First, I was recently given a copy of the very cool HEM app LeakBuster. While I don't have a ton of cash hands in my HEM database, I agreed to check it out, and was impressed with the charts and recommendations it quickly output from my hands. Check out the software here.

I've also recently been using the Merge hotkeys program MergeKeys in my BCP games; I'd strongly recommend this great freeware for anyone playing on there. Check it out here (and please donate to the guy who created it if you start using it regularly, it's amazing he's not charging for this).

So, on to the topic of today's blog. A few bloggers I like such as Verneer, Gakn29, and others have recently posted some really interesting takes on the poker coaching market. A lot of the writing has stemmed from the current 2+2 NVG debate. I'll weigh on a few aspects.

Is it unethical to coach a player who's a reg in games higher than you've beaten?

It depends. If the coaching is misleading potential students about his results in any way, then yes. If not and the player still wants the coaching due to other accomplishments, the coach's knowledge of theory, a low hourly rate, or anything else -- then there wouldn't be anything wrong with that. As an example at the far end of the spectrum, a top pro beating $10k live MTTs and $300-$600 mix game could hire a coach to help with tracking software leak-finding or deep-stacked no-limit game theory, even if that coach has never played those levels. TM manager Simon has a quote that sums it up very well, which is that even Tiger Woods has a golf coach.

What about for a player who was flat-out not a winner to offer coaching ?

Not unethical if the coach was completely upfront about this fact, although in this case I think there'd be a very limited market for such a coach unless it was a specific niche like mental game coaching. In practice I picture a strategy coach with losing results trying to hide this fact, which would of course cross over into unethical territory. But if he didn't hide it and people still wanted him, to each his own!

What is the problem of incentive alignment in poker coaching?

If you pay a coach $100 for a one-hour session, his incentives to provide you with the best possible instruction include: his reputation, and psychic utility from doing the best possible job. One disincentive would be if he thought you were likely to play in his games in the near future.

No matter how valuable the info he gives you, however, he's still collecting that $100 for the hour of his time. That's one reason why Team Moshman coaching deals are all in the for-profit model. The better the student is playing, the more the coach earns. Now I'm not in any way saying that coaches who charge an hourly won't given exceptional coaching, I'm confident that many are fantastic coaches. I'm only saying that from the student's perspective, it is important to consider what incentives your coach has.

What hourly rate should a coach charge relative to his hourly rate playing?

There's been some debate about what an hourly rate coach should charge relative to his playing hourly. Like any other service, there will be a market rate for a particular type of instruction such as coaching from a very winning $5 9-man SNG player with good references. This rate will be based on the supply of similar coaches and the demand for them, and may result in a rate that is more or less than that coach's hourly playing.




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Why is this hand controversial? Mainly because I thought that'd make a catchy blog title. But I also got pretty adamant feedback in both directions when I asked our TM Skype Strategy Chat for opinions.

The hand took place with 16 left in a 45-man, 7 paid:

Blinds: $300.00/$600.00/$50 ante (8 players)

SB JohnPXFFan5: $3,647

BB decimator13: $14,850

UTG GoldenDux: $2,775

UTG+1 TheMoshMan: $12,145

MP JoeMomasNuts: $2,969

MP+1 KcolWorld: $2,214

CO tigerposey: $2,487

BTN walltucky: $2,504

Pre-flop: ($1300) TheMoshMan is UTG+1 and dealt

GoldenDux folds, TheMoshMan raises to $1,333, 5 folds, decimator13 calls $733

Flop: ($3,366) (2 players)

decimator13 checks, TheMoshMan bets $1,333, decimator13 calls $1,333

Turn: ($6,032) (2 players)

decimator13 bets $12,134, TheMoshMan ...

Villain had stats of 40/32 after a small sample.

The first comment I got was that this was a clear call. The second comment was that Villain had JX every time. What's difficult about the hand (obviously I guess) is putting the guy on a range. So, call or fold here?






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I played my first Venetian deep stack of the season last week. It was the usual mix of live players. The 3 seat had one goal, which was to find ways of informing the table he was used to playing a lot higher. After the dealer announced that both hands in an all-in at the river had to be tabled -- neither hand being the 3 seat's - he shouted that they hadn't had that rule at the WSOP.

