It's been awhile since I've blogged and while I can go down the expected path of talking about the upcoming WSOP I'm actually going to discuss a cool hand I was in the other day in a live tournament. I tweeted this yesterday and it generated quite a discussion. I was in the Venetian Deep Stack $400 event (getting some live tournament practice in before WSOP). Blinds were 400/800/75, utg + 1 (a competent player w/ an above avg. stack opens to 2k, 2 older guys in mp call, I'm in the co w/ JTo and a stack of 4600 (5.5bbs) and I tank. I always talk about spots where some things may seem obvious, if you think hard enough there may be a better alternative, for all forms of poker, actually for all decision making in life. This felt like one of those spots.

Whereas the obvious looks like a fold because my hand is weak, especially multiway, and I have zero fold equity if I shove, I felt like this is a spot where I can choose an alternative line and make it a +ev spot. If I min 3bet to 3200, the 3 remaining players are likely to fold and there's a good chance the utg + 1 opener repops it to isolate me creating a pot of 10,500 after I call all in. This gives me a price of about 2.3 to 1. Shane Schleger via twitter (who told me this is a fold before hearing my analysis) broken down a reasonable iso range of 22+, A9s+, ATo+, and QJ+ and JTo was 37% vs. that range. If this is correct then I only need about 2 to 1 to make it a profitable play, so we are able to put ourself in a +ev spot. Sure it's not much more and if we think about the value of surviving then it's close (maybe even a fold) but if we think strictly in terms of chip ev then it's a great play.

Let me go over why min 3betting is superior to shoving when we're trying to get iso'ed here. By min 3betting to 3200 vs. shoving for 4600, we increase the probability we get iso'ed because the 4better has to risk less of his stack to iso. Also if everybody calls and the flop comes down horribly for us (234 monotone, etc.) we can fold and conserve our last 1400 (people have come back from 2bbs to win tournaments). We also accomplish what we're trying to do, which is get reraised and isolated.

I was disagreed by many, including some notable tournament players. Their arguments ranged from "wait for a better spot", "what if everybody just calls", and "too many things have to go right". After hearing their arguments I had a hard time agreeing w/ them because the math proves it's a +ev spot IF you get it hu (it becomes more complicated when called, but again you have some equity and you have 1400 left. My friend stoved it vs. reasonable calling ranges and said we're 25% vs. 3, but I think it's less since we have cards within callers' calling ranges. This shows we're not even that bad of a shape even if we go multiway). Now I'm not the most polished tournament player (although I can hold my own) and maybe I eschew the survival aspect over ev sometimes (as a cash game player I'm wired to push every ounce of positive ev), but I still felt like w/ my 5.5 bb stack this was a good spot as any to more than double up.

Also I noted the 2 callers were straightforward older guys, meaning they're never trapping here w/ premium hands and the raiser was competent. This is relevant because the raiser probably knows this as well and is more likely to reraise to get it hu. Also if the player is good he should always reraise because while I'm getting 2.3 to 1 hu, he is getting 2.3 to 1 hu as well and there is no hand in his range where he is -ev getting this good of a price vs. my range, at minimal risk to his stack too. Also while his initial opening range is offering 1875 to 2k (so he's about 1 to 1), he should widen his iso range because he'll be getting 2.3 to 1 (sure he may get a caller, but again that's unlikely, especially when we see that his range consists of all the premium hands vs. the callers') which in turn probably makes me better than 37% vs. his iso range.

Another argument against was that one of the 3 behind can wake up w/ a hand, but again that's ok because now I'm getting a better price at the expense of lowering my winning % and if he has a good hand he will definitely 4bet and iso me which is what I want. Also the argument that we can wait for a better spot doesn't seem to hold much water to me (maybe some mathematical mtt guy can determine if this is actually true, calling Colin Moshman?)...we have 5.5bbs, we don't have that many hands left and we should get called always when we shove.

I knew the tournament guys were wrong when a couple of them said it's a fold, wait for better spot when I said what if there are 6 callers to you. This would lead to us getting 4-1 or better in a spot where we have at least 33% equity (assuming it gets hu again). Now I know if you're foregoing this you should give up poker, tournament poker or not. Also threw out what if you're in the bb (so no more left to act)...then we should definitely try to get it hu and create a highly favorable spot for us.

It's funny that the only guys that either agreed w/ me or thought my thought process was cool were high stakes online cash game players including CPar1 and BalugaWhale. CR's Mark Tyson also thought like me as well. Either we're tournament fish or we're on a level of thinking above most tournament players. My friend Joe Tehan also agreed w/ me (and I consider him a genius at poker) and even pointed out why min 3betting is superior to shoving (although I had to show him why reraising was best in the 1st place).

As for what actually happened I tank folded because I knew the ev was close and while I was pretty sure it was +ev, I wasn't sure if it was enough to risk my tournament life (mid stages). Turns out sb 3bet, bb shortie called all in, initial raiser folded, 1 mp folded, and 2nd mp decided to gamble all in(I guess you can argue that's why I shouldn't do because people might spazz, but then it's still not that bad). The hands were 88, 77, and KQo and I would've more than quadrupled up because I would've won (but results don't matter). I do welcome all comments and questions about this hand (even if you disagree, as long as you can explain why).

Anyway my plan this summer is to play a full schedule of WSOP events and pass on most of the live cash games. While this is -ev for me (my earning power in cash games>tournaments) I enjoy the atmosphere and everything else that comes w/ playing WSOP events. Also I want to win a bracelet (but then who doesn't)!

Also for those looking to improve their live games (especially in time for the WSOP), check out my personal coaching site www.stackemcoaching.com . Right now we're offering a promotional discounted price of $19.95/month for a monthly subscription. Also I've been doing more 1 on 1 coaching, including live (I mean live as in person) sweats. I've been playing some $1/$2 and $2/$5 games w/ students around Vegas and I must say live games are still great (at those stakes anyway). If anybody is interested in live sessions or even the typical online sweat sessions my coaching profile is up at my site (although I probably won't have time to take students until after the WSOP, but this is just a hu for those that may be interested).