I don't remember being so excited for a fight in my life. The only ones that come close would be Liddell vs Rampage, Liddell vs Ortiz, and maybe Cain vs Lesnar. Finally getting to see Rua against Jones will be a seminal moment in my MMA watching career. But before we get there, we have a handful of other fights to cover. Because I have a lot to do today, you get abbreviated picks, but they are picks nonethless...

Under Card

Luiz Arthur Cane finds the striking that had him on everybody's list before losing to Little Nog and wins with a 2nd round TKO.

I've only seen Njokuani and Barboza each fight once. That being said, Barboza was a MONSTER. His last two fights have been won via TKO due to leg kicks. Everything he throws is done with intensity. Both guys like to strike, so I'll take the guy with the sick kicks! Barboza by TKO in the 3rd.

Pelligrino vs Tibau is almost sure to go to a decision. They are very even in many respects and will nullify one another. It will come down to heart and consistency, something that Tibau lacks and Pelligrino has in spades. Batman by close decision.

I suspect that Ricardo Almedia is too experienced and, frankly, too good for the wildly inconsistent Mike Pyle. If they are both at their best, I may pick Pyle, but the smart choice is Almedia by sub in the second half of the fight.

Decision machine Assuncao can only win if he gets it to the ground. I don't have a good argument for why, but I don't think he succeeds in doing so on this night. Koch has a very dynamic striking repitoir. It will be enough to win by KO in the 2nd.

This looks like the UFC decided to give a showcase fight to Benavidez. His wrestling is so superior and he has looked so good against everybody not named Cruz...I just do see how he loses this. A late stoppage from GNP or lopsided decision is the pick.


Main Card

Lets get this straight: Cro Cop is done. Every fight he comes in talking a good game, but aside from landing a single shot, which is all he throws any more, he doesn't have much of a chance against most any top 15 type guy. While Schaub is not there yet, and while his win vs Gonzaga is not really all that impressive at this point in Napao's career, and while he was out struck by the, um, unrefined Roy Nelson, I think his vastly superior camp and hunger will be enough. If he stays patient and doesn't fo gor the deathblow, Schaub will outwork him on his feet on his way to a handful of takedowns and the decision win.

Nate The Great is not really all that great, but he is really really good - probably one of the 4 or 5 best non-Anderson Silva 185 pounders in the world. Miller is a tough opponent for almost anyone, but Marquardt's size and striking will be a huge issue here. His wrestling and dirty boxing have to have improved as he prepared for the human meat grinder, Yushin Okami (and after his loss to Shonnen last year). If so, that pretty much nullifies anything that Miller brings in terms of threats. Marquardt by TKO or sub after stunning Miller late in the 2nd.

Shalorus vs Miller will be a down and dirty brawl. On the feet, Miller has a huge technical advantage even if he faces a big power deficit. In wrestling, it is very even with one exception - Miller is relentless and has a bottomless gas tank. In any war of attrition, it is hard to pick against Miller, and this is no exception. He wins via hard fought decision.

Wineland has the power advantage, but in every other single aspect, he faces a more skilled opponent. Faber is quicker, has better technical striking, much better wrestling, and a bjj advantage. Plus he wants Cruz, and bad. I can see a scenario where he gets stunned, likely early or in a last ditch late surge from Wineland, but I don't expect that to happen. Faber will win via sub or GNP TKO in the 3rd after wearing his opponent down.

OK, on to the main event!

I've read a lot of articles leading up to this fight. Everybody has an opinion of how this will turn out, but most are in one of two camps:

1. Rua's experience and technical ability wins
2. Jones is too dynamic and has too much momentum

I fall firmly in the first, and here is why....

Too much too soon. I know that Jones is the prodigy. I know he is going to be champ. And I suspect he goes down as one of the greatest fighters in the history of the sport. He is one of the first of the coming younger class of uber-athletes to hit MMA - I am talking guys with world-class levels of athleticism who choose to fight over something like the NBA or NFL. But at some point, a 23 year old isn't ready for this. We've seen it before (ever heard of Vitor Belfort circa 2004), and I think we are about to see it again.

