April 20, 2011

Surf The Tsunami

Blog by : JACK DOG WELCH
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Don't try to stop the waves of events and emotions; surf them. Allow upheaval and unhappiness, and you reduce their power.-Martha Beck
I play Internet poker. I am married and my bills are paid. I am a veteran, a senior citizen, a tax-payer, an informed voter, a law school drop-out with an honors degree in political philosophy. For all that and more, the current political environment constantly threatens to make me sick to my stomach and despair for my grandchildrens' future.
I do not cheat, lie nor steal. I am not an addict. My playing poker on the Internet will not lead to increased crime. Unless it's another bad beat.
I do not much enjoy live poker. I have personal hygiene standards which are not always reached by my opponents. I am most comfortable with my dogs at my feet and smooth jazz playing in the background. I do not like to buy $4.00 gas to drive an hour on crowded highways and pay the valet to park my car and find the games I want to play are not running. I like to play four games simultaneously.
The UIGEA is bogus on several levels. OMGJonKyl. (By the way, that's not bank fraud, that's civil disobedience. Free the E-Poker Eleven!!!)
The anti-gambling lobby is hypocritical and almost completely clueless. This beauty from the Christian Science Monitor continues to puzzle me... "[Regulation would] open the door to redistributing wealth from mainly poor Americans to mainly foreign gambling interests."
There are dog tracks, bingo, jai alai, river boats, casinos, office pools, yada yada. In Florida a thousand "sweepstakes cafes" have opened in the last four years. Locally, some wife in her 40's was just indicted for bilking her family out of their life savings. She was playing the slots - legal - at the Hard Rock Casino - legal - and won $13,000,000. Also legal. Turns out she was comped rooms and trips and meals and...- also legal - as she was losing $14 million - legal. But the money wasn't hers. Now that's a problem.
Parenthetically, I must note the governor attempted to sabotage a pill mill registry because it was 'an invasion of our privacy.' Meanwhile, 7 people die every day in just this one state from prescription drug abuse.
The government - in virtually every state - has its own keno game, aka, the lottery. Your odds of winning Power Ball are mathematically similar whether you have a ticket or not. I heard a story that your odds of winning the national lottery are about the same as getting attacked by a brown bear and a polar bear on the same day. Another example is getting struck by lightning three times. If the first homo sapiens to stand on two feet had purchased a lottery ticket twice a week since the beginning of human time, it is more than probable he still might not have won.
But, put your womens in a safe place, because Internet Poker is a dire problem from which adult Americans must be protected.
Everywhere I turn it seems there are too few intelligent adults acting in good faith. Sigh. Deep breath.
But what I have to believe - and feel compelled to teach - has been offered by the likes of Daniel 'Kid Poker' Negreanu with "Adapt, survive and thrive" & Friedrich 'ImNotCrazee' Nietzsche who offered"What does not destroy me, makes me stronger." Make lemonade.
I can't speak for sponsored pros. Seems like the number of red pros might decline. What happens to online tournaments when the guarantees shrink? Or to a man I respect, who has a wife and three kids and a mortgage? Doubtlessly, the number of responsible adults with adult responsibilities is legion and my heart goes out to them. But for the well-heeled, the young and unencumbered, I wonder. There is a part of me which suspects, somewhere not too far down the road, something good this way comes.
This crisis doubtlessly offers a tremendous opportunity for positive change. Remember, you are gamblers, risk takers. Go back to college. Move to Vancouver. Write a book. Read a book. Get in shape. Move to Amsterdam. Play live. Join Match.com.
Myself, I got a puppy.
Key point. It's not the end of the world, it just feels that way.
In times of crisis, we must learn to surf the tsunami.