The player to my right, meanwhile, was pretty decent except that he seemed to think everyone at the table wanted to play the 3/4/5-bet game with him even though no one was. In the hand before the one I reference in the title, he opens to $850 on the button at $200-$400-$50, and the tight big blind made it $3k. He shoved for an additional $7k effective, got snap-called, and seemed annoyed as he was forced to table K7o and lost to AJ (which had to be about the bottom of the big blind's range).

So, the title hand:

Blinds: $200-$400-$50

Action: UTG limps, MP1 limps, cutoff shoves $6k, I call for $3400 with JTs on the button.

A brief pause in the narrative. UTG was a loose-passive recreational player. MP1 was a wild Italian player playing something like 90/20, and while I thought he might make an insane call against one all-in, facing two shoves I thought he'd be pretty likely to fold. And after spewing off his stack the previous hand, I thought the cutoff could be on a super-wide range. If I got it heads-up against him, which seemed pretty likely if I called, I'd be getting 3:2 against a range wide enough that I thought I had quite a bit more than the 40% equity I needed.

So that was my brilliant master plan, which seemed to have merit as the cutoff did indeed flip 75s when it came time. But there was one aspect I hadn't counted on. When it got back to the Italian in MP1, he picked up his horse card protector, smiled drunkenly at it, and said, "What's that horsey? You tell me to make bad call here? Okay!" And he tossed in his chips.

He had A7s so it wasn't actually that bad a spot for me even though I busted, and at least the table (myself included) got a kick out of hearing him do the horse voice.

Heads-up in the $33 turbo on Merge against a good reg:

Merge Network $3,000 Guaranteed Deepstack Turbo Freezeout No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t6000.00/t12000.00 Blinds + t1200.00 - 2 players

MeEatCookies: t429276.00 M = 21.04

TheMoshMan (BTN/SB): t190324.00 M = 9.33

Pre Flop: (t20400) TheMoshMan is BTN/SB with A 2

TheMoshMan raises to t24277.00, MeEatCookies calls t12277

Flop: (t50954) 7 7 3(2 players)

MeEatCookies checks, TheMoshMan bets t23777.00, MeEatCookies raises to t50000.00, Hero raises to t172047 all in, MeEatCookies folds

Final Pot: t150954

A comment on a recent video I made argued strongly to c-bet/call ace-high HU short-stacked on an 888 flop instead of checking back and calling turn. The benefits are that you give him a good opportunity to check/raise bluff at a time when you're almost always good on a dry flop, since a reg is super-likely to 3bet shove pre with better ace-highs or any pair. So in this spot, while occasionally he'll show up with Q3s, 75s, KK, etc., way more often he's bluffing with 9-high or something reasoning that I'm very likely to have missed and he's getting a good price on a check/raise bluff.

My initial plan had been to bet and call a check/shove, but when he c/r's small another option presents itself, namely flatting with the plan of letting him fire again. Since I'm usually giving him a 13% chance to hit 6 outs and win a large pot, and there's no guarantee he'll fire again, I think it's reasonable to just ship the flop even though it doesn't take much advantage of the fact that I have ace-high. Opinions?

[Credit to Otas32 for the image.]




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Katie and I met up with Katie75013, KillerEV, MachtiSonni, Machti's friend Mikko, and Machti's hat at Grande Luxe at Venetian. Katie told the waitress that we had to make the 7pm donkament and she got really panicky and told us a moment later that the manager had veto'd Mikko's salisbury steak order due to concerns over the donkament.

Fortunately we only missed a couple riveting hands of 25-50 action. I was the first to bust, losing most of my stack after making an equity-vs-range call.

Blinds: $100-$200

Action: I open Ad9s to $525 in the cutoff, older guy calls OTB, BB calls.

Flop: 3d 9h Td (Pot: $1675)

Action: BB checks, I bet $1100, button shoves ~$5500, BB folds, I call.

This is a fairly straightforward equity-vs-range situation, but I used to have some trouble with those live when you've got to count or reconstruct the pot, estimate the other guy's stack, and do the math in your head while everyone's waiting for you. Fortunately after playing a decent amount live I've gotten better at focusing in spots like this.