He is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy over-hyped at this point, and it sounds like he is starting to buy into it: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/638957-ufc-128-what-happened-to-the-humble-jon-jones-we-heard-so-much-about

Not good, Jon, not good.

What really baffles me is how we've forgotten that Rua out-struck the one guy that everybody thought it was impossible to do so against. They way he handled Machida in both fights showed that he is the single most disciplined, dynamic, and well rounded striker at 205. His kicks are absolutely lethal. He has the old school Chutebox aggression and one punch power. As he showed in the first fight against Machida, he posses the ability to be patient and technical as he picks people apart. Jones may be fast and crazy and all over, but Rua is an all-time great on his feet.

One thing people cite is Jones wrestling advantage, which he has in spades. But Rua is a very high level bjj practitioner. If Jones gets sloppy on top, the fight will end with his arm getting ripped off or neck compressed to the thickness of a straw. If he thinks his weird chokes will work on the veteran, he's wrong.

The other main factor here is that Rua has been so massively disrespected. IMO he should be -200 in this fight, but is +160. He has fought, and beat the best in the world (Rampage, Machida, Liddell, Coleman, Arona, Overeem, Randleman, Nog, and Gono). Jones has wins over 1 fringe top 10 guy (Bader) and some gatekeeper types (Matyushenko, Hamill, Bonnar, and Vera). The level of competition fought is not even close. Not even on the same planet. Not even in the same galaxy!

Could Jones win? Absolutely. Would I be surprised? Not in the least. But if they fight 100 times, Rua wins 65. I am picking the guy who is the much more well rounded fighter, who has fought better competition, who has more experience, has been to deep water, has a proven chin (Jones has NEVER been tagged), who has had a full camp, and who has somehow, inexplicably, been labeled the underdog.

The Pick: Rua, either by late stoppage or decision.

I feel strongly enough that I am willing to do something I rarely do at this point in my life - put my money where my mouth is. I have $200 I'm willing to put up to anybody willing to give me +180 (odds are currently +160/-200, so lets split the diff). Post in the comments or email jeff@cardrunners.com if you are interested. If I don't know you, I'll ask that you ship the money BEFORE the fight. Seeing as how I am CR employee who has escrowed about $20k over the years for various bets and fantasy leagues, you'll have to trust that if I lose, I'll ship your money.

First come, first serve!

-Jeff

After a good couple months of discussion, research, and more than a little soul searching, my wife and I have decided to leave the green pastures of South Dakota for the greener pastures, errrr, brown sand, of fabulous Las Vegas.

While the decision has been made, the move is not exactly setup for the immediate future. We need to sell our house and find my wife a j-o-b. She is a social worker with more than a decade of experience working in a nursing home setting. Vegas has a huge retirement community, so there is not going to a shortage of positions available. If all goes according to plan, we will be out there sometime in the fall or early winter, if not sooner.

There was very serious consideration to moving east about 800 miles to Chicago so I could join my coworkers in the CR office. A couple of major sticking points kept that from happening:

1. The cost of living in Chicago is astronomical compared to Las Vegas. Any increase in compensation Amber or I would receive would not be enough to allow us to maintain our current standard of living. I am obviously not keen on the notion of moving 14 hours from home only to subject myself to worse living conditions.

2. In order to afford a house we'd have to live far enough out that I'd have to rely on public transportation to commute to work every day.

As much as I want to be in the office, to get to know the guys better, I just can't see how it makes sense to add 2 hours to my work day and lower my standard of living. It just doesn't improve our situation in the least.

So why move at all?

Well, there are a number of things:

1. I think I'll be in a great position to assist our company year round with the various things we have going on in the Sin City. This will be especially apparent in the summer months.

2. I am sick of winters. The last two have been particularly brutal, and we don't want to deal with it any more.

3. We've long discussed moving to a metro area for at least a few years. We want to get the experience and if we don't do it now, we never will.

There are myriad other reasons, some personal, some minute, but they've added up to us making this life changing decision. We spent the last week informing family and are using this as official notification to friends.

