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First, a small brag: over
the past five days, I played about 80k hands, netting about $4200
including rakeback, bonuses, and giving lessons, my best week of
the year so far. It's comforting to be on a formal schedule, spending
long stretches grinding hermetically, Dexter playing in the
background, Kanye in the front. Yeah. I watch Dexter and listen to My
Dark Twisted Fantasy at the same time. The latter's almost a
soundtrack to the former. Think about it. Pow.
Also, if you haven't already, go subscribe to my youtube channel: youtube.com/citizenwindpokervids. I'll be doing a dissection of interesting hands I played this week on there soon.
To
help alleviate the ennui of perpetual grinding, I've been doing
sessions while skyping with Kevin Kushion, Brendan Keenan, and
Verneer, often spending hours of time talking hands and poker. It's
exponentially increased my perception of the overall state of the
game, as well as some more abstract concepts I've never really
explored. The following rant will be on some of the things I've been
tossing around in the ol' pressure cooker.
Before
this week, if you asked me how the concept of balance plays into the
hand by hand skirmishes between players, I would have explained with
difficulty, inarticulately-- while we all have some ingrained,
intuitive concept of how we balance our play, it doesn't always
translate to recognizable situations over the table. However, in
order to improve as a player, I realized I'd need to have a good
answer to that question, to be able to articulate and apply it.
In
vegas, while talking poker with Pooruser, he mentioned experimenting
with raising TPNK, along with a wide range of bluffs, on dry boards,
checking back the turn, and calling the river. While discussing some
drawbacks of this plan, he said "The big problem is I'd have a
gutted flop calling range." And that sentence turned on a
lightbulb for me.
On
any flop, facing your continuation bet, your villain has two options
with his medium and strong equities-- he can either call or raise.
But if he does one action too often with his strong hands, he neuters
the range of the other. You cannot have both a monster slowplaying
(calling) range, and then a strong flop raising range. It becomes
too obvious. Let's say you're a known slowplayer, and you always flat
dry flops with your sets, overpairs, or TPTK. If you always slowplay,
you shouldn't wonder why, on JJ5r, your bluff-raises always get
called or 3-bet. Conceptually, you think your perceived raising
range on JJ5 will be balanced, but to a perceptive regular, you're
always calling, not raising, with trips or better.
This
is why it's important to take quick notes on even standard hands--
it's imperative to get a general impression of how a villain plays
hands like KQ on K84ss, and how he plays sets on wet boards. You
don't actually have to see villain showdown those hands to come to
fantastic conclusions: if you saw a player snap call AJ on A75ss,
OOP, BB vs. Button, then you imagine that he never c/r's KQ on Q85ss.
And that's a very important read to have on a player, because it
tells you how balanced they are.
With
every line we take, we tell a story, but we also imply many other
stories, some of which we understand fully, and some of which we
don't. Fortune cookie enough for you?
Here's
an example. I flat KQ in the BB against the TAG button's raise, and
then C/R the K65ss flop. What story does this line tell? "I
think your cbet is weak enough on this texture that I should have a
C/Ring bluffing range against you, and hence you should have a bluff
catching range. I think KQ destroys your bluff catching range, so now
it becomes for thin but solid value." If all of those lines are
true, and villain is slightly behind your level of thinking, your
value C/Ring range is going to wreck him when he's got Kx.
But
the C/R also tells two other stories with hugely negative downsides:
"If you have a hand better than TP2K at any point, I'm going to
go broke to you." And "Since I'm C/Ring KQ+ here to balance
my C/Ring range, my flop calling range is always TP3K or worse. I can
almost never stand three barrels." The first one is less of a
worry, because BB vs. BTN KQ is a monster on a K high, two-tone flop,
but having a neutered calling range on the turn is an important
concern. In today's aggro games, where you'll often face multiple
barrels, you don't want to always take aggressive flop lines when it
risks a severely weakened turn and river range. For God's sake,
slowplay more!
