I've been reading Elements of Poker by Tommy Angelo I'm really enjoying it so far. In his Element 34, Anticipation, he writes that in a headsup pot, when you bet or raise, there is one single thing that you need to anticipate, and that is a re-raise. If the villain folds, you're done with the hand. If he calls, you need to deal with the next card which is a different situation. So there's only one thing you need to anticipate for the cards on the board right now, and that is a raise or re-raise. When I've played poorly in a hand I've been surprised when I've been raised sometimes and not known what to do. Poor planning. (Obviously, if you're just bluffing a cbet and you get raised you just give up the hand normally, but I'm talking about hands where you've actually got something.)

This morning I got in a few hands and had a situation where I had planned ahead after the flop and was ready for it (sadly for me I didn't make my drawing hand but that's okay, I played it the way I wanted to):

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Seat 1: dory1313 ($20)
Seat 2: rjrat84 ($91.20)
Seat 3: Matthewrax ($65.65) Sitting Out
Seat 4: tialevanen ($49.25) -
Seat 5: Dr KristianTroy ($56.25) -
Seat 6: Canes-in-06 ($50.25) -


PRE-FLOP:

Dr KristianTroy posts small blind $0.25
Canes-in-06 posts BIG blind $0.50
Dealt To: Canes-in-06


CHECK dory1313
FOLD rjrat84
FOLD tialevanen
FOLD Dr KristianTroy
RAISE Canes-in-06 ($1.75)
CALL dory1313 ($1.25)


FLOP:

Pot: $3.25


BET Canes-in-06 ($3)
RAISE dory1313 ($18.25)

Excellent, this is fine with me and I'm ready to try for the straight here against the short stack who is all in.

CALL Canes-in-06 ($15.25)



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After looking over the January sessions on Pokertracker I found I had been less aggressive on the flop than I had in December and I think I could have improved there. I found myself too worried about being raised or check-raised and reading a dangerous texture to the board when it really wasn't there, I think.

Yesterday I watched the video where sbrugby and Green Plastic sweated Ezra (1-25-08 video) and Brian said something on that video that really connected with me. Ezra was worried about a check-raise from the villain and Brian said "it's not the end of the world when we get check-raised."

And, of course, he was right. If they're giving you the pot on your cbet it makes up for the occasional check-raise. Obviously doing a cbet into four callers is a different situation but most of the time you're sitting there against one other opponent and he probably missed the flop. Even better yet, your opponents may eventually play back at you when you hit the flop.

On a separate note, I played briefly this morning and hit quads on the flop. I checked the flop and turn, hoping my opponent would hit something, anything. Finally on the river he bet and I min raised him, and he folded. Too bad, but I think I made the most I could have there. The very next hand I was in the SB and had a pocket pair of 8s and called the same guy's original raise, hoping to set mine, and fortunately I hit my set. He led out, I raised, and he must have had enough and shoved in with Kings. He sort of got coolered, but I think he shoved in out of frustration at me raising him two hands in a row. That was something that got mentioned in the same video as well - the villain doesn't know I have hands, he just sees me apparently picking on him after he folded the previous raise. It's important to remember how the table perceives you - they don't know you have a hand. So if I had raised him without a hand there, I would have lost the raise money because he was perceiving me as overly aggressive.

A couple nights ago I played for an hour on a 25NL table with verneer and other CR members. Whooo, that was hard work. It played at a much higher level than 25NL (well, I assume so - it's not like I'm playing 200NL every day) and my main goal was to not look like a total donkey. I was very happy with my play; I believe I played better than I ever have before.

Things I learned: - Stop just calling raises pre flop with very good hands. Re-raise! (So far this comes up a lot less than I'd hoped at 25NL since I keep hitting tables where everyone limps until I raise and then they just call me - but I'm sure it will come up more as I get more hands in)

- Fish are wonderful, be happy they are around. I have never worked harder than I did that hour. I was having a blast, though.