Updates are forthcoming.

-Jeff

Bullet points:

-I did not get to see the Kid fight, but from the sounds of things, he just looked old. He has been in some battles and fought a lot of injuries over the years. He may just be an old fighter at this point.

-I thought Vitor looked really good and was going tit-for-tat with Silva before the kick. I really wish we could have gotten some more time in that fight as I think it was shaping up to be a fun one. His speed was clearly on display as he touched Silva in ways he has not been touched in years (no homo). Hopefully Vitor wins a couple fights and gets another shot.

-Rocha could be a god if he learned anything about how to punch. He is epically strong and reminds me of Jacare in so many ways.

-People do not give Griffin enough credit. He has wins over the current LHW champ and three former champs in Franklin, Tito (who he beat twice...the first decision was bullshit) and Rampage. This guy is among the elite in maybe the toughest division in all of MMA.

-Cerrone looked awful in the first. I don't know if he was sick or nervous or over trained or had to cut too much too fast or what. But his ground transitions were so smooth and fast. People don't give him enough credit at all. This guy has very very good muay thai, is amazing on the ground, has good take downs, and excellent take down defense. He can be as good as he wants in that division.

-Mendes is a couple fights away from being a world beater. I'd like to see him be more active on top and throw more combinations standing. But if you've seen his progression in the last couple fights, you can see this guy has no ceiling.

-Last night I was texting with knox828 and told him I thought Jones would be in the +150 to +175 area. Rua has been fighting a long time, is big, strong, explosive, and the best pure striker in that division. He also has very high level BJJ and a wealth of experience in big fights. Oh, and he has had a nice long camp meant to culminate on March 19.

Jones is really good, and will be great. But he is young, lacks experience, and has never fought a guy like Rua. His last two, and biggest, wins have come against brawl and maul wrestlers (same with the Hamil fight). Yes he destroyed all of them (Hamil included) easily. But Rua is not anything like these guys.

So I think +170 with Rua at -210 or so is about right.

Well, as we know, lines are based on a couple things (in very broad terms):

1. Which fighter is better overall
2. Which fighter has the advantage in terms of the style matchup
3. How the public will bet (books want even money on each side so they can get rich from the vig)

Clearly Rua is a better fighter. Clearly Jones has never matched up against a guy like this. Clearly Jones is the public darling.

All that said, somehow Jon Jones opened at -170. Yes, MINUS ONE HUNDRED AND SEVENTY!!!!!!!!

If you like money. If you like a good long term winning bet. If you know ANYTHING about MMA, you will immediately call your bookie and ship it on Rua.

At this point, I am actively cheering against Jones. I like him a lot, but I want the public to learn a lesson.

What an awful line.

--Jeff--

As the biggest weekend of the year (for a sports fan, anyway) draws ever closer, I think it is time for me to put in my obligatory picks and predictions. Before I get to the big game, I'll talk a little MMA, which, if I'm honest, actually has me more excited than the Super Bowl (I am a Bears fan).

If you are a fan of MMA, you are one lucky bastard. These next couple months are going to be epically massive. It stated a couple weeks ago with a great UFC card in Ft. Hood, continued with a solid Strikeforce showing last Saturday, and really amps up this weekend with UFC 126 (oh, and don't forget KOTC on HDNet tonight). Beyond that, we have the Strikeforce heavyweight tournament, three or four sick UFC cards, and the return of Bellator in March.

I think my panties are wet.

Yep, they are.

First things first; let's chat about UFC 129 this Saturday. The predictions...

Donald 'Cowboy' Cerrone vs. Paul Kelly

If this fight makes the 3rd round, it will have a great shot at being Fight of the Night. Cerrone is a VERY high level striker with much improved takedown defense. His opponent is a straight brawler with no pretensions that he can, or wants to, wrestle. He especially does not want to hit the ground with Cerrone, who has actually won almost all of his fights via submission (pretty crazy considering his Muay Thai background).

If the Cowboy can withstand the pressure of Kelly, his superior technique and long reach should prove to be the difference.