The pot was a bit under $8500 and it cost me about $4400, so I was getting close to 2:1 and therefore wanted about 35% equity against his range. The key is that I don't actually have to put him on a specific range. With a roughly 6.5 out draw if behind, I'll improve about 25% to a likely-best hand. So what it really comes down to is whether this guy's sometimes semi-bluffing or value-shoving worse, or whether the vast majority of his ranges is TX or better value-shoves. Against a random 70-year-old that's a real concern, but I'd seen him open-shove an 11 bb stack from the hijack with K8s earlier so I figured he'd be making a play often enough that I had my equity.

I called and he flipped KsJs. Turn Qd and I thought my extra 1.5 flop outs might be coming in handy, but wasn't to be. Fortunately I made up for my devastating $120 donkament loss at the cash tables. One strange 2/5 hand:

Loose-passive 60-year-old hijack open-limps, button calls, SB completes, I raise to $30 with AcKc, hijack thinks and makes it $60, folded back to me. Really wasn't thrilled with the spot, but since he'd seen me attack limps a number of times before and (more important) he only started the hand off with about $320, I just 4bet shipped. He snap-called.

Board ran out: 3d 3c Jc 8h 9c

I quickly tabled my flush and he mucked without showing before storming off from the table.

I was playing at KillerEV's table which was a lot of fun, but he left at around 11 so I did the socialable thing and table-changed to join Machti's where he was crushing en route to what would end up a +$950 session, not bad at 1/2! It was great getting the opportunity to meet him and talk poker.

Also great to have Katie75013 in Vegas, as well as see KillerEV like always, but now I've hit awards show speech territory so I'd better call it a blog.






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Katie and I just got back from a 4-day trip to Napa. Three stories from a very fun trip.

The Poker Metaphor Horseback Guide

We went horseback riding through Kunde winery in Sonoma. The guide asked what we did. My response to that question 99% of the time is "writer and investor," but Katie gave an answer involving poker. For the rest of the tour, anything he wanted to communicate became a poker metaphor.

"You see," he'd say on the topic of horseback riding knowledge, "before we can go over things like pair beats high card, higher pair beats pair, the first step is learning to keep your cards on the table."

I didn't understand most of the metaphors but he was a very nice guy and the scenery was beautiful.

FWIW if you're ever in that area, I'd highly highly recommend doing the mountain tasting at Kunde. By far the best tasting we did in every way:

Everyone Drunk at 2pm

At Domaine Carneros, we went on a tour + tasting. There's nowhere like wine country for a place where it's socially acceptable to get drunk at noon (for the cultured sake of tasting fine wine). Unlike most of the tours/tastings, the Domaine guide drank with us and tended to pour herself about double what she was pouring us. By the end she was pouring everyone random sparkling wines - I've now had it hammered into me about 40 times that unless it's made in the Champagne region of France it's "sparkling wine" and not "champagne" - and people were in different states of intoxication. I asked the well-dressed middle-aged woman next to me how she'd learned so much about wine, and she slurred "Honey I don't know shit about wine..." Then she leaned in conspiratorally and told me that she was annoyed at our guide because she (the guide) hadn't poured enough wine. As we left the guide was drunkenly trying to convince her and her husband to buy bottles right then so she would get the commission for them.

The Googling Waiter and $20.12 Special

We ate at Farm, a great restaurant attached to a super-expensive hotel. Most main courses were $40+ but Katie had found an insane special for a 3-course tasting for $20.12. The waiter told us we had come during amazing weather and then said "Well played" twice. Katie said he must've Googled us but I wasn't sure since I'd thought WP had made its way at least somewhat into mainstream culture. But by the time he started referring to "Hoyle's rules" I had to admit she might have a point.

I sometimes start rambling on goofy ideas that amuse me for whatever reason, and that night it was the idea of ordering 3 of the special menus per person. Just being like, "Damn that was so good, let's do it again." Seeing how many of these super-well-priced 3 course dinners they'd bring out for us consecutively before basically telling us to leave the restaurant.




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Five days late with this one, but better late than never!

