My last WSOP event happened on last Wednesday and was a giant 1k with two starting days and 4400 entrants. I had a really soft starting table with the exception of Dave "TheMaven" Chicotsky who was in the 3 seat to my 6 seat. We hardly played many pots together and the clashes we did have were minor in scale (obviously I bluffed him in level 1 though).

Early Stacktion

The first interesting hand of note I was not involved in. A woman had sat down to my direct right, about ten minutes late, and asked everyone how their series was going. After no one responded with enthusiasm she mentioned how last event she played, the ladies event, she came second for a six figure score. She didn't last the orbit. In my BB a player opened in +2, she 3-bet from the SB, he 4-bet, and she shoved w QQ. He had AA and that was that. The structure in these 1ks is quite fast to start and in general. You begin with 3000 chips at 25/25 which goes up to 25/50 and 50/100 with hour levels. So if you have 2/3 of starting stack after a bad start you can have 20bb in 2 hours and 5 minutes of play. Thankfully this wouldn't be the case for me this time around, but I had had to manage it the previous 1k I had played.

With blinds at 25/50 the same player who showed down AA to double opened to 3x in the same EP spot, and I was the only caller in the BB w QhJh. The flop came AdKdTd and I checked. He bet 425 into 350 with about 3000 effective. I called and the turn was a 2h. I checked again and he bet 625 at 1200.

Now let's evaluate what is going on. If I call turn the pot will be 2450 and we will have about 1950 effective behind. That should be sufficient room to either check and call, check and fold, or open shove. So calling preserves all my options with respect to the stack to pot ratio. If I raise, I am certainly committed.

Physical tells

The villain was exhibiting very similar behaviour as he did in the AA hand. He was acting fast when the action was on him, confidently, and was also showing signs of shaking, heavier breathing. He was a young guy, mid 20s, and I didn't think he was particularly afraid of the stakes. I did think that he was nervous, whether that was his hand strength, or like some players, he was just nervous in pots in general, was unclear to me.

Betting Pattern

This is far far more important in this spot than any physical tells. Dude overbet the flop on AKT monotone. How many XdYd combinations can he have in his +2 opening range, 10 handed, pre-antes, in a 1k? That was the thought in my mind from the beginning. I seriously doubted villain could open J8dd, Q8dd, 56dd, 78dd. Pretty much the bottom combinations it seemed to me were Q9dd, J9dd, 89dd. There are no guarantees he opens these; he had been playing snug. Of course, I would have a hard time believing he would overbet c-bet QJdd had he flopped the joint.

Once I basically rule out flushes what makes sense for him to bet the flop quite large, then the turn half pot, setting up a 3/4 pot shove? Well AA, KK, TT, AK, AT certainly come to mind. These hands a) are strong in villain's eyes, particularly against a check-call range b) benefit from protection and c) benefit from playing against notched, or slightly worse, made hands, on later streets, as opposed to draws. They also constitute a fair proportion of his opening range given his tightness. Other possibilities include AxQd, QJss/cc, QdQx (strangely played), and {bluffs}. Bluffs is pretty interesting as not many hands in his opening range outside of 5c5s, have zero showdown value on this board, and need to plan to bet/bet/shove in order to win the pot. In any case, by the turn, I had firmly ruled out the existence of bluffs, but I also kept coming back to the idea that he could not have a flush on this board. Finally, and importantly, I was fairly confident that villain would not recognize the capped nature of his range given the presence of exactly the ace, king, and ten of diamonds on board.

So once I have gone through that thought process I pretty much have the nuts on the turn. The question becomes whether to value raise/shove or check-call again to play a river. I believe that villain can hero fold the turn with hands as strong as AT should I shove. He also gives up on his nonexistent bluffs, which matters if my assessment of his range/tendencies is mistaken.