The pick: Cerrone by 2nd round sub after putting Taylor on his ass with strikes

Norifumi 'Kid' Yamamoto vs. Demetrious 'Mighty Mouse' Johnson

For the uninitiated, this looks like a couple of no-name fighters on the undercard. If you think that, you'd be wrong. Very, very wrong. While Johnson is young, in both age and career, he is a strong wrestler with a good ground game. On the other side of the ring, Kid is one of the biggest stars in the history of Japanese MMA.

Entering 2009, Yamamoto was 17-1 with victories over some of the best of the 135-145 pound fighters in the world. After a rough stretch, due in large part to injury, he seems back on track. Kid comes from strong wrestling background (he grew up wrestling in Arizona) and is one of the most dynamic and Yamamoto can knock your head off. heavy handed strikers in the world. It is super rare to see a bantamweight with one-punch KO power, but make no mistake; Yamamoto can knock your head off.

To me, this fight comes down to the first 3 minutes. If Johnson can weather the storm and find a way to take down Kid, it can be a fight. But I think the Japanese legend will get up huge for his first showing on a big US stage and end it quick.

The pick: Yamamoto by scintillating 1st round KO

Chad Mendes vs. Michihiro Omigawa

Two years ago Omigawa was a journeyman with a sub .500 record. Then he cut down to featherweight, entered the SRC Featherweight Grand Prix, and ran off 8 wins in his next 9 fights. While two of those wins (Hioki and Sandro) were, ummm, pretty questionable decisions, the fact is, he won. He has also beat the likes of Nam Phan, Hiriyoki Takaya, and Micah Miller.

Chad Mendes is a different animal though. He is a great wrestler with superhuman strength and Mendes lying on top of Omigawa for 15 minutes. smothering top control. Some say he is boring, but you cannot argue the results. There is a pretty solid chance this is a snooze fest that features Mendes lying on top of Omigawa for 15 minutes.

The pick: Mendes by lopsided and not very exciting decision

Miguel 'Angel' Torres vs. Antonio Banuelos

In the middle of 2009, Miguel Torres was considered a top five pound-for-pound fighter in the world. He was 37-1 and had not lost since 2003, a span of 17 fights. Then he dropped two in a row to a pair of fighters with styles similar to one another (good wrestlers who were hard punchers that swarmed standing up). The blueprint was drawn up: to beat Torres, you needed to hit him very hard from up close.

Banuelos is another guy cut from a mold not to different from Bowles and Benavidez (the guys who beat Torres). He is a grinder who is content to pressure opponents both on the feet and from top position. While he is not dynamic in any one area, he doesn't really lack for anything other than the ability to finish. That one thing is what will prove to be his Achilles heel on Saturday night.

Torres is tall, has a VERY stiff and rangy jab, super quick hands, and one of the best guard games on the planet. It can't hurt that he is now training with GSP's longtime coach - I think we have a man on a mission to prove he is still among the divisions elite.

As a bonus, a win here sets up a fight against Urijah Faber to get the right to fight Cruz for the belt.

The pick: Torres by some form of stoppage (I'll go with triangle) in the 2nd

Jake Ellenberger vs. Carlos Eduardo Rocha

I'll admit that I don't know a lot about Rocha. I've seen him fight only once, but he was impressive, even if it was against Kris McCray, who is not exactly a top 10 guy. The Brazilian has won each of his nine fights by submission. That alone tells me that Ellenberger will effort to keep this standing. Lucky for him, he is quite the solid wrestler who has only been submitted once in his career. He should have a pretty massive advantage standing, which will be the difference.

The pick: Ellenberger by KO in the 3rd

Ryan'Darth' Bader vs. Jon 'Bones' Jones

A couple days ago, a friend who is very casual MMA fan IM'd me to ask about this fight. He was considering laying the wood on Jones at -325. I told him I thought it was a pretty horrendous price as I think this is a much closer fight than the odds makers do. There is a serious love fest for Bones Jone, and rightfully so. Bader is a major prospect in his own right, and unlike Jones, he does hold a win over a top 10 guy (Nogueira).

