BananaBalla's Blog


November 22 2008

Someday you`re gonna run worse than you ever have before

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Since Sept 1, I have run 50 buyins below expectation in all-in`s at PLO50 (according to PokerEV software, take that fwiw).

No, I didn`t play perfect, but whether you play well or not, running that god awful sucks. Not being able to move up sucks even more I think.

So ummm for those of you who think 50 buyins is enough to play PLO comfortably.... it is until you feel the wrath of variance.

For anyone wondering, this is over about 90k hands.

I do feel like I have fixed a major leak recently, and understand this game better than I ever have before.

This morning I played my shortest session in months where I lost 6 buyins in completely standard spots, and decided to quit after 170 hands even though mentally I was feeling fine.

I got it all in with AA78ds vs Q9J5 rags (he was some guy on tilt or something), and obv flop is 99x.
Same guy, I got it all in with AAJ7hhh vs K963 ds and obv lost to a K9x flop.

Then I 3bet AAK4hhdd pf for 20bb pf, against a fish and another player, flop came 339hh. I bet half pot to induce a shove from fish, other player shoves, but I obv can`t fold with my nfd given the amount in the pot. Fish has KK77, other player has AJJ3 ds. Turn is a J of hearts lol.

Later on I flop top set on a K8Jcc flop, get it all in vs a monster wrap (QT97cc) - standard from both sides, not much I can do there.

On another hand, in a limped pot, I flop middle set with a fd on a AQ5 board, I potted it, am called in one spot. Turn is a blank, I pot again, he raises, I shove - yes there`s a good chance he has AAxx here, but most people aren`t flatting top set on a fd, sd flop. Turns out he had top set with the nfd, river is a 5, gg me.

All pretty standard hands, I`ve just been running awful since Sept, and well lucky for me I don`t play for a living. Everyone says that the high stakes players today who have done really well have been very lucky to have had upswings at the right time, and they`re prob right. Obviously the high stakes players are generally very good, but I`m sure you can imagine that if one of them had run bad from the beginning, he might`ve quit poker altogether, and never realized his full potential.


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