So
how do you choose the frequency you distribute strong hands among
your calling and raising ranges? I often ask myself In what way is
this villain giving me the most trouble? If his strength comes
from his aggression, I want to bolster the range I can be passive
with. For example, if a tough, aggressive barreling villain opens, I
want to call see a lot of flops with him with surprisingly strong
hands. I want to force him to make tough barreling decisions (does he
have it? Is he drawing? Is he made?) while mine are relatively
straightforward (Duhr I have toppest pair so I callz...). However, if
villain's mistakes are passive, and he calls too much, then i want to
take as many opportunities as possible to attack with thin value
plays. This is often the exact decision tree I go through when facing
a CO steal when I have AA in the blinds: if the villain isn't going
to be spewing against 3-bets, I'll often see a flop and develop a
more balanced range for check/calling, check/raising, and donking
OOP.
Students
often ask, How do you fight very barrel happy opponents? Well,
that'd imply "His c-betting range on the flop and turn aren't
very strong," so I'd always call with my strong hands and
bluff-raise the flop. I'd rarely flat with medium hands if I hated
facing a turn barrel. I'd keep bluff-raising the flop until he caught
on, and then I'd begin raising the flop for (occasionally thin) value
until he spewed, after which I'd revert to calling the flop with
strong hands and bluff-raising him until caught.
Of
course, this strategy also tells a negative story: "If you
tighten up and I don't notice, and I continue thinly raising /calling
for value or if I continue bluffs in spots where I misread your hand,
I'm going to spew." Which then tells a postive story: "If
you tighten up and c-bet less, I can win more pots when you c/f to
me." And from there the positive and negative implications to
each subsequent adjustment, with ups and downs to every decision,
always continuing on and on.
Every
line leads to imbalances. Even very standard plays leads to gushing
weaknesses. How gaping? Think of this very common leak: if you c-bet
a lot, say, 75% of the time, you've probably got a fantastic balance
of bluffs and value in your barreling game. If you have good turn
barreling frequencies, you're going to be pretty tough to play
against without the betting lead. But when you give up the betting
lead, especially out of position, you're a total lamb. Ask yourself,
my dear 75% c-bettor: when you check OOP with a betting lead, are you
intending to C/F 90% of the time or more? If so, then there's a
gaping imbalance in your play. And you might not even feel the knife
sinking in, as the money slowly leaks away.
I
don't c-bet that often, opting to have defended C/Cing and C/R
ranges, a double barreling ranges with the betting lead (if I don't
cbet often, then shouldn't you give my double barreling range a lot
of credit?). There are quite a few downsides to this style, which
annoy me, namely, I lose value when I could have 3-barreled, I
sometimes let free cards come off and then lose a pot I ordinarily
would have won, and I get into tough spots when someone 3-barrels me
in position and I don't have an absolute monster. So I adjust by
making sure that against villains who show unlimited aggression
against weakness, I can check the nuts to them x3 on any flop
texture.
When
deciding on the best line for any hand, I intuitively ask myself
"What story does my opponent's style tell me about his strength?
What does his style tell me about where he is weak?" If my
opponent is a thinking player, I ask "What implications does
villain expect from my game? And how can I play him in a way to throw
him off that scent?"
One
particular bad reg at $100 is pretty curious. He plays 18/15, has a
fold to 3-bet of 26%, and he floats a lot of flops and is capable of
turning his hand into bluffs on turns and rivers. His style tells me
"I'm going to make your life really difficult if you try to
3-bet and barrel me lightly. OOP, you need to have a strong hand to
beat me, and I'm going to win a lot of strong and medium-sized pots
from you." But the flipside is "When you have a strong
value hand and hit, I'm going to pay you off in dramatic fashion,
especially when I misread your hand." So when constructing my
overall plan against this villain, I keep these two conclusions
stiffly in mind. I stop running big bluffs on this reg completely,
willing to lose an above average handful small pots to him, but I
know 3000 hands he'll spew a stack or get it in 70/30 against me. The
key to making this plan successful will be making sure that I'm not
losing too many small pots between his spews.