Let's break this down by strengths:

Jones

-Dynamic, quirky striker that can give anybody fits

-Super, ultra, mega, off the charts athletic

-Speed, speed, and more speed

-One of the most aggressive and hardest hitters from top control over to step into a cage

-Really good wrestling

-Legit KO power

Bader

-Improving and technical striker

-Possibly the strongest physical fighter in the division

-One of the best right hands in the division

-Suffocating top control with solid ground and pound

-Experience going deep into a fight

-Really, really good wrestling

-Legit one punch KO power

I want to pick Bader so bad in this fight that it hurts. I really think he could win and that he is being so massively overlooked it is sickening........ I can't tell you how much I want to pull the trigger........................

The pick: But I can't do it..... Jones by 2nd round KO

Forrest Griffin vs. Rich 'Ace' Franklin

If not for the fact that Griffin has not fought in well over a year, this would be a super easy pick for me. Even with that fact, I still think he wins.

These are two pretty similar guys. Neither has great KO power but both possess a potent standupmassive for 205 - maybe the biggest guy in the division. That difference will be tough to overcome. game. Neither is a great wrestler, but both are dangerous from the top. The big difference is size. Franklin has fought at 185. Griffin is massive for 205 - maybe the biggest guy in the division. That difference will be tough to overcome.

Another thing working against Ace is the clock. He is 5 or 6 years older than Griffin and has 10 more fights of wear and tear on his body. In his last fight, he was being soundly beaten by a fight-weary Chuck Liddell before catching him with a single shot (this had more to do with Chuck's chin than Franklin's power). Prior to that, he was beaten badly by Vitor Belfort, won vs. a past his prime Wanderlei Silva, and dropped a close fight to Dan Henderson. Basically, he has done nothing to convince me he can be a top 5 (or 10?) guy at this point in his career.

The pick: Griffin by a well fought and exciting decision

Anderson 'Spider' Silva vs. Vitor 'The Phenom' Belfort

Let's get this out of the way: Anderson Silva is the best fighter on the planet, and one of the four or five best ever. Despite his odd behavior lately, he STILL HAS THE BELT.

Unlike the Sonnen fight, if Silva gets caught with his pants down this time, he is screwed. Belfort is an amazingly quick striker with massive power (I don't think it is a stretch to call him the most exciting guy standing in the world). He also is more than competent on the ground, with top notch BJJ and submission defense. Silva is more of a fluid puncher with a long reach who likes to counter. He also has very quick hands, tons of power, and is a world class BJJ practitioner.

If Vitor is smart, he closes distance and swarms the champ then finds a way to take this to the ground. If Silva can keep any distance, he can pick The Phenom apart. What will actually happen? I think Belfort will do what Belfort does and stand and trade. If this fight ends in the first three minutes, Belfort wins (think Shogun vs Machida 2). If it doesn't, his chances get worse the further it goes. Much worse.

The pick: Silva is the better fighter and wins this maybe 6.5 out of 10 times, but this Saturday night, Belfort will stun the world and win inside of two minutes of the first round by thunderous KO (I couldn't pick Bader, but I pick this? WTF is wrong with me?)

Super Bowl:

Steelers 23, Packers 21

-Jeff

So I was on College Humor just now and I saw a new vid spoof about Four Lokos, the alcoholic energy drink. This led me to their Wiki page where I read an about the FDA statement released on the ban:

"On November 17, 2010 the U.S. FDA issued a warning letter to four manufacturers of caffeinated alcohol beverages citing that the caffeine added to their malt alcoholic beverages is an "unsafe food additive" and said that further action, including seizure of their products,
may occur under federal law.

It declared that beverages that combine caffeine with alcohol, such as Four energy drinks, are a "public health concern" and can't stay on the market in their current form.The FDA also stated that concerns have been raised that caffeine can mask some of the sensory cues individuals might normally rely on to determine their level of intoxication."