- Hey, maybe I have potential! I ended up really feeling good about this session. Really good. I didn't ever hit any sets or felt anyone with a monster hand but I still managed to end up grinding out nearly a full buy in after an hour. Obviously a very small sample size but I was really happy that I adjusted my game for the table.

I've said it on the forums, but I'll add it here too. Thanks to verneer for taking the time to play some 25NL games with us micro stakes guys. Also, I can really see how a coaching session could help. I wasn't being coached but I played knowing I was being seen by one guest pro and four other CR members and it made me think about my play and what I should be doing. I'll probably look into a coaching session in late spring or early summer when I have hopefully moved up to 50NL.

---

On a January wrap up - I ended up okay with a profit but I'm a bit disappointed after the excellent December. I looked over PT and yes, I took a couple huge coolers (and one idiotic one - how did I not see the probable straight on the board?) but I wasn't nearly as aggressive on the flop and turn as I was in December. It's one thing to not bet out into four people on a drawy board but I was apparently quite the wuss in January and I need to stop that. The session I played with the CR members really showed that.

Yesterday in my second orbit on a table I picked up QQ in the small blind and three bet a button raiser, who folded. As luck would have it, the next hand gave me AA on the button and the same guy raised and called my three bet, no doubt deciding that I was getting out of hand. I was able to extract a lot of value out of him since he had a top pair/ace kicker but he should have been more careful of overpairs and sets. He really bet hard and I was worried he had a set.

I later, on a different table, beat someone out of a decent sized hand with two pair and he went on a super monkey tilt, basically hugely overbetting for an orbit or more. Since I was the winner of the pot that tilted him I basically stayed out of the pot unless I had an excellent hand and the as luck would have it I got kings about 8 hands later and took the rest of his stack. I've never quite understood why people decide to empty out the rest of their stack like that - take a break, dude.

In both cases listed above, something caused both villains to maybe play differently than they probably would have (although villain #1 had a good hand, it's debatable whether he would have been reraising me on the turn, etc) and it cost them money in the end. Both cases were pretty obvious, but I'm going to try to be on the lookout for more subtle times when someone's playing back at me and try to avoid overdoing the same if I play back at someone.

I travelled a bit at the end of December so my number of hands tapered off but here's the final December stats with nearly all the hands at 25NL:

18.13/12.33/2.40 Total won $317.15 over 5393 hands

I'd really like to thank everyone at Cardrunners for the changeover in my cash game. I didn't play cash games very well and spent most of the year playing SNGs and losing small amounts of my SNG profits at the ring games. I started Cardrunners sometime in October and had a winning November and December while also moving up in levels.

My 2008 goal, I guess, is to keep working towards the improvement I saw at the end of the year. I'd like to be able to build the bankroll up enough to cash some out for fun stuff and not really notice the bankroll drop.

I played for just shy of an hour last night on a laptop while i waited for my kids to fall asleep on Christmas Eve. The screen is pretty small so I just single tabled and ended up winning several huge hands. I don't suppose a BB/hr of 236.77 is sustainable

Two of the bigger hands, though, were interesting. In one of them, I had a total read on the villain - he was perfectly predictable and I was able to exploit it. The second one a different villain tried to bluff me but his story through the hand didn't seem to add up to what he was bluffing and I took a chance.

First hand: the villain here was very active (38.3% VPIP, 23.4% preflop raise, 2.7 total aggresion over 94 hands) and made a lot of pot sized continuation bets. I started to wonder if he overbet his cbets when he missed and after a few showdowns I noticed that when he hit on the flop he checked and he appeared to bet when he missed. I'm guessing a little because he got a lot of folds on his cbets but it looked like every hand that he won at showdown and hit on the flop had him checking. So when I had the hand below I actually checked on the flop to find out what he had. I figured if he bet pot, he missed. When we went all in I just hoped he didn't have any draws:

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Seat 1: Hero ($80.60) -
Seat 2: eown ($27.40) -
Seat 3: pokerzone1 ($22.95)
Seat 4: Villain ($49.35)
Seat 5: traxamillion ($25.60)
Seat 6: Iroquois ($25.20) -


PRE-FLOP:

