhand.org/">http://www.pokerhand.org/?2396606">www.pokerhand.org/

Apart from spewing during my very first session of the month I've been reasonably happy with my play.

Parbet microstakes - donk heaven?

I've been fortunate enough to be accepted into the stake challenge organised by JimmyRare www.cardrunners.com/members/forum/ubbthreads.php

and was keen to get in ahead of time as soon as the funds were available to get set up and familiarise myself with the software.

First impressions - pretty damned soft. I can see some of the CR members building up quite a stack here.

Downsides - Not many players/some disconnection issues/no bet pot button/unable to reload during a hand.

Upside - filled with fish/lots of open raising for two big blinds/min 3betting/min value bets (bluffs).

My goal during these 3 weeks is to build a little roll so that I can continue playing there. I think a minimum aim is to double the $100 made available.

Having said that, after a reasonable start, I ended up dropping 20% of my roll before recovering to end up $5 for the two sessions that I played.

Hand 1 - I stack off with AQ on an Ace high board against a 25/11 guy in this hand www.pokerhand.org/
but it was heavily influenced by this earlier hand against him www.pokerhand.org/">http://www.pokerhand.org/?2396626">www.pokerhand.org/
(note the min 4 bet each time). Also this table was in sterling and not dollars which is actually a little more than this roll can currently support. Sticking to $0.03/.06 tables for the time being.

Hand 2 - slowplayed set gone wrong. Unknown opens CO and I flop a set OOP on a very dry board. With no stats avaialble I'm looking to check raise turn and do not fear giving him a cheap card to catch up a little but plan goes awry when he checks behind. On river I opt for check raise hoping that he's value betting worse or taking a bluff stab at the pot. www.pokerhand.org/

Fortunately as I said the tables are full of fish/donks and I managed to get my overpairs paid off a few times to recover my losses.

This guy was playing 40/30 but was raising so much crap that some well timed pre and post flop aggression was proving to be profitable against him. I took almost two bi's from him before he cleared off www.pokerhand.org/

Here I actually consider mucking KK to the check raise. I mean he must have a 2 to make that play right? But I was running hot by this point and went with the hand www.pokerhand.org/

Another donk ships his money my way. I do so love letting guys with a high bet river % shove their busted draws. I've no idea why he called my flop cbet. www.pokerhand.org/

Last one for now. 3 streets of value against 66/24 www.pokerhand.org/

I'm looking forward to getting back on to Parbet - just need to avoid the other CR members!