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March 19, 2011

Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes

Blog by : JACK DOG WELCH
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Change The Route. -

Every morning, I walk the dog. We sniff every bush, every mailbox, every pole and we pee on almost all of them. Actually, the dog does. We greet every creature we come upon. And as is natural, he also takes a dump, usually two. He's huge and he's regular. Being a responsible dog owner, I pick up after him. It's the right thing to do.
One morning, this big, ugly, fat, loud, possibly crazy woman comes out of the house, yelling at us. She was possibly drunk; I know I'd start downing the sauce upon waking, if I was her.
Despite the fact I am holding two plastic bags of dog ****, she accused me of never picking up after my dog. She claimed to speak for all her neighbors, we weren't welcome on her street.
Well, I checked with her neighbors. Turns out they like my dog better than they like her. No surprise there.
Because I know people who know people, I asked a judge about a restraining order. I'll show that *****, I'm thinking.
"Jack, Jack, Jack," he sighs, like he has more important legal matters to attend to, like a capital murder case or fixing his golf buddies' parking tickets.
"Change your route."

When we are no longer able to change a situation, we are challenged to change ourselves. ~Victor Frankl

Think Carefully Before You Change Something That's Working.

We have four aquariums. Well, my wife does. A couple of these nautical environments are devoted to gold fish. We didn't give much thought to the fact they poop in the water. Then there's the algae. Suffice to say, the water gets, ummm, cloudy.
Finally, the woman can't take it any more. We spend - again - far too much money on new equipment and trappings. She sequesters the fish to a holding tank, spends the afternoon carefully reconstructing their home and it looks great. Sparkling even.
The next morning. All the fish are dead. All but one, that is. The biggest fish - Bob - isn't feeling so good, but at least he's not floating on the surface. Like Carol and Alice and Adolf. Yes, they have names. And, in case you're wondering, Adolf had a little black spot on his upper lip.
You can do everything correctly and end up worse off than you were before.

All change is not growth, as all movement is not forward. ~Ellen Glasgow

Watch For Changes.

The more things remain the same, the more they are likely to change sometime soon. And you want to be ready, you want to be able to deal with the results of those changes. Ideally, you want to be able to anticipate change in order to guide the results in a positive direction.
The current revolution in Egypt comes to mind. Mubarak is an autocrat in power for 30 years. He's 80-some years old, there are food shortages, a wave of independence is sweeping the Middle East. Do the math.
Just because you don't want something to change doesn't mean it won't. Change happens.

Because things are the way they are, things will not stay the way they are. ~Bertold Brecht

Change for The Future.

The Green Bay Packers are the new Super Bowl champions. And Aaron Rodgers was the game's MVP. This victory - and Rodger's accomplishments - would never have been possible if the team's management had not decided to jettison Brett Favre.
Quite often, the changes you make today to prepare for the future are far easier than the result if you defer change until it is inevitable and mandatory. Then change is often too late. If you have to time your change, like timing the stock market, you will be better off changing too early rather than too late.
Too late and, in truth, the changes will be made for you.

Continuity gives us roots; change gives us branches, letting us stretch and grow and reach new heights. ~Pauline R. Kezer

Keep Changing.

If you are not improving, you are getting worse. When you stop trying, you are dieing. If your first change doesn't work, change it.
The aquariums are now crystal clear. No more goldfish. Water is now heated and Lennie & Squiggy and Crimson & Clover are doing just fine. The wife is happy.

Things alter for the worse spontaneously, if they be not altered for the better designedly. ~Francis Bacon

Embrace Change.

Change happens: don't deny it. If you are fortunate, every day you are older. That's a change. Then one day you are not. Another change.
One definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over after you know it won't work. One definition of stupidity might be doing the same thing over and over thinking it will always work.
If it ain't broke, you don't have to fix it...now. But keep your tools handy.

If you don't like something change it; if you can't change it, change the way you think about it. ~Mary Engelbreit

Change Is Not Always Progess.

Sometimes the results might not be what you expected or hoped for. Beware the ripple effects. What changes does change make?

It is not necessary to change. Survival is not mandatory. ~W. Edwards Deming

Check out my website - PokerHeadRush.com. Thinking Poker. Mindful Life.

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February 09, 2011

Amputate Or Three-Bet?

