My friend Greg Jones just released a course on 9-man SNGs that I wrote the forward to. It includes a text, three videos, and an intro where he tells a story about me eating a huge burrito and calling a $50 bill "chump change." (My recollection is that I politely asked the waiter for change, but I come across as a trendy if somewhat arrogant baller in his version so that's cool.)
I think the material - particularly the sections on pivot points and range construction -- should be very useful to any 9-man player at the beginner or intermediate level, so definitely check it out.
Congrats to BlackPersian for chopping the Big $109 3-handed today, then shipping it for the points. There was an interesting hand he played that we discussed involving a possible huge stats-based fold that then got analyzed quite a bit in the TM Skype Strategy chat.
8-handed at the final table, folds to Hero in SB with stack of ~ 35bb. He opens 2.1x with AJo, and Villain shoves a stack of around 20bb in the big blind. Villain has stats of 4/2 (0% 3bet) after 70 hands. Call or fold?
I thought this was a pretty clear decision. 20 bb deep post-ante, BvB, raise/calling AJo? Seems the definition of standard. While BP did make the call, a decision I strongly agree with, he brought up the possibility of raise/folding based on the stats. I was surprised when a couple others liked that idea and/or thought it was very close.
The problem to me with raise/folding is that it's just too exploitable. If we're opening say two-thirds of hands here and folding a hand like AJo to a shove, he'll have a great ATC 3bet and can exploit us like crazy. Of course, if he we know that he's on a static 3bet range of JJ+/AK or something insanely tight like that, then it doesn't matter that he could exploit us since he's not. But to me, 70 hands of extreme tightness isn't a big enough read to make a huge fold like this.
So my question: Would you ever consider folding in this spot, and what type of read/stack sizes/other factors would you need to fold AJo 20bb deep in a BvB spot?