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Prior
to August 2011, I always thought I was too much of a pragmatic realist
to play fantasy sports. I enjoyed watching most sports on TV, reading
about them in the newspaper/online or conjecturing with friends but that
was the extent of my involvement. Like most fans, I followed certain
teams and players due to geographic or experiential connections. Any
additional time investment into analyzing stats or drafting/managing
teams seemed a bit obsessive.
Last
August, I received an invitation from a CardRunners member to join
their Fantasy Premier League mini-league. Soccer, or football as they
call it, was my sport growing up. For the last decade or so I've
followed the English Premier League, generally considered the best
all-around league in the world. Although the games come on early in the
morning Pacific time, I watched many Fox Soccer channel games over the
years pulling for teams like Manchester United and Tottenham or any of
the American players (e.g. Brian McBride, Clint Dempsey, Brad Friedel,
and Tim Howard). With all that in mind and despite no money being
involved, I accepted the invitation and jumped into what became an
engrossing and rewarding season filled with tremendous education about
how fantasy football works.
Sunday,
the 2011/2012 English Premier League season (38 game weeks over nine
months) came to a dramatic conclusion with Manchester City scoring two
goals in stoppage time to claim the league title over Manchester United.
Here are 12 things I learned from my first season of playing.
1. Starting Point -
The Fantasy Premier league starts all players with the same drafting
budget. I decided to draft a team that was made up of high relative
value players based off the prior season's stats performance instead of
drafting any expensive superstars that would require me to field a team
with lots of unproven budget players. I learned
that unlike other sports, soccer player's stats have great variance and
vary greatly from season to season. Many of the players I selected
started off the current season nowhere near the prior season's form.
2. Wild Cards
- Players are given two wildcard weeks where they can change out any
number of players without penalty. Due to my very poor start to the
season where I sat at about 1.3 millionth place, I used my first
wildcard after week 3 of a 38 gameweek season. I learned that
although my results improved greatly after week 3, in the future it
would be much wiser to keep my flexible wildcard to be used much later
in the season for double gameweek opportunities or a rash of injuries.
3. Weekly Transfers -
The FPL allows one player to be replaced on your team each week free of
charge. Any additional transfers each week, outside of your two
wildcard weeks, costs you -4 fantasy points from your total. I learned that
researching and managing your single player each week over multiple
weeks is essential to reshape your team in reaction to injuries, form
and fixtures. The occasional additional points hit can work if they are
well researched upgrades, but it's not recommended to take too many
deductions.
4. Collective Effort
- Much like the poker world where players visiting poker communities
and forums of like minded motivated players, there are several football
fantasy support sites that I discovered during the season. Most of the
serious players congregate, discuss and share their opinions about
optimal play. I learned to
regularly visit the handful of resource/stats sites and communities to
read their collective wisdom on players, teams and moves.
5. "O Captain, My Captain!" -
The biggest determining factor on your score each week is who you
select as your team's captain, as they are the only player to have their
individual points total doubled. My team suffered from my reticence to
pick the runaway points leader, Robin Van Persie, due to his high
expense and a personal dislike for him. I learned that to
be a successful fantasy sports player, you need to disassociate from
pre-conceived notions, rather basing your decisions purely on their
stats. The captain's point doubling is one of the flaws I see with the
game, as it gives too much emphasis on one decision while reducing the
importance of your decisions on the other ten players. It creates large
swings in performance (i.e. variance) from week to week.
6. Managing Value
- Although all players begin with the same team drafting value, there
are provisions to increase the value of your team by buying and selling
players who are moving up or down in value as the season progresses. I learned
several months into the season of the importance of selecting players
that have lots of purchasing momentum behind them so that your team
value will increase allowing you to afford a higher overall value than
others as the season progresses. If managed properly, by mid-season you
can afford a team of much stronger players than others who don't focus
on this player/team value creation aspect.
7. Form and Fixture
- The season is one of the longest in sports running from mid-August to
mid-May. Players rarely maintain their performance levels consistently
through the course of the nine month season. Following individual
players momentum is key. I learned
that it is smart to select players who have good matchups or who are
running hot over players who may be superior players long term.
8. Injuries and Rotation
- Two of the most frustrating and challenging aspects of playing FPL is
the frequency of injuries and coach decisions to rotate players due to
other competition considerations. These uncertainties introduce a fairly
large variance aspect to the game beyond all your other careful
research and team management. I learned
it's important to follow the latest Twitter and fantasy site news
regarding injury and coach starting preferences. Over a season, it will
even out with your competitors, but at times it feels that you are
running well over or under the average luck out there.
9. There's no place like home - Unlike some sports where player's statistics don't vary greatly from venue to venue, I learned
that many EPL players perform better when playing at home than on the
road. It is often a good choice to substitute the better overall player
when they are playing on the road, if you have a lesser player that is
playing at home.
10. Personal Bias Has No Place -
Of the fifteen players I drafted to start the season, I only held one
player the entire year - Gareth Bale. Despite having a slow start, he
went on to become one of the top points scoring players this season. All
other players came and went from my team, sometimes multiple times as
fantasy situations dictated. I learned
you can't afford to be too loyal or hold personal biases against
players. If you are to succeed, you need to pick the right players that
are most likely to score at the right times whether they are pillars of
the community or not.
11. Respectability
- During the season I read that the goal for respectability would be
2,000 points. That is 52.6 points per week from your 11 players; coming
to 4.78 per player. I finished with 2,034 points, breaking the 2,000
point barrier on the last week of the season. The top player in the
world finished with 2,414 points. I learned that
your captains decision is so important to your weekly results that you
will always suffer if you don't select the top scoring player no matter
how expensive he is.
12. It's not where you start, it's where you finish
- Considering my slow start and lack of experience the first few
months, I consider my finish quite positive. I finished in 109,691st out
of over 2.78 million worldwide players this season. Of the roughly
80,000 U.S. based players, I finished in 3,120th place. Although as many
as half of fantasy players stop actively managing their teams as the
season progresses, those players can continue to score decently if they
picked solid players. I learned that
it's a long season and you can't avoid poor weeks where your players
don't perform. Making regular researched small tweaks to your team gives
you an edge over less actively managed teams.
I
started the CardRunners mini-league in 9th place and through my
continued efforts I slowly climbed throughout the season until I took
the lead in the last few weeks - finishing in first! My last big move to
cement my position came in the crucial double gameweek 36, where I had
my highest scoring week of the season - 129 points. In the season long
league, it's very much of a marathon perspective where you need to keep
making good consistent stats/performance based decisions, rather than a
few quick big gambling sprints.
You
can now consider me a fantasy football convert. I'll definitely be back
for next season, hoping to build off the experience from my first
season. Without the learning curve that was the first half of this
season, I should fare much better in the worldwide comparative rankings.
I was surprised at how much I enjoyed the time evaluating stats and
making personnel moves, although it would take less time in my second
season.
I
think fantasy sports can be a great outlet only if you have a passion
for the game, as I wouldn't want to invest that much time for a sport in
which I didn't have the same interest. Overall, It deepened my
understanding of the game, its players and teams. My experience as a
Premier League fan evolved, including rooting for certain positive or
negative player outcomes and following teams I never would have before. A
final thanks to crashoutcassius for inviting me to play, although I'm
sure he rues that decision as I crushed him mercilessly (yes, I'm being
results oriented but I want him to bring his A game next year).
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