Blog by : JACK DOG WELCH
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Dinner is served early at Re-Hab.
But for some, apparently not early enough. "Wake up and eat!" I look behind me to see a woman, maybe 200 years old, slouched over in her wheelchair. The snoring goes on.
The good news is, I'm just visiting.
Mom is wide awake, watching the entire room like it's a Broadway play, fully aware she's playing a supporting role. The media is always promoting one healthy old person or another. But for every Betty White, there's 10,000 old ladies, whose bodies have fallen apart or whose minds have run off without them. From what I can surmise, it's better not to lose your mind. They have replacement parts for your body.
That's why I'm having dinner with my mother. The next day she's scheduled for her third knee replacement. This will be her ninth or tenth surgery on that one leg. We have actually lost count. Her new surgeon confides that 98% of patients don't have these problems. Wow. I tell my mother, you are a lucky woman, 49-1 this doesn't happen to you.
I notice Mother isn't eating. "Oh, I never eat dinner," she explains. And I am thinking I drove by 100 good restaurants to have dinner with her... Rehab cuisine compares favorably to airplane meals, except for the frequent flyer miles.
I came a day early to avoid traffic. Also, because I want to play some poker at the Sarasota Kennel Club's One-Eyed Poker Room. This is the kind of room which makes online play so appealing. I told my wife - 60-year-old grandmother, cute and shapely, sure, - she'd be the second best looking hostess working here.
I wanted to play some Omaha Hi-Lo. It's advertised on all the marketing info, but "that's offered only rarely on weekends." Of course. So, I sit down at a single table high stakes sit-and-go. WTF, I figure.. I begin crushing the game. Rocking my inner Hoyt Corkins, I am shoving hand after hand.
So, we get to the cash bubble. I lead from UTG and the button raises big. "Blow me," I am thinking and three-bet shove. After all, I do have A-A. He calls and turns over a pair of 4s.
"You were thinking that was good?," I ask. Calmly.
His buddy on the rail - stinky and ugly - says, "you shove every four hands. What do you expect?" Me, I expect you know your 4s aren't good in this spot. But, hey, that's just me.
Of course, a 4 flops and I have to hear what a bad player I am.
I say, "nice hand," and walk away. Still calm.
Mom can't walk. She wants this next knee replacement, so she can have "two or three more good years." After 45 years of battling a crippling disease, you have to admire her spunk.
Mom is leaving rehab. And she is so happy with her parting gift - a T-shirt. On a light blue background, there's the slogan: You Arrived As A Patient, But You're Leaving As A Friend.
That is nice. Much better than my suggestion: You Came As A Rich Person, But You're Leaving As A Poor One.
At the hospital, preparing her for surgery, I watch and I listen and I am completely confident - another bad beat is the least of my problems....

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December 12, 2010

IPoker 15-Month Blackout +EV???

Blog by : JACK DOG WELCH
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The PPA reminded me a period of 15 months without legalized online poker may be more beneficial than continued industry decline: "We believe that the trade off for getting regulated, permanent U.S. online poker market is worth a temporary blackout of some sort. It's not what we want, either, and it's not what we pushed for in Congress, and we don't even like it. But when viewing this from the perspective of maintaining a sustainable internet poker market, the 15-month period is short-term pain for a long-term gain." U.S. regulation will reduce - hopefully - the continual chipping away at our freedoms by local authorities.

As a poker player, I first looked at the blackout period as an egregious assault on the game.

I wondered about the young family men who completely support a wife and children with their online income.

Or the single moms who might supplement their incomes with online poker.

Or the kids who dropped out of college to pursue a poker career and must now find a job.

Or the old guy on Social Security who prefers the virtual green felt to driving to a distant casino and playing slowly with a bunch of stinky drunken loud rude buttwipes. Wait, that's me.

No, not the buttwipe part... the old guy part.

As a life coach, on second thought, I wonder how online players might use this blackout period to our advantage.

I could finish all those poker strategy books I half read.

I could learn to enjoy live play.

I could get in better shape.

I could write my novel.

I could spend more time with my family.

The list goes on.

If each online poker player carefully analyzed his life as currently played, we all can find alternative uses of our time. Positive uses. Ameliorative changes.

And I would so like to see the next Russ-Hamilton-cheating son-of-a-bitch lose his house, his car, his clothes and the ensuing five years of his freedom.

Legalized internet poker, regulated by the government, might just grow the game into a respected profession.

Like Wall Street. Or prescription drugs.

You could even make 15 months the minimum jail term for cheating. - JDW

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