I understand the concerns raised, but it makes me giggle to know that nearly every ounce of hard alcohol sold in bars to anybody under the age of 40 is mixed with soda which, as we know, contains caffeine. Also, if I am not mistaken, Jack Daniels sells a premixed Jack/cola. Interesting.

Maybe the ultimate solution would be to outlaw caffeine in general? How are nicotine, alcohol, and THC bad, but caffeine is OK?

But I digress...

In other news, I had a minor surgical procedure done on my arse (save all the gay jokes for your buddies after you've each had a couple Four Lokos). This rendered me unable to sit for the last three days, which kind of messed up my weekend and my work. I'm happy to report that I am back upright, even if I am very sore as a result.

For a full trip report, check out the thread on The Swamp.

Another effect of my malady was that I could not really play poker. Because I did not start chasing Iron Man until the 8th of Jan, I had no margin for error and ended up missing out. That's OK as I have been playing just horribly. Lets hope Feb is a new month.

-Jeff

I shouldn't have said anything about turning the corner. The doom switch was flipped and I've gotten beat up pretty bad the last three days. Mostly I am losing every big pot I play. So I did some checking and found a very disturbing trend that surely shows that I am calling it off WAY too lightly: I am down a SHIT TON when calling a bet on the river in pots of more than 100bb.

What does that mean?

I am seeing a lot of showdowns in big pots when I am second best.

I'll see about fixing this one pronto.

Next topic.

Jay Cutler is a douche bag. Jay Cutler is volatile. Jay Cutler makes some bad decisions. Jay Cutler is not a great leader of men. Jay Cutler is abrasive.

Jay Cutler is NOT a quitter.

The man tried to play hurt and was pulled by his coach with a sprained MCL. There was a report on ESPN where they interviewed a physician who says there is no way he should have been allowed to play after the injury.

So bitch about his play (awful). Bitch about his attitude (deplorable). But STOP BITCHING ABOUT HIS TOUGHNESS.

There, I feel better.

In more upsetting news, one of my employees, Jesse "knox828" Knox, put in his two weeks notice today. He is going to move on in his career as a HU donk and wants to be able to put all his time and resources into that venture. Of course, we wish him all the best even if he is a dumb head.

As far as replacing the guy goes, we are working on it. I am not yet sure how it will all work, so save your resumes and watch the forums for an announcement. It is possible we hire from within or put out an ad in Chicago for somebody to work in the office. In that case it is very possible that no job posting will be made on CR.

And now, on to the meat of the blog...

The other day a very conservative right wing friend on Facebook posted the following as his status:

Never one to avoid airing my thoughts, I replied. Before it could go much further, he pulled the post. How ironic, especially considering the whole, "I challenge you to post this" thing. I assume he did so realizing he just set off a firestorm. If only I had gotten to see the replies before he removed it.

So, what did I say?

First off, I cannot imagine anybody with an iota of common sense actually believing that religion does belong in our public school system. While the majority of the US population is still Christian, there are many taxpayers who are not. And their kids attend school. Just like you don't want my beliefs forced on you, I don't want yours forced on my kid.

If you look a bit deeper, there is a much more disturbing message here. His post insinuates that God having a presence in schools will somehow affect the odds of tragedy occurring. To this, I pose a number of questions:

1. Would God's being outlawed from schools cause him to smite those who attend them by ignoring them in a time of need? What about the Christians who go to school there?

2. Was God not allowed at Ground Zero on 9/11?

3. Does God take an active, hands-on role in the everyday life of a Christian?

Before I continue, I'd like to preface the rest of my comments by saying I do not believe in a higher power. I've not come to this decision lightly. It has taken a decade of thought and more study than ten average Christians combined. Before anybody attempts to engage me, I refuse to discuss my reasons for my decision, as they are rather private and very personal.

That being said, much of what I am about to say is made under the assumption I am incorrect and that a god of some sort does exist.

Back to the three questions!

If the answer to my first query is, "yes," then I am not sure God is an entity that deserves anybody's admiration and worship.

The answer to the second question is clearly no. This leads to numero three...

