I don't remember being so excited for a fight in my life. The only ones that come close would be Liddell vs Rampage, Liddell vs Ortiz, and maybe Cain vs Lesnar. Finally getting to see Rua against Jones will be a seminal moment in my MMA watching career. But before we get there, we have a handful of other fights to cover. Because I have a lot to do today, you get abbreviated picks, but they are picks nonethless...

Under Card

Luiz Arthur Cane finds the striking that had him on everybody's list before losing to Little Nog and wins with a 2nd round TKO.

I've only seen Njokuani and Barboza each fight once. That being said, Barboza was a MONSTER. His last two fights have been won via TKO due to leg kicks. Everything he throws is done with intensity. Both guys like to strike, so I'll take the guy with the sick kicks! Barboza by TKO in the 3rd.

Pelligrino vs Tibau is almost sure to go to a decision. They are very even in many respects and will nullify one another. It will come down to heart and consistency, something that Tibau lacks and Pelligrino has in spades. Batman by close decision.

I suspect that Ricardo Almedia is too experienced and, frankly, too good for the wildly inconsistent Mike Pyle. If they are both at their best, I may pick Pyle, but the smart choice is Almedia by sub in the second half of the fight.

Decision machine Assuncao can only win if he gets it to the ground. I don't have a good argument for why, but I don't think he succeeds in doing so on this night. Koch has a very dynamic striking repitoir. It will be enough to win by KO in the 2nd.

This looks like the UFC decided to give a showcase fight to Benavidez. His wrestling is so superior and he has looked so good against everybody not named Cruz...I just do see how he loses this. A late stoppage from GNP or lopsided decision is the pick.


Main Card

Lets get this straight: Cro Cop is done. Every fight he comes in talking a good game, but aside from landing a single shot, which is all he throws any more, he doesn't have much of a chance against most any top 15 type guy. While Schaub is not there yet, and while his win vs Gonzaga is not really all that impressive at this point in Napao's career, and while he was out struck by the, um, unrefined Roy Nelson, I think his vastly superior camp and hunger will be enough. If he stays patient and doesn't fo gor the deathblow, Schaub will outwork him on his feet on his way to a handful of takedowns and the decision win.

Nate The Great is not really all that great, but he is really really good - probably one of the 4 or 5 best non-Anderson Silva 185 pounders in the world. Miller is a tough opponent for almost anyone, but Marquardt's size and striking will be a huge issue here. His wrestling and dirty boxing have to have improved as he prepared for the human meat grinder, Yushin Okami (and after his loss to Shonnen last year). If so, that pretty much nullifies anything that Miller brings in terms of threats. Marquardt by TKO or sub after stunning Miller late in the 2nd.

Shalorus vs Miller will be a down and dirty brawl. On the feet, Miller has a huge technical advantage even if he faces a big power deficit. In wrestling, it is very even with one exception - Miller is relentless and has a bottomless gas tank. In any war of attrition, it is hard to pick against Miller, and this is no exception. He wins via hard fought decision.

Wineland has the power advantage, but in every other single aspect, he faces a more skilled opponent. Faber is quicker, has better technical striking, much better wrestling, and a bjj advantage. Plus he wants Cruz, and bad. I can see a scenario where he gets stunned, likely early or in a last ditch late surge from Wineland, but I don't expect that to happen. Faber will win via sub or GNP TKO in the 3rd after wearing his opponent down.

OK, on to the main event!

I've read a lot of articles leading up to this fight. Everybody has an opinion of how this will turn out, but most are in one of two camps:

1. Rua's experience and technical ability wins
2. Jones is too dynamic and has too much momentum

I fall firmly in the first, and here is why....

Too much too soon. I know that Jones is the prodigy. I know he is going to be champ. And I suspect he goes down as one of the greatest fighters in the history of the sport. He is one of the first of the coming younger class of uber-athletes to hit MMA - I am talking guys with world-class levels of athleticism who choose to fight over something like the NBA or NFL. But at some point, a 23 year old isn't ready for this. We've seen it before (ever heard of Vitor Belfort circa 2004), and I think we are about to see it again.

He is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy over-hyped at this point, and it sounds like he is starting to buy into it: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/638957-ufc-128-what-happened-to-the-humble-jon-jones-we-heard-so-much-about

Not good, Jon, not good.

What really baffles me is how we've forgotten that Rua out-struck the one guy that everybody thought it was impossible to do so against. They way he handled Machida in both fights showed that he is the single most disciplined, dynamic, and well rounded striker at 205. His kicks are absolutely lethal. He has the old school Chutebox aggression and one punch power. As he showed in the first fight against Machida, he posses the ability to be patient and technical as he picks people apart. Jones may be fast and crazy and all over, but Rua is an all-time great on his feet.

One thing people cite is Jones wrestling advantage, which he has in spades. But Rua is a very high level bjj practitioner. If Jones gets sloppy on top, the fight will end with his arm getting ripped off or neck compressed to the thickness of a straw. If he thinks his weird chokes will work on the veteran, he's wrong.

The other main factor here is that Rua has been so massively disrespected. IMO he should be -200 in this fight, but is +160. He has fought, and beat the best in the world (Rampage, Machida, Liddell, Coleman, Arona, Overeem, Randleman, Nog, and Gono). Jones has wins over 1 fringe top 10 guy (Bader) and some gatekeeper types (Matyushenko, Hamill, Bonnar, and Vera). The level of competition fought is not even close. Not even on the same planet. Not even in the same galaxy!

Could Jones win? Absolutely. Would I be surprised? Not in the least. But if they fight 100 times, Rua wins 65. I am picking the guy who is the much more well rounded fighter, who has fought better competition, who has more experience, has been to deep water, has a proven chin (Jones has NEVER been tagged), who has had a full camp, and who has somehow, inexplicably, been labeled the underdog.

The Pick: Rua, either by late stoppage or decision.

I feel strongly enough that I am willing to do something I rarely do at this point in my life - put my money where my mouth is. I have $200 I'm willing to put up to anybody willing to give me +180 (odds are currently +160/-200, so lets split the diff). Post in the comments or email jeff@cardrunners.com if you are interested. If I don't know you, I'll ask that you ship the money BEFORE the fight. Seeing as how I am CR employee who has escrowed about $20k over the years for various bets and fantasy leagues, you'll have to trust that if I lose, I'll ship your money.

First come, first serve!

-Jeff