Despite 2011 being the year of Black Friday, I'm still pretty happy with the year. If not I probably wouldn't be writing this blog, come to think of it. Anyway without further ado, poker-related stuff I did in 2011:

Released Math of Holdem with Dimat

Began making videos for Pokerstrategy, and continued making videos for Cardrunners

Released two ebooks co-authored with Katie: The Superuser and Pro Poker Strategy

Made Day 5 of WSOP main event with above average stack (prior to the infamous KK < AA hand)

Won a (smallish) Venetian Deep Stack tournament and chopped HU a Bellagio $550

Rebounded after Black Friday to expand Team Moshman coaching/staking with my partners

Maintained a 36% ROI online with a $56 ABI (playing a mix of primarily MTT and HU)

And my #1 accomplishment of 2011, coincidentally also my #1 accomplishment of 2010:

Chilling with the Iceman baby!

It was also a very fun year outside of poker, with an awesome trip to Paris in February with Katie and our move to Vegas. Most of my goals in 2012 are poker-related, but one outside of poker is getting an article accepted into at least one major non-poker publication. I just sent out a query letter to Men's Health and I'm writing one now for Cigar Aficionado, which has a smaller circulation but I've always thought of as a really cool magazine.

Next week Katie and I are going to Norcal (Napa) so should be a great start to 2012.




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The first time I staked for live cash was in the very early days of Team Moshman.

Katie and I met Simon for the first time at our house in Maryland, and we drove up to Atlantic City to meet up with Kidkash and Grind4moniez at Borgata. I staked everyone at 60-40 (my favor) with no make-up, and everyone was up. By the end of the weekend, Kidkash somehow convinced me to let Grind sit the 40-80 LHE game, which he proceeded to crush for a couple hours before heading off to his room to get stoned.

That was my high point in live staking. I've subsequently staked players for NL cash from ½ to 5/10, limit games, and low-stakes live MTT. Most have lost, particularly in cash - in fact, all the longer-term live cash stakes have ended with me eating quite a bit of makeup.

The question is - has it just been running bad, or is there something else going on?

I was talking with a casual player about it, and he said he'd never stake live because a player could simply have a good session and report lower wins. It doesn't take any premeditation and is pretty much impossible to catch. Or possibly a player makes tracking mistakes that tend to be in his favor. Either way, unlike online, there aren't clear records outside of selected MTTs.

If I've backed you before live and you're reading this, definitely don't take that to mean that I think you've done anything wrong. I'd bet strongly that most I've backed haven't. Ultimately though, I need to fully back players I stake - if something's preventing me from having full confidence in a stake and what's going on, I don't think it's a good spot for either me or the horse.

Without turning this blog into some kind of infomerical, I'm definitely excited about our current online staking program with the stake mentor system, more organized shot-taking, and an active community focused around Skype chats. If the price is never being a Sheets/Bax style baller with 100 horses in the WSOP main event, then I'm good with that.

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Or so it seems :)

I was surprised to read this article in Cardplayer on re-entry tournaments. It's well-written and presents multiple viewpoints on them, so the article itself is solid. Several of the players' views are misguided though.

First let's define terms.

Rebuy: Tournament where you can purchase another stack if you bust or your chips fall below a certain threshhold, usually the starting stack. You stay at your same seat and table.

Re-entry: Tournament where, if you bust, you can enter again - paying the rake a second time, getting a new table/seat draw, etc.

Most of the live tournies Katie and I played over the past couple of months were re-entries. A big theme among several of the players quoted in the Cardplayer article was that single-bullet players were at a disadvantage compared to those willing to shell out for multiple bullets, had lower equity, etc. This is false.

What's true is that single-bullet players have a lower chance of winning compared to a similarly-skilled player prepared to re-enter anytime he busts during the re-entry period. If you have a goal of maximizing your win probability rather than making the most money possible - because you're a rich amateur, have a prop bet, hunting for endorsements, etc. - then you can gain an advantage in re-entries.

As with conventional rebuys though, for most players the focus should remain on making solid investments with a good expectation. Any players willing to make a chip-losing play because it's a re-entry/rebuy is either misguided or has a different goal than maximizing return on investment. The initial rebuy in a standard rebuy, despite exchanging the same amount of money for less valuable chips, can be a good investment if (as in most fields) many players who have rebought are routinely putting their double-stacks at risk in "marginal" situations. Making such bad plays yourself in a rebuy or re-entry, however, while increasing your chance of winning if you're rebuying often to get a huge stack, will lower your return on investment - possibly to negative.