I believe in this spot that I don't have concern for as much protection as the board initially displays. If his range doesn't include many one diamond hands, then I am not worried so much about protection as I am action-killers. In other words a hand like AK only has 4 outs, but has probably 13 action killing cards in 4 offsuit Q/J and 9 diamonds. A hand like KK has the same number of action killers but 10 outs. Meanwhile there is an interesting decision to make on a diamond river, which I think is check-call any bet size. Because he has so few one diamond hands on the flop/turn I would have to conclude a shove on a river diamond was overwhelmingly a bluff. He would check back hands like top set or top two. So as unlikely as a bluff seems on the turn, should villain shove a diamond, I would feel obliged to call.

In any case I check-called the turn and the river was an offsuit 4. The final board is AKTddd,2h,4s. I checked, villain bet 1750 of my 1950 stack into 2450. I tanked re-thinking my assessment that he can't have a flush nearly ever. I just couldn't give him credit for many diamonds from where he opened. I don't expect him to be able to necessarily value bet AT here always and there is no reason for me to believe he decided to run a huge bluff here. Its a strange hand given his flop sizing. Somewhere in the tank I got the clock called on me (again). I called almost immediately after that as I had made up my mind. He showed Q9ss and I basically doubled up.

I think it was a reasonably good line to go bet/bet/bet here on this board and this run out for him. His sizing is kind of suspicious on all streets , something I have to think a bit more about. In any case I had managed to take a call-call-call-call line for the double up and get ahead of the blinds. I think that might have been the only call-call-call-call line I took my entire six weeks in Las Vegas. When we went to 50/100 I had 6000 and was quite comfortable. I kind of like the villain's play to be honest because, while I check-call AK on the flop and the turn and play it that way preflop, I probably check-fold it on the river, figuring I chop with the bottom of his value range, which doubles as his entire range. I can't say for sure that I would not have considered bluffs more strongly with a hand like AK, since with AK I block his value range, with QJhh I do not, and with AK I lose to sets, hence the need to consider bluffs more strongly, while with QJhh I only lose to flushes, which makes me consider his value range more strongly.

I can't say for sure but had I the same thought process with AK his bluff would have worked; I am just not assured to have the same thought process when I flop AKTddd with AK (since I am a fish).

Giving some back

I got dealt ThTx in the sb and saw a young French dude open to 300 at 50/100 in MP and David flat behind. I flatted not able to stack off at 60bb depth pre-antes. The flop came 964hhd, I checked, the French dude bet 425, David folded, and the French punk almost mucked his hand thinking it was over. I called and the turn was the 8h. I really like leading at this 1850 chip pot, something like 925. Why?

He is first going to check back so often with hands that have two to four to twelve outs. I freeroll this entire range when I check. Second he doesn't raise my lead with the vast majority of hands he would have bet. Those hands he does raise have my hand drawing dead so I don't need to worry about losing pot equity versus his raising range. My range is also protected as I can lead flushes and nut flushes on this turn card and whether I actually do or not he will perceive it as a possibility given the unusual nature of my line. Without the Ah he cannot cap my range and bluff-raise and he is likely inclined to peel as opposed to raise with the Ah. So I can get value from hands that would check back, get value from some hands that would bet, not get raised by the hands I have equity against but am behind versus (that also would have bet), and not freeroll hands that would have checked back and have equity against me, and are also only putting river money in when ahead.

In any case the turn went check-check, the river was an offsuit Queen. I checked, he bet 1050, I called, which was a mistake, and he showed KQo no hearts. I just don't think he is bluffing enough for me to make a +$EV call here.

Preflop Collection

After that hand I was fortunate enough to double clean with AK in the BB v the BTN's AQ the next orbit. I also busted a 20bb stack who 3b shoved and I reshoved w AK in the BB, holding v his AJ. I chipped up steadily through the next three levels. Then came time to capitalize on my chip stack and TAG image. at 100/200/25 French dude opened to 475, was called by someone with a 3800ish stack in the CO, and was shoved on for 2925 by a middle-aged European guy on the button. I woke up with ATo in the SB and a little opportunity. Basically should I call here, Frenchy is not going to fold 77+ AJ+. However, if I put in the cold 4b with a stack already in, I might get him off 99 and AQ. The stacks did not work awesomely for the cold 4. I had about 15.5k and Frenchy had me covered. A min-raise puts in 1/3 of my stack to fold to a 5-bet. I was fairly confident that Frenchy was folding however, given his wide opening range and activity, and the interest in the pot he had once the shove went in.