Hero posts small blind $0.10
eown posts BIG blind $0.25
Dealt To: Hero


FOLD pokerzone1
RAISE Villain ($0.75)
FOLD traxamillion
FOLD Iroquois
RAISE Hero ($2.25)
FOLD eown
CALL Villain ($1.50)


FLOP:

Pot: $4.75


CHECK Hero
BET Villain ($4.75)
CALL Hero ($4.75)


TURN:

Pot: $14.25


BET Hero ($7.50)
RAISE Villain ($42.35)
CALL Hero ($34.85)


RIVER:

Pot: $98.95




SHOWDOWN:
Villain:

Hero:


Hero collected $95.95 from main pot with a pair of Queens

SUMMARY:
Total pot: $98 Rake: $3

Final Board:


Seat 1: Hero small blind showed [Qh Qs] and won 95.95 with a pair of Queens - Net Gain/Loss: ($46.6)
Seat 2: eown big blind folded before the Flop - Net Gain/Loss: ($-0.25)
Seat 3: pokerzone1 didnt bet folded - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)
Seat 4: Villain showed [9c 7c] and lost with a pair of Nines - Net Gain/Loss: ($-49.35)

Seat 5: traxamillion didnt bet folded - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)
Seat 6: Iroquois button didnt bet folded - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)


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The second hand dealt with a player that I've seen at the tables a few times and he seems like a decent player. I felt that when he pushed it all in after what I felt was a value bet on the river by me that he was just trying to get me to fold. Could he really check if he hit the back door flush there? He seems to be competent and I think he bets a few bucks there for value if he hits a flush. I also don't think he pushes with a pair of jacks, particularly after I bet - he probably just calls - and if he had a deuce would he have bet out on the turn? His big mistake is that he didn't have a ton of fold equity left by the time he pushes - my pot odds are pretty decent by then. This was a scarier call for me than the first hand but I just didn't see what he was trying to represent there that he wouldn't have bet earlier. I think I should have raised after his flop bet though to just take the pot there. Tens is not that strong, particularly since he's likely to have overcards. Free hand converter brought to you by CardRunners

Seat 1: Hero ($58.85) -
Seat 2: eown ($27.85) -
Seat 3: pokerzone1 ($19.50) -
Seat 4: yAAnos ($52.50)
Seat 5: Villain ($25)
Seat 6: Iroquois ($23.95)


PRE-FLOP:

eown posts small blind $0.10
pokerzone1 posts BIG blind $0.25
Dealt To: Hero


FOLD yAAnos
RAISE Villain ($0.85)
FOLD Iroquois
CALL Hero ($0.85)
FOLD eown
FOLD pokerzone1


FLOP:

Pot: $2.05


BET Villain ($1.50)
CALL Hero ($1.50)


TURN:

Pot: $5.05


BET Villain ($3.75)
CALL Hero ($3.75)


RIVER:

Pot: $12.55


CHECK Villain
BET Hero ($6.75)
RAISE Villain ($18.90)
CALL Hero ($12.15)


SHOWDOWN:
Villain:

Hero:


Hero collected $47.85 from main pot with two pair, Tens and Twos

SUMMARY:
Total pot: $50 Rake: $2.50

Final Board:


Seat 1: Hero button showed [Td Th] and won 47.85 with two pair, Tens and Twos - Net Gain/Loss: ($22.85)
Seat 2: eown small blind folded before the Flop - Net Gain/Loss: ($-0.1)
Seat 3: pokerzone1 big blind folded before the Flop - Net Gain/Loss: ($-0.25)
Seat 4: yAAnos didnt bet folded - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)
Seat 5: Villain showed [Qh Ks] and lost with a pair of Twos - Net Gain/Loss: ($-25)

Seat 6: Iroquois didnt bet folded - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)


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December numbers to date:

18.2/12.45/2.43 4491 hands Net gain $308.30

I have still been running good lately and am trying to figure out why, in the hopes that I can remember what to do when I inevetibly go cold (probably starting today). It seems like I only do this when I run bad, and just assume I'm getting really good when I win, but most of the time it's just not being unlucky in the big pots if you are making good decisions.