If God took an active, hands-on, role in a Christian's life, then why do terrible things happen to good people? Is it the famous, "He has a plan" thing? I mean, is it part of his plan to allow children to die of cancer? Is it part of his plan to allow unimaginable pain and suffering to rape victims or starving children or those involved in the floods in South America or Australia?

My freshman year in college at a small, private, Catholic institution, I had to take a class called Christian Tradition. At this point, I was still a believer and took the course as serious as any other. In it, I picked up two things that have stuck with me for the last 13 years.

The first is the instructor's, who is a nun, definition of a sin. She said that you commit a sin when you choose to do something despite knowing it is wrong. This is something that I've carried for years and is how I define my own personal morality. Give it some personal thought - it makes a lot of sense.

The other thing I remember vividly is the discussion of the Clockmaker Theory. It basically states that God made the clock, and now he is watching it run. This would be the perfect explanation for why the world can be, and often is, an awful, terrible place. I guess this would also mean that God's being allowed/not allowed in schools, or at Ground Zero, or the Middle East would have no real bearing on what happens/happened in these places.

The basic point of this blog was to take a dump in the face of the idea that God belongs in a public institution or that bad things may happen as a result his not being allowed. Hopefully my points are well made. As always, I invite comments of all kinds.

Oh, and Dan, you are a chicken shit for having pulled that status. If you have the balls to post it in the first place, be man enough to leave it up and take the heat.

-Jeff

Follow me on Twitter: @jeff218miller

First off, here is a pic of how fat I am today:



Sorry for the blurriness, but it is hard as hell to stand still on a scale while bending over to take a pic with a camera phone. I kept getting errors cause of my movement. Maybe I just need better balance?

FWIW, that is prolly a half a pound high since I hadn't taken my morning poop before I hopped on the scale.

I feel really confident about making the 190 threshold, even if it will mean cutting weight like back in my high school wrestling days (not a fun thing to do at all). No matter what happens, coming this far from almost 230 pounds back on Nov 1 is one of the prouder accomplishments of my life.

Poker has been going better the last few days. I've booked a profit in four straight sessions. If I'm honest, there has been some cooperation from both the deck as well as some awful players late Friday night, but I am also starting to get a much better feel for the game. After my last blog, I spent a significant amount of time in Hold'em Manager looking at hands and situations. As a result I feel a lot more comfortable folding hands like TPTK and over pairs in situations where I'd never do so while sitting at a 6 max table. It has really made all the difference in the world in terms of immediate impact to my win rate. Surely there are many, many more leaks to address, but this one alone will, I think, bring me to break even - or better.

I have it in my head to make a nice, long, poignant blog about religion and they way people perceive the roll of god in their lives and society as a whole. I was goin to make that blog today, but I've not fleshed it all the way out in my head quite yet. I think such a topic deserves careful consideration, so when I'm ready to post it I will. Expect it early next week.

One last major topic before I shove off. All the talking heads who can't seem to see a scenario where Chicago will beat Green Bay tomorrow are starting to make me just giggle a little. In a vacuum, are Chicago better than the Packers? I don't think so. But in this spot, right here, right now, I think the game is a coin flip and not the sure thing many ppl make it out to be for GB. We will see what happens tomorrow, but I am poised to see the Bears prove everybody wrong and head to Dallas in a couple weeks.

I wanna leave you with this song. The guy samples the Parks and Recreation theme song.

First off, the diet prop. I've not blogged about it, or anything, for months because, frankly, I've been really busy with CR work, poker study, Rush, and live games. So, where am I? With like 19 days to go (I think it is 19), I am hovering between 200-205 lbs. I will make the 190 with relative ease once I cut some weight the last week before. At some point here, I'll put either pics of a vid of me weighing myself for proof.

Considering I've exercised almost nil, I am pretty proud of myself.

If anybody would be willing to help me move $450 off of UB and onto FTP/PS and/or $150 off of Cake and onto FTP/PS, I'd be very very very grateful. Email jeff@cardrunners.com if you can hook me up.

Rush poker.....full ring...........fuck....