Personally, I like re-entries. Generally I'm not going to re-enter, as the blinds will tend to be higher at the point of re-entry so it's like paying the same rake as you did initially for a worse structure. But if it's a softer-than-normal field I can re-enter if I bust early, and as Kathy Liebert alludes to in the article, there are plenty of players who will splash around a lot more "because" they can re-enter.

As a final point, some claim that pros are more likely to re-enter than amateurs. While I can't say whether that's true, from the smallish sample I saw it wasn't. Continuing on the anecdotal front, I heard that the $100k WPT high roller became a re-entry at the last minute as the only two people interested in re-entering were rich businessmen.

In summary: (a) Know your goals for playing and be explicit if they're not to make the most money possible. (b) Focus on making the best possible investments. (c) It'd be awesome to casually re-enter a $100k buyin.









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Saturday was the last tourney of our package, the $5180 WPT at Bellagio. I got up from $20k starting to about $37k in a hand during the 2nd level.

Blinds: $100-$200

Pre-flop: LAG UTG min-raises, UTG+1 calls, button calls, I call Jc4c in BB.

Flop: 4h 4d Th

Checked to UTG+1 who bets $1k, button flats, I c/r to $3k, UTG+1 shoves ~ $14k, button folds, I call and hold against Ah3h.

I lost KK to AQ (but later had KQ > AQ in a resteal spot so can't complain), then made a bit back after I opened A9 in the hijack, got 3 callers, and shoved on a 78T flop after the BB donked ¾ pot -- everyone folded. Todd Terry on my right was opening a ton of hands (and playing very well) so I had some good resteal opportunities and shoved Q9o, AKs and a couple more hands over him leading up to a cold 4bet with 99. Blinds were 400-800-100, ADZ opened to $2400 UTG, Terry 3-bet to $6100 UTG+1, and I shoved about $22k in the CO with 99. Everyone folds to Terry, who tanks then flashes Ac4c and folds.

After folding he said that I was on a range of 99/AQ and he had 31% equity against that range (which the guy on his right confirmed was accurate on his phone) and therefore he was just missing the right price. It was a straight-up old school equity vs range clinic.

I also played two interesting hands in the BB against Cary Katz, who had recently busted from the $100k high roller. He was quite LAG, minraising a ton from all positions. In the first hand, I called his river bet with ace-high expecting to be good and feel like a pimp, except for the small fact that I was totally wrong.

Blinds: $300-600-$75

Pre-flop: Katz min-raises UTG, button calls, I call in BB with As6s.

Flop: Jc 9d 3s

Checked around.

Turn: Jh

I bet $2400, Catz calls, button folds.

River: 9h

I check, Catz bets $6k, I call.

I thought he was representing very few hands after not c-betting that flop, to me it looked a lot more like he was bluffing a counterfeited 66 or something. Unfortunately as soon as I called he flipped QsJs.

I did get the best of him though in my next big blind defense, albeit through very unusual circumstances. He again min-raised in early position last hand before dinner break and I called with A2o getting almost 4:1. Flop comes K Q J 2. Personally I thought a flop with 4 cards was a pretty cool way to shake things up a little at the table, but the dealer called the floor who ruled that the cards be put back in deck, shuffled, and new flop to be dealt. The new flop was a slight improvement over bottom pair and a gutshot as it came A A A. I played it cool and checked my quads, but he didn't bite and checked it back. I bet the turn and he called, but folded to my river bet.

Then it was dinner break and we were all led to the buffet for a comped dinner. Ship it!

Based on the title of the blog, you can probably guess how the rest of the tournament ended up.

Blinds: $5k-$1k-$100

UTG raises to $2400, UTG+1 calls, CO makes it $6700, I shove $32k on button with QQ, UTG calls (AA radar immediately went up when he called instead of shoving), everyone else folds. He in fact has KK and I'm out.

No more live tournies for a while, will be good to get back to normal work and recharge some.










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