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This is a popular topic with
my clients, and I'm guessing it might also be one with you guys. Please feel
free to share your own perspective on the topic, via the comments.
Floating vs. Raising
We call our opponent's raise
in position preflop. The flop comes down and mostly misses us. Perhaps it
misses him too. Perhaps we have some meaningful amount of fold equity. How do
we proceed most profitably? Here are some considerations.
Villain Stats
The first question should be
whether to bluff at all. How high is his continuation bet? If it's over 75%, go
for it. If it's under 50%, give his c-bet respect.
Next look at his turn c-bet.
If his turn c-bet is over 50%, lean towards raising the flop (versus floating).
For these statistics, remember that you need a large enough sample size for
them to be meaningful. If you don't know how to check the sample size of these
stats in your HUD, figure it out. It's imperative. Interestingly, turn
aggression % converges much faster than turn c-bet, but it is not as directly
relevant. Using turn aggression, if it's higher than 30%, lean towards raising
the flop.
And in some cases, if his
flop c-bet is very high AND his turn c-bet is very high, then consider floating
or raising his turn bet, but this is beyond the scope of this discussion.
Also, when evaluating these
statistics, factor in his preflop raise % as well. The more narrow a villain's
starting range, the more likely he will make TP+ on the flop, and the less fold
equity you will have with your bluff. For example, cut-off versus button and
blind versus blind scenarios tend to provide the most opportunities.
Board Texture
After stats, consider the
board texture. Can you really represent anything by raising? For example, on a
553 rainbow flop, raising usually only rep's a boat or quads (4 combos).
Raising on a 963 rainbow board however represents 9 sets. On paired boards with
a higher paired card, like TT4 or QQ7, you can often reasonably represent
trips.
On wetter, boards you generally
have less fold equity. The villain will be more likely to either 1) put you on
a draw or 2) have the draw himself. However, if the obvious draw comes in on
the turn, then it's easier to get
your opponent to fold. As an example: I like raising straight draws on double-suited
boards, and then bluffing the flush if it hits. You should be studying the flop
texture and searching for ways the board could run out that enable you to push
your opponent off his hand.
One big reason for not raising the flop (and just calling
instead) is if you think your opponent is very likely to reraise you, and you
have a decent draw. E.g. you have a bare flush draw and are up against a nit
that can't seem to get away from overpairs. Another reason for floating is if
you think the villain may give off sizing or timing tells on the next street.
E.g. a lot of fishier players like to c-bet small and quickly bomb the turn
with strong hands.
Levelling Up
I know a lot of you crave to
break past the ABC and grow beyond an auto-piloting rake-back pro. Well, based
on the many HEM leak-finders I've done for folks, one of the most common leaks
I see is lack of aggression without the initiative. You've figured out how to
c-bet properly and even double-barrel good scare cards, but when someone else
is doing the c-betting, you're wimping out. This may need to start with cold
calling more hands in later positions so that you actually have more
opportunities in the first place.
If you're puzzling over why
the top winning regs are not only playing more hands than you, but have a
larger gap between VPIP and PFR, this is why. They are creating more
opportunities to take pots down (in position) even without the initiative.
In Other News
As my world tour winds down,
and I prepare to crank poker back up to 100%, I've decided to update my
coaching offer and subsequently my profile. Significant changes include:
emphasis on database analysis/leak-finding, details about my private mailing
list, and potential coaching for profit-sharing opportunities.
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