How
do you beat regs, SSNL players often ask. This is how. Figure out the
overall strategy of your opponent, get an idea of his profile, and
then play that profile. Use reads from individual hands to put
together a kind of mental dossier. INTERNETPOKERS calls this a
player's bluffing aesthetic. And it's more important than
board texture. People too often ask "What boards should you
barrel?" And that's a bad question, because it doesn't ask any
questions about the villain. What villains should you barrel? That's
a better question. Barrel villains who tell stories of weak calling
ranges.
Another
example: Villain has a high 3-bet out of the blinds and consistently
C/R's thinly for value OOP. The flop comes Q75ss and villain check
calls the flop. This is is a great time to put in two or three
barrels. But let's say that villain is 14/6 with a 2% 3-bet and folds
to cbets 65% of the time. You should bet once and then only put in
money on future streets with extremely strong hands. The board, in
this example, was mostly irrelevant, and the villain was the main
concern. See how much stronger our plan became once we focused on the
villain!
Yet
another example: Villain has a really high turn stab rate (70%+)when
you check back the flop. This implies that should should have a
wider bluff-catching range when you check back, you should have a
wider than usual turn raising range (gutshots, overcards, TPTK, all
2p+, premium draws), that you should usually bet your air on the flop
and end the hand. These are all standard strategies to fight wide
aggressive ranges: call a bit more, bluff-raise a bit more, try not
to show up with weak hands when you expect barrels.
Since
villain is likely to donk the turn all of his decent hands, he's very
unlikely to have strong hands in his turn check/calling range. You
should usually bet a reasonable size on the turn (hoping for a call)
so you can overbet the river. You'll be amazed at how unreasonably
you can wreck an opponent went he's obviously weak. Attack! Attack!
Go!
Thinking
about the full implications of a style helps weigh out frequencies
for value and bluffing lines. For example, let's say an opponent
c-bets a lot, and you c/r bluff him. When he calls, how often should
you bluff the turn with total air? Almost never. When you C/R the
turn, you're saying "I think villain's C-betting range is so wide
he'll fold a lot of air when I C/R him. So when he DOES continue,
he's usually pretty strong, and because your C/R bluff was +EV in the
vacuum of the flop, you don't have to spew by bluffing the turn. You
can usually just continue firing your made hands and premium draws.
After
bluff-raising a flop, you should have a C/Fing range on the turn.
Having a C/Fing is range is the unappreciated range, the one you
neglect and want to kick under the dinner table. But it's so vital! A
C/Fing range tells the following story: I can have air here. I'm
bluffing often enough that you should occasionally make moves or show
up with less than a premium holding. You WANT that. You WANT
people to float you on the flop, or to raise you too much, or fold
too much, or do ANYTHING so often that you can easily match the the
positive implications of your style against the negative implications
of theirs. Similarly, when you 4bet a bunch preflop and sometimes
fold to a shove, you're saying Either you need to stop 3betting me
less, or you need to start 3bet/5betting me, but then you expose
yourself to my 4bet/call off range. If villain doesn't do one or
the other, you're going to slowly own them.
When
people talking about TAG or LAG play, they overemphasize the
strengths and weaknesses, depending on which side of the argument
they are on. But there's no definitively winning style, everything
depends on the piloting player's competency and ability to adapt and
change plans and balances depending on the villain. Malleability and
fluidity are such necessary traits in a winning player that you can't
judge boil it down to Tight or Loose.
Though
I may take a break tonight from grinding (wait, probably not), I'm
going to try and tinker my approach to Rush by always thinking about
my opponents lines of strength and weakness, and how my overall
gameplan should attack that strategy. Since it's hard to pay a lot of
individual attention to each hand when 6-tabling, I'm going to be
more concerned about an overall game theoretically sound strategy to
attacking my opponents, rather than one more based on flow or hand to
hand combat (get it?). I think it'll keep me viewing poker through
the lens of macro, rather than micro, which is definitely the way to
go when you've got 1850 hands flying at you every hour.
Good
luck at the tables!
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