Nuteblog: winrates, masstabling, video, sne, health, et al

March 07 2011

Nuteblog: winrates, masstabling, video, sne, health, et al

Hey guys. Some people have noticed I haven't been as active on CR as of late. I've received a couple coaching requests and a few people asking me if I quit making videos. So for the six of you who are really concerned...here's an update.

For 2011, I decided to go for Supernova Elite on PokerStars. I set this goal for a few reasons, the primary one being I needs ta get paid. Midstakes+ games are getting tougher and tougher by the day. I am extremely skeptical of the possibility of real winrates over 5bb/100 (2.5BB/100) in the midstakes 6max games and above on PokerStars at present. Now of course some people will put up numbers bigger than this but it's EXTREMELY likely imho that those people are "top lining" (or a bunch of their results are from the past or they play a lot of HU or something). If you have not spent a significant amount of time simulating possible outcomes of variance using this tool, then you are making a big mistake:

http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tools/variance_simulator/

Nearly everyone I talk to about poker seems to have a marginal at best grasp of the meaningfulness of their short run results. Trust me, spend some real time with this application, and I guarantee it will change your perspective on results. As a quick example, it's possible with a 5bb true winrate over 3,000,000 hands to post a 6.25bb winrate if you are a sunrunner or a ~3.6bb winrate if you run terrible. 3mm hands is way more than most of you will ever play, but many people probably think = the long run. It doesn't. There is still a ton of luck in this game over huge samples.

One way to try to get around all this is to raise your winrate. There is a way to do that, actually. Don't play 100bb 6max or 9max holdem. Once you've reached a high level of mastery, it's just not a very complex game. Of course there are still edges and even near the top of the pecking order some regs are significantly better than others. But at the end of the day, there is just not that much "special" you can do at 6max 100bb holdem. If you want a high winrate, play in very deep games. Play heads up anything. Play mixed games. Play PLO (try not to suicide). But stellar winrates at manyhanded holdem are a thing of the past with a few exceptions (hey, someone will always run ridiculously hot).

So, back to why I want to go for SNE. The more and more I realize that I do not control my results to nearly the extent that I would like to think, the more and more I realize the value of guaranteed income. SNE guarantees that even if I run like absolute death I will still make six figures this year. It also will force me to play over a million hands of poker, which hopefully will results in some decent profits by year's end. Seems like a win-win. Last year I probably played 300k hands so upping my volume by a multiple of 4 will be tough but [insert whatever platitude about success].

Since I've been putting in so much time at the tables, I haven't really had the time or energy to focus on coaching related activities. I will probably get back to that and making instructional videos at some point, but right now I'm focused on actually playing poker and getting better.

So far I've played about 150k hands of cash (and also about 1,000 MTTs and SNGs, lol, don't wanna talk about it). I think I've gotten significantly better at poker over this period, and I've also become very good at handling a ton of tables. I usually play 16-23 tables of 2/4NL - 5/10NL 6max. This has been a big change for me since about a year ago I maxed out at about 9 tables. So how did I double the number of tables I can handle? Wow, I'm so glad you asked. My next CR video (comes out March 13) will detail precisely how I do it. There is no poker strategy content in the video, but I think it will be of a lot of help to people looking to up their volume. Most people reading this blog should probably work on getting better at poker before trying to play 20 tables and max out volume. However, it's possible to both. If you are an aspiring midstakes grinder, I think it's completely reasonable to have some sessions where you 4 table and think as in depth as possible about ranges, potential lines, etc, and then other sessions where you push yourself to play as many tables as possible while maintaining an edge. At one point in February, I ran into a frustrating breakeven stretch. I decided to cut down to 12 tables for a session and resolved to have a positive redline (this is usually a dumb goal imo, but ok for one session). I played 30/26 w/ a 12% 3bet over 4k hands and was winning in non-showdown pots. This is not how I usually play, but I feel I definitely got better at poker in this session. When I went back to nitdawg 20table mode, I was seeing more spots and playing a lot better overall. Give it a try.

On the home front, my girlfriend and I have been doing p90x for the past three weeks (clicheiknowright). It's been difficult (after the first session of pIyometrics I basically was bedridden for two days) but definitely worth it. I don't plan on drinking for this period save for St. Patrick's Day, of course (who all seen the leprechaun say yeaaaaah). Not being hungover on the weekends is amazing; would recommend it. Going out drinking with friends is so fun, but at this point in my life making a lot of money would be even more "fun."

Here are my mass tabling results (not going to post $ results in my blog anymore, sry). Hopefully I convinced you that results don't have a ton of meaning nowadays. Anyway, I run hot:

edit: I suck at posting images, I dunno...

http://i53.tinypic.com/2mg2mu9.jpg

http://i52.tinypic.com/7236e1.jpg

Entry Tags:winrates, masstabling, video, sne, p90x

2614 Views | Comments(11)

March 07,2011

Glad to see you are still active in the community. Good luck

Needbankroll

March 07,2011

welcome back. always good to have a nute post. you are totally right about variance too. i have been a steady 5bb/100 winner for several hundred thousand hands and recently had a 250k hand break even stretch. it didn't have to be that bad, but the part of variance that people don't even think about is how poorly you play when you are in a large downswing or break even stretch which jut makes the stretch worse than it has to be. we are all human, and when you run terrible for a very extended period of time it eventually affects the individual decisions you start making. i feel like i just recently accepted the volume issue as it appears you did. i think this becomes more evident the longer you play this game and see how truly bad you can run over an extended period of time.

tilllttt

March 07,2011

i just want you to know i will always care about you. sober or not.

omninihil

March 07,2011

where da gold at!

gambler2k4

March 08,2011

Does this mean you won't be playing poker for all that much longer after 2011? Because clearly after analyzing the state of the NLHE 6-9 max games, the logical conclusion for a poker player who wants to play longterm would be to learn another more profitable game!

ECart

March 08,2011

ecart- i think the games are profitable if you are one of the better regs 20 tabling. if you are a 4tabling up and comer tho, yeah I think it's smart to learn a different game.

nutedawg

March 08,2011

Hey nute,

My poker student referred me to this. I actually agree with ya about the winrate in cashgames completely. My hand is kind of forced to go for SNE too this year as i am a life spewtard.

Going to enjoy watching your next vid as it will def help.

I am quite tilted at the state of online poker as well. What happened to the days where we can 10 table fish at 5/10 stars ......

Anyways ill stop crying as if anyone shouldnt it might be me cuz i run like god. Get to sne nute, ill cya there

tcblade

March 08,2011

All this time nute has been preaching the virtues of playing FEWER tables while secretly learning to play MORE.

I feel dirty and used. And I like it.

Kynikos1

March 09,2011

free..im in!!

streetfamep

March 09,2011

here's a very interesting article from Noah that expands on your thoughts (very smart math guy): http://www.nsdpoker.com/2011/03/nlhe_6m_pros/

was written 2 days ago

gambler2k4

March 14,2011

Page 108: You dont list via

SixPeppers

nutedawg's Blog

Nuteblog: winrates, masstabling, video, sne, health, et al