I spent a lot of time in December watching vids, trolling the rush forum, etc. Then on the 8th of Jan I started playing a ton of hands (considering I have a full time job and family). In the last 11 days, I've played right about 32k hands at 25nl. And it has been bad. My red line is fucking awful (-$514) and I've dropped more than 11 buy-ins. The best part? I am 3 buy-ins ABOVE my EV.

It is so streaky. I'll make all my profit in a 200 hand stretch then spend 1500 hands watching my profit drop steadily. I don't know if it is mental or game flow or both or what. I do know that every time I call, I'm wrong. Every time I raise, I'm wrong. Every time I 2 barrel, I'm wrong.

It seems my main leaks are:
1. I still am overplaying single pair type hands. As a converted 6m player, where hand values are very different, I think this is going to be the hardest thing to get past.
2. I have just BRUTAL timing in doing anything other than playing the nuts. I assume this is my fault and that I can prevent it from killing my win rate, but I don't know how to fix it.
3. My streakiness has to be mental. When I don't make hands, it just snowballs and I must be doing something different to keep it going like that.

Anyway, this was not meant to be a whine/tilt blog at allI am honestly hoping that writing all this down will help me think more clearly and work out what the problems are.

One more thing before I go, I am apparently now using that Twitter deal. Follow @jeff218miller.

-Jeff

With the impending day of doom looming over our heads, I thought I'd be lazy, go for some free hits, and re-post my blog from Black Friday last year. Enjoy.

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It is impossible for a deal to be so good that I would have gone out shopping today. Wal-mart could have been giving away Ferrari's and I would not have waited in line. There are some things I just absolutely fucking refuse to do, and waiting in line with aggressive, poor, chubby women and their idiot husbands to get the right to pay a store for something is on that list.

Yesterday we had Thanksgiving lunch at my brother-in-laws. After the meal, most of the men slept (I brought my laptop because I had to work) and all of the women plotted their shopping excursion. This took them two hours. If they put half as much thought into not pissing away money in the first place, they would not be getting up at 3am to get in line to save $25 on a dvd player. I think that is what really bothers me about the type of person who does the Black Friday thing. They are willing to blow $40 a week on cigarettes, $75 a week on fast food, etc., but saving $10 on a 12" skillet is the holy grail. Really?

I am not rich in any way, but I wouldn't get dressed and leave my house for $25, much less get up 5 hours early and fight sexually frustrated moo-moo's for a place in line in order to save that (especially if it means I still have to spend $50).

I hate people.

-Jeff

Last week was a busy one for so many reasons. Among everything else in life, finding that 1 hour a day to workout has been not super easy. Add in that I am playing a lot more poker, and you have a recipe for a full DVR... Speaking of DVR's, be sure to catch the ESPN broadcast of the WSOP final table on Tuesday. CR has three guys decked out in our logo. It is pretty freaking amazing to see.

So far the poker has gone mostly well. I have been playing a lot of 25nl 6max rush on FTP with solid, if mixed, results. I think that if I could just avoid having AA, I'd be ok. For the month, here is my AA graph:



I would like to state that I did lost hand 12 or 13 (where there is the one dip) because I forgot where the fold button was. Otherwise, it has been pretty awful.

My plan is to grind out a decent (25-30k?) number of hands there before seeking out my leaks or possibly giving FR a try. My little HU experiment of the past couple months, coupled with dealing in a local game, has really changed a lot of the way I think about the game. I am shoveling a lot less, value betting a lot more, and folding about 50000000000 times more often than in the past. It is a bit of a small ball style, but so far it seems to be working.

Speaking of working, my diet is going well. I am down 4 lbs in week 1 and feel very positive about things. I'm getting up earlier in the day, eating a solid breakfast (generally oatmeal), and have been hitting the p90x with regularity. My overall diet consists of smaller meals, very little fat (under 25g a day), fewer carbs, no red meat, and a total caloric intake of 800-1200 daily. Considering before I was probably closer to 80g of fat and 3000-5000 calories daily, this is a vast improvement.

Weight: 223.7
Days left: 93

-Jeff