First, a quick WSOP prelim wrapup.

No cashes in the last three unfortunately. In the weekend ones my all-in track record wasn't the best, losing both times I got AA all-in pre (once to KQs and once to AKo). I also busted the final $1k in a hand where I deviated from my standard line.

Blinds: $75-$150

UTG raises to $400, CO flats, I shove $3200 OTB with AQo.

Despite a solid risk/reward ratio, I normally wouldn't shove AQ there, particularly when UTG is a conservatively-dressed player in his 30s, since he may be on a very narrow opening range. But he'd recently shown down 32s after raising MP1, and I wasn't too suspicious of the random deciding to flat in late position, so I shipped it and lost to UTG's AKo. I'm pretty sure the shove is unexploitable though(i.e. profitable regardless of calling ranges) given UTG's opening range and the CO's flatting range, so no regrets there.

Not the best finish to my prelims, but while I was down a bit overall, I did cash in three of the events and played my best. Two of the day 2's I made I started with a nicely above-average stack, but lost pretty much all my all-ins. I'm not complaining, that's just poker and I'm sure I ran good in other ways. And Katie cleaned up in her prelim package which was awesome.

I play Day 1b of the main event on Sunday, hoping for a good run.

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A lot of people are still talking about the face-up quads fold in One Drop. I don't have the exact details, but will reconstruct the action as closely as I can to start the discussion.

Blinds: $6000-$12000-$2000

Preflop: Dwan raises to $32k (position unknown), Mikhail Smirnov calls in SB with 8h 8d, John Morgan calls in BB.

Flop: Js 8c 7s (Pot: $114k)

Action: Smirnov bets $50k, Morgan calls "quickly," Dwan folds.

Turn: 8s (Pot: $214k)

Action: Smirnov bets $200k, Morgan insta-calls.

River: Ks (Pot: $614k)

Action: Smirnov bets $700k, Morgan shoves $3.4M, Smirnov folds face-up.

Analysis: Smirnov afterward says this was a "very easy fold," which I think most would agree at least intuitively is a strange comment to make here.

I agree that the river shove indicates huge strength, particularly from a tighter player. So let's assume that Morgan is almost never bluffing or randomly shoving without a purpose. The only hands consistent with the river action are, let's say, JJ, KK, and Ts9s.

So now let's look at the earlier streets. Ts9s is the most consistent with the preflop action, but one aspect of the flop and turn are inconsistent. In particular, quick calls are rarely monsters. Everyone agrees that Morgan insta-called the turn. It's just super unlikely he makes a quick flop call with the nuts and doesn't even consider raising, and it's even more unlikely on the turn in a million dollar tourney in a large pot holding the stone nuts facing a large bet. Same with JJ, both of those hands are strong enough that turn snap-calls are unlikely. Definitely not impossible, just inconsistent with the timing.

So the alternative is KK. While Morgan would most likely 3bet KK preflop, a cautious amateur could have decided to avoid playing a large pot OOP against Dwan with a fairly deep effective stack, even with a monster. The quick flop and turn calls would then be less inconsistent with a hand like KK, as would the river shove.

So I believe that KK is Morgan's most likely holding in this spot.

But let's make the most generous assumptions we can for Smirnov's fold:

There are three KK combos and one Ts9s combo. Therefore Smirnov has 75% equity against Morgan's shoving range while getting around 7:4 and therefore needing only about 36% equity. Alternatively, Smirnov would be paying $2.7M for 75% equity in a $7.414M pot, for an equity gain of around $2.9M chips.

Smirnov therefore forfeits reasonably close to a million dollars in equity by folding there, based on the above assumptions. For that reason I believe this fold to be one of the most significant mistakes equity-wise in the history of tourament poker.

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