Sometimes I'm not sure (WSOP hand)

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Nicolak's Blog

June 04 2011

Sometimes I'm not sure (WSOP hand)

The setup is the $10k pot limit hold'em event. 250 entrants and it's accurate to say it's a tough field w/ very few weak spots. I get on a very tough table w/ 4-5 aggro Euro kids who know how to play + couple other young kids, Bttech, Jared Jaffee (who busted and was replaced by Sam Stein), and Rick Solomon (the dude that offered Pamela Anderson to pay her huge loss in a Vegas casino for a night of, ummm, fun...eventually they marry and divorce).

We start w/ 30k and I'm down to about 25k playing 250/500. Utg opr to 1200, I flat w/ 45s on the button, bb calls, flop J64r w/ 1 to my suit, chk chk I bet 1700 (to try to win it there, case can be made for checking but I like betting since bp is so vunerable and I should only have to worry about bb because utg checked which likely means he has nothing), bb folds, utg c/r to 4400 (he has me covered).

Now let's assess his range...1st of all, he seems like a young competent thinking player (although even some competent mtt pros don't seem to understand how to play postflop well) so I would expect him to lead w/ all jacks, overpairs, 66, 44 (to get value from jacks), 87, and some random air hands inc. AK. Given that he doesn't cbet flop means he's giving up or is slowplaying JJ, that's pretty much it. Well once he c/r's me I know he has JJ or air, and given that there's a lot more air in his range, mostly due to combinatorics, and his possible line of thinking being "well this good looking asian dude can be just trying to steal it on the button since we both checked to him and w/ the bb out of the way let me put him to the test and resteal vs his possible steal w/ my air + backdoor equity", I call w/ my bp (possibly the best hand) + backdoor draws + position.

Turn 9 bringing 2 hearts (not my suit), chk, chk (I just want to get to sd because my hand is likely good now but I can't stand another c/r so I elect to check), riv offsuit Q, he bombs 11k and I go into the tank. Once he checks the turn we can almost eliminate JJ unless he was going for a weird and rare c/r, c/shove line. Now I go through in my mind everything I just wrote and can't figure out what the heck he has or is repping. Again if it was a bad player, he's liable to show up w/ AQ, sets, AA, etc since they have no clue, but this kid wasn't bad. Also he wouldn't bomb the river w/ top pair type hands because he would know my most likely hand are busted draws or a jack so he'd value bet around 6-8k at the river.

The only hand I think he can have is A4s, T8, KT or air...but A4s is probably not in his range because he probably cbets that on the flop. Well if he backdoored a straight and it's either that or air I should call. My bp is pretty much equivalent to AJ (I won't totally discount overpairs since it's possible some mtt pros take this line).

Here are a few more reasons for calling (pros for calling)...

-He seems like a young mtt pro....probably not experienced in postflop play and just making plays for the sake of it to win a pot w/o having an idea of what he's really repping...this happens more often than you think, even in $10k's

-The field is tough and I don't expect guys to give chips away like they do in the smaller buyins so there isn't much merit to the "wait for a better spot" reasoning, so I need to seize the +ev spots, even if they're marginal

-I have a little over 10bbs if I lose and I can still come back

Here are my question marks on calling (cons for calling)...

-When he bombs the river like that, he's more likely to have the straight, as unlikely as it may seem from the flop on...so I'm not 100% sure if it's +ev to call...I think it is, but not as much as I thought it was at the time

-It's a big bet and chips saved are more valuable than chips won in mtts so I'm not sure if I'm supposed to call in a very marginal spot even though I felt it was slightly +ev

I asked a couple of very good players and they both thought it was a fold but I think they were putting more weight into the actual river bet size (and 'waiting for a better spot") than the entire hand (my thoughts on it anyway)

I elected to make a hero call and lost to KT. I don't feel bad about how I played the hand because my read was spot on and I went w/ it. Again I don't know if that's enough reason to risk most of my stack though.

In a cash game I almost always call since I feel it's +ev, but again it's different in tournaments where it's sometimes correct to pass on marginal spots, including very small +ev spots.

Sometimes I'm not sure .

As for the tournament I built my stack up from 6k to 32k (illustrating why calling isn't bad since I can come back) and got it in at the 400/800 level w/ TT from the bb vs a Euro kid in the co in an obvious squeeze spot (button had called as well and we were playing 7 handed w/ 5 more hands left for the night) and busted to QQ.

Thoughts and comments are appreciated (and yes you can tell me my call is bad as long as you give reasons why).

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1723 Views | Comments(12)

June 04,2011

nvm that thought flop was J9x

jcl

June 04,2011

I don't play anywhere near this high so maybe im not on the right level to be analyzing this but I think its a fold because after you bet/call the flop and check back the turn its quite clear you are going for showdown.