It seems like here I am risking a lot to get into a marginal preflop spot. Basically I am laying a price to put in 2825 to win 550+475+475+2925= 4425. This means that the times I get it in versus the short stack my equity needs to be 39% to break even cEV-wise. I would imagine my equity needs to be 42% to be profitable $EV wise, considering the extra monies I am laying out there to get the fold from Frenchy. Was the cold 4 worth it? If we remove 12 AJ combos, 9 AQ combos, and 18 combos of 77-99, we get a pretty high proportion of folds that he might not otherwise make. 39 combos constitutes a fair enough proportion of his opening range that I think the cost we have to pay to 4-bet is justified. This isn't to say he would always continue with 77 facing a flat, or that he would 4bet it, or that I am drawing dead when he overcalls. Sometimes he clicks it back with 66 facing a flat and sometimes he folds to the 4bet with TT. Its pretty unclear to me. But I think my equity against the shorty looks something like this:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.267% 40.53% 04.74% 102020859 11921193.00 { AcTd }
Hand 1: 54.733% 50.00% 04.74% 125845443 11921193.00 { KK-55, A4s+, A9o+, KJo+ }

In any case he folded unhappily, the shorty turned over 99, and I lost the flip to bring me back down to the 12k area. Frenchy was not happy with that, which might have come into play later. I think should shorty's range be tighter, which is certainly possible, this was still a good play. It would have to be quite tight to get down to an equity where I don't think I made a +$EV move, and of course, I hardly think he ever has AA the way he shoved.

Being Precise

At 100/200/25 a relatively short player opened UTG at a 10 handed table to 450 w 4400 to start the hand and I was dealt TT. This spot sucks. The player was middle aged and had clearly shut down in terms of opening and activity. In this spot in MP we simple can't 3bet-call and we can't 3bet shove either, as a few deeper stacks are behind me and my 12,000 chips. Villain's get it in range should we 3-bet is, at best, this:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.819% 43.90% 00.92% 302208708 6300750.00 { TT }
Hand 1: 55.181% 54.27% 00.92% 373536000 6300750.00 { 99+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+ }

More likely it is this:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.295% 36.12% 01.17% 181842348 5909214.00 { TT }
Hand 1: 62.705% 61.53% 01.17% 309756600 5909214.00 { TT+, AQs+, KQs, AKo }

So I just called. This may seem like a really weak play on 22bb effective stacks with an ante out there. But this is a 10 handed WSOP tournament and you have to understand how tight some players UTG ranges are.

French dude naturally came along from the sb, and naturally, I flopped top set on T74fd. UTG player c-bet 1125 into 1800, I smooth called (just smoothed it really), and Frenchy gave me the up and down and let it go. The turn was an offsuit Q, villain checked to me, I put him on JJ, bet 1200 into 4050, he shoved for 2550 total with JJ, and I held. It really is an easy game. Just to recap: every time someone has a pair better than yours, just call preflop so you can hit your set, then get all their money. Don't deviate from this plan!

Running the Big Bluff

We had a lot of chips at my table and a lot of casualties. The result was that stacks were relatively deep for the 1k structure. I tried to take advantage of this about 30 minutes back from break by running a huge bluff. About a year ago I started working with a HS coach who recognized that my ability to get value was light years ahead of my ability to run huge bluffs. I think in that time I have come a really long way. The biggest difference I notice is that I can't remember the last time I didn't pull the trigger. This could obviously be a leak the other way. I'm inclined to believe it was not in this hand, but you can form your own opinion.

