Haven't blogged for a while and to be honest I haven't played much either. Still, this story from my last live game prompted me to blog.

Bad beat stories usually involve getting sucked out, but surely folding can't do that much damage? Also, most bad beat stories don't involve leaving the casino up 500 big blinds...

I played in the Victoria casino's £1-2 NLHE game the other day, and it was particularly soft. Not much really happened, but this was a profitable and low-variance game and I was soon up to £460 from my £300 buy-in. Then a couple of guys who were on the list for the £2-5 game sat down whilst they waited for a seat in their usual game and the whole dynamic changed. They both bought in for £400, and the first guy posts and then, after there were 3 limps, raises it to £25. Next hand he open raises EP to £22. Next hand he raises to £25. Then it's his big blind and (for some reason, maybe they hadn't noticed the previous 3 hands?!?) 4 people tried to limp. Of course he popped it to £30 and took it down.

I was sitting directly to this guy's left, so had ideal position. This was now an even more profitable game, but the variance was much higher. This was the sort of game where middle pair could make you 200bbs, or you could get stacked by the most improbable straight. As it happened I had already decided I was going to leave soon (I was on my way back from work in London and had to get a train home) and was only really hanging around trying to get into a good situation with Mr. Aggressive, when this hand came up. I was on the button with AJ. Quiet lady limps in MP, hi-jack calls and Mr. Aggressive raises to £12. I elect to call and we're 4 to the flop, which is 4H 6H JD. Check, check, Mr. Aggo bets £22 and I decided to call, with the intention of raising his inevitable action on the turn. Quiet lady calls and hi-jack folds.

Turn is 8D which is ideal - it's just the sort of card Mr. Aggro will think he can bet however...Mrs. Quiet now leads for £50 and has £75 left behind. Mr. Aggro folds and I'm left with a decision. My plan was to raise Mr. Aggro, but now why is Mrs. Quiet betting? If she had a hand, wouldn't she wait for Mr. Aggro to bet and then raise, maybe even with a call from me? But then again, she had limp/folded earlier so didn't seem to have paid too much attention. I looked down and my stack was £425. In this situation I'm going to shove (to charge draws) or fold. If I shove and am wrong I'm back to level, whereas if I fold I can leave with a nice profit. If I knew I was going to be staying for another few hours I'd call nearly always, but the thought of just booking a profit and leaving happy swayed me into folding. Mrs. Quiet proudly flips over A9o. I have to say, she probably read the situation quite well and fair enough - nice move. So I wait until my big blind and leave with my £125 profit.

Now for the kicker (and the point of this otherwise quite dull story!). The last few times I've left the Vic in profit I have stopped by the roulette table and put £100 on 23 red. On the face of it a large bet, but actually the EV is only -£2.70 or just over a big blind. And £3,600 sounds good to me! However when I got to the roulette table I thought "I'm £125 up, if I just put £25 down then I'll still have a nice £100 profit." Of course, if I'd shoved and Mrs. Quiet folds I'd have been nearly £300 in profit and would have done my usual £100 bet.

23 red came up.

Now don't get me wrong, £900 is a nice hit at the roulette table. Still, if only I hadn't folded...