Most people tend to assume that people going for showdown are going to get to showdown no matter what they bet (as long as its not like 5x pot or something ridiculous). The fact that he bets pretty big (i calculate roughly 11 into 13?)illustrates that he has value here most of the time instead of a bluff (i think) I also think this is the case because I don't think he is putting you on a 4 when you bet call the flop. I think he mostly puts you on pairs that are jacks or pp between 6s and jacks. When the board runs out 9/Q I dont think he assumes you are going to fold a jack, also since a lot of your jacks have now improved to 2 pair on these turn/rivers (thought J9 can probably be discounted by you checking back the turn)....

All in all I think hes just trying to make a big value bet most of the time

North_Squad_92

June 04,2011

On a side note, i know you think your 4 is good for showdown, but if we are going to hero call the river, then i think bet folding the turn is better since we are going fold out hands like K/10 and other garbage that has 8-12 outs vs us and I dont think he ever check shoves those on the turn.

If he happens to have JJ then hes probably reraising the turn and then we can bet something like 7 into 13 and fold to his reraise instead of having to call down 11k on the river guessing whether or not hes bluffing

North_Squad_92

June 04,2011

Why no more Poker Road radio shows? Has not been any in over a month.

Trip8ights

June 04,2011

If hes willing to make a triky play by c-raising JJ, I dont see why he woulnt c-raise also 66 or 44. It has about the same value vs the hand that can outdraw him. His flop c-raise is deafeanetly suspicious. If he perceived you as a good player he may add AJ or KJ in his flop c-raising range although most players would opt to cbet those. Once the turn goes c-check, river bet I think we dont see to many bluffs with this line. Personnally I think I would fold because I would not give credit to many players for being that creative.

Also I think a flop min 3 bet is interesting in this spot too even with position.

pieton

June 05,2011

Some good pts here. Maybe I was guilty of applying too much hand reading and knowing villain's range is super polarized composed mostly of air which led to a call. Did I outlevel myself? Perhaps. Due to the nature of mtts it could've been a fold, but then I might be being results oriented.

Betting the turn has merit for the reasons North_Squad mentioned but I still am not sure that's best. The more I think about this hand the more I am not sure. It was probably just best to fold it preflop to avoid this spot.

Pieton there's a difference having 66 and 44 vs JJ here. Most would lead w/ 66 and 44 to get multiple streets of value vs. Jx hands while JJ won't always lead because mp's and bp's aren't likely to call.

As for there not being many bluffs, what value hands do you assign villain at river? That's what I asked other pros and they couldn't think of any.

Nicolak

June 05,2011

What if I had AJ? Is that a call or fold at river?

Nicolak

June 05,2011

We're going to have more PR shows Trip8ights, it's up to CR management to release them here but it will be up at PR very soon.

Nicolak

June 06,2011

Here are the things I would have done differently:

First, I would fold preflop. I know it seems nitty, but I don't think we have anywhere close to the implied odds needed to make 54s a profitable call against the UTG raiser here. If there were antes, it might be a different story but, even then, I would probably muck 65s and below and call 87s.

I like your flop play and flop read. I agree that he mostly has air here. My plan for the hand at this point would be to call with the intention of giving up on the turn if he fires again, or betting about 2/3 pot if he checks. If my hand improves in a meaningful way, I will call his turn bet, or perhaps check behind. I think I will call his bet if I pick up an OESD, a flush draw, trip, or two pair. I will likewise check behind if he checks and I pick up a flush draw, an OESD, or trips, but I will bet two pair.

As played, you put yourself in a tough spot on the river. I think it's a definite fold if a broadway card hits. Many of his air hands have now improved when a broadway card hits, so if he leads the river, it's quite plausible he actually has a real hand and is value betting. AQ, KQ, KT, and QT all just got there. IME few people have the intestinal fortitude to make big river bluffs in spots like this, so I will tend to give credit. Now, if a brick hits on the river, well, you just have to soulread the guy and make a decision. I think the turn bet prevents this tough decision from manifesting, and if you do make a turn bet and get check-raised again, it's an easy laydown.

Telepathy

June 06,2011

so UTG raiser was a young MTT pro and the table overall was very tough...you don't mention any marks in the blinds, and you are calling preflop w/ 50BBs effective and 54s? I have a hard time believing you are making money here in the long run.

nutedawg

June 06,2011

Dunno what your history is there or image. Capable, young competent player UTG? 3b pre there unless this fish in blinds or he doesn't give you respect. Given he c/rs you on that uncoordinated flop, I'd guess you weren't getting respect which I'd rather just fold the hand.

wooz

June 07,2011

I agree calling pref was iffy at best....probably a little bit of ego "knowing that I'm ip and can play postflop better than the kid" led to the call which is detrimental to success in poker.

3betting or folding is definitely the preferred play.

I like a lot of what Telepathy said and agree w/ your analysis.

I'll be the 1st to admit I didn't play the hand well, especially calling preflop. Thanks for all the input guys.

Nicolak

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