First, my December stats so far:

17.3/11.9/2.8/2488 Net gain $277.35 (this is at 25NL)

I've looked over the big wins and the big losses and I've had a couple big hands that held up - Aces versus Kings on the third hand of a session that holds up is a nice start. When variance hits I suppose I lose there, but my aces held up yesterday. I feel like generally I'm not dumping out as many dumb river calls lately - maybe I'm getting robbed here and there by a worse hand but I'm also on occasion extracting more value on the river lately too. I am also trying to pay attention to showdowns that I'm not involved in because you can label who calls down with any pair and who bluffs all the way to the river. I haven't truly been able to use that but I've been really trying to pay attention to that right now.

As a practical point that paying attention to a player's tendencies: I did play against someone yesterday who I had a note on and had played with a lot and I folded a set against what I'm certain was a flush on the river because my note was that the guy plays suited cards for flushes. I've made a bunch off of him because he makes bad mathematical calls for flushes (or I have a higher flush - he will play ANY two suited cards) but I know I saved money by folding that set. So knowing that player's playing style paid off by me not giving him $9 more on the river even though I had a very good hand. So if I recognize a calling station or a bluffer from other people's showdowns I'm going to try to use that information in my hands.

I've been playing an 3 or 4 tables rather than two now and playing tighter now and I think that's helped make my decisions easier. I will probably try to loosen up when I get more comfortable with four tables. It's pretty weird how I'll be 22% on one table and 8% on another - sometimes you just go card dead on a table. One thing I've learned, though, is that at the 25NL level I think there's fewer people using PAHUD so periodically loosening up using what you feel is a tight table image just doesn't always work since some players are just not thinking at that level or aware that you've been so nitty.

Sadly, now that I've talked about a good run it'll all fall apart now. Really, Poker Gods, this wasn't a brag post! I'm just trying to figure out what I'm doing right for a change.

I had a great session tonight. I won one very big hand but also did well overall even without that hand. I think I made generally correct decisions and laid down a couple good hands. I probably played a couple hands at the turn that I should have just folded, but otherwise I'm pretty happy with my decision making in general. I feel I did a better job of value betting on the river with weakish hands at the right time. In the past I think I've been more likely to just check it down.

The big hand:

The Villain in the chat said he thought he had JT and mixed up multiple tables. I don't know if he did or just tried to save face, but I'm glad he didn't, obviously. I was a bit concerned that he had a Jack full house but by then most of the money was in anyway.

I looked at my big loser hand where I lost 12.80 and I think I played it too strongly on the flop. Nothing too interesting, I just should not have 3 bet him. I feel he had a flush draw and I suspect the nut flush draw since he called my 3 bet. Naturally the next card was a third club and I had to give it up. Just too wild with an overpair. I had been on a good streak and I think I just needed to calm down a bit.

Dec 10 25NL: Net winnings $82.30, 20/14/3.08 239 hands

December to date: $170.90, 18.5/13/2.84 1537

So far December is working out for me in 25NL. I think I had a few moments of spew tonight, which was unfortunate, but I had enough good play and cards to overcome that. I was just a little disappointed that I didn't just fold smallish river bets when I was pretty confident that I was beat. It's just not worth the extra dollar or two to verfiy you're beat. I'll work on that next session.

December 7 Net winnings $0.15. Whoo! Kept the December "No losing days" streak alive after carving out a little hole at first.

Dec 8 Net winnings $28.95 - VPIP 19.5%. December to date: $88.60.

I was travelling the past few days and 100% away from a computer, aside from printing boarding passes so I've been really feeling like getting a few hands in. I just played a brief session because I've been on the go all day getting home but it was a good session. I found a villain who would basically c-bet every time and I exploited the bigger pots when the board looked harmless with a 3 bet on him which he would fold. I'm happy I noticed that - it makes me feel like I'm really improving in my game so far.

Dec 6

107 hands, 21.5% VPIP, Amount won $28.05 (December total $59.50)