I opened to 600 at 150/300/25 with QdJo in the HJ. A mexican pro called in the SB, the BB French dude called out of turn. The flop came 765ddx, it checked to me and I bet 975 at 2050. Only French dude called and the turn was the 2s. He checked once again and I bet 2750 into 4000. He called after a little apprehension. The river was the 4d. The pot is 9500 and he checked to me. After not too much thought I made eye contact with the dealer (I am in the 6 seat) and say "I'm all in." French dude throws up both arms and looks to the sky. It is about 10500 into 9500, a small overbet. At this point I am relaxed, just looking at a spot, imagining it is reasonably likely someone who throws their arms up in frustration is going to fold and I am going to scoop up some chips and keep building. Not long after, maybe 5-10 seconds into the tank, French dude says call. I look up a little taken aback... I was waiting for a long stew! I made sure he said call, the dealer confirmed, and I was out. French dude showed 47o, no diamond.

My bluff looks quite bad in that I am firing the turn with very little equity, and he called with a hand one would think he would fold. After all I am representing all better hands than his and he has no narrative reason for believing I would decided to bluff off. The only hands I have shown down are AK aipf twice, TT on T74,Q, QJ on AKTXY, and ATo v 99. Given that it is 10 handed poker I have not been playing LAG by any stretch. In any case I don't think he was thinking about any of those things; given he practically snapped I don't think he was thinking through much. This is my fault. Players often get mad at bad players for not understanding what they are representing with a bluff. But it is the bluffer's fault for putting the villain on a thought process he is incapable of, and that's certainly the misread I made here. I had played with French dude for six hours already that day so I was reasonably confident he would fold without a straight or a flush, and that, because of his x/c, x/c, x/ line and my Qd he could basically have very few, if any, flushes. Sure, sometimes I am going to be called by 88 here, or 78. Bluffs don't have to work all the time. But if I am not getting a fold out of 99, 47 type hands, then it is obviously a -$EV, -cEV bluff. I am not losing any sleep over it though. Had you asked me at dinner break would French dude fold 47 in this spot given the action and given it was me, I would have bet a lot of money on it. So with the information I had, the read I had, and the skill set I have, I would have thought this the right river play. Turns out it wasn't. That's going to happen.

Until next year?

I am back in Canada for a while now as I try to rebuild from what would be adequately described as heavy losses. Next blog post I make is going to outline the personal coaching I offer. With a little help from me, you can go 1 for 11 at the WSOP too ;)! CR has shut down the coaching forum so I might get some former students to just post in the comments. I haven't had any complaints or issues as a coach so far and will have lots of free time in the next four months or so to take on students. I should be back to making videos again for CR as well. My next offering will likely be a 3 part quickie series on live cash hands from the WSOP. I am starting to work on it today, so look for it soon!

As far as going back next year, that's going to depend a lot on my bankroll. My current goal is to make it to Peru for the LAPT stop in November. I played last year and the main is a 2.5k so it should be do-able. I miss Peru and traveling.

Thanks

I would be remiss if I didn't thank all the CR members and blog readers who supported me during the WSOP. You guys really are something else! Guys from the house, Chris, Kevin, Max, Bill, and Austin, who sat on the rail as day 1s wound down at 2am. You guys are awesome I can't believe the support I got from you! CR guys, especially my students Andrey, Ed, Alex, Chris, Kevin, and Michael, and members/coaches Ken aces, Liam, Jonmon, Jaggy, NorthSquad, Titology, epdog, Eazy, Redstone, Celt, and Daysleeper; I read all of the messages of support. I couldn't have done this without Andrew or Jeff, both to whom I owe a debt of gratitude. Shout out to Riske, SkinnyBrown, KRC, and Kainer. You guys got my back and I won't forget it. Of course I would never leave out NBA handicapping shark extraordinaire Teamwillow. You are the man (but you already knew that).

peace guys

Gareth