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Hey guys, put in a ton of volume, over
13k hands this weekend. I had a really successful day on Saturday
and lost it back Sunday. Saturday I was super happy with my overall
play because nothing was really going well but I hung in until I hit
a great hour where I won everyhand. Sunday was a different story,
and after the day was over I really felt like I played pretty well
and ran terribly in the last hour where I lost 8bi and lost 5bi in
the final 180 hands. Thank god that I have recommitted myself to
this blog because in the past I just would have assumed that I ran
poorly, but in reality I played some terrible hands and in particular
I made far far far too many light call downs in some really obvious
value spots for my opponents. The cool thing about all of this
though is how well I dealt with the big loss. I still am very
confident about my game and I know I will learn from all of the
mistakes that I made. Here are hands from the past three days.
http://weaktight.com/4826634
TT < QQ 3 handed
http://weaktight.com/4826635
AQ < JJ HU
http://weaktight.com/4826636
Unlucky
http://weaktight.com/4826637
99 < KK in a spot that at first
doesn't necessarily look great, but this player was 3betting 24% in
bb over a large sample so I almost treated 99 like the nuts. In one
previous hand he 5bet me small over my 4bet bluff. I still am not
sure if he 5bets small with everything that he intends on going with
(not just premium holdings like KK but also hands like AJ or 66), all
of his top 2 or 3% of hands, or even could he 5bet bluff? I lean
towards the first option but will be analyzing him closely to make a
decision on this.
http://weaktight.com/4826638
Ok so this is a really tough spot imo.
The player is 30/18 over 70 hands. He has folded to 2/2 3bets, and
has a 40% fold to cbet stat. I think his preflop calling range is
roughly comprised of: 77-TT, AQ, Aqsuited, KQ suited, a few combos of
Kqoff or KJ suited, QJ suited, AJ suited, and possibly a few Ax
suiteds or suited connectors. On the river, I think he gets there
with 77-TT, AX of hearts, and Kx. I definitely think that check
calling is the correct play because I will get to showdown against
the pocket pairs and will pick off the heart draws which will bluff
almost always. Additionally I thought that the amount of his heart
draws was increased because I did not have the ace of hearts.
*** My friend made a very good point
that his Ax combos he might believe he has showdown here, and thus
will be checking his AX of heart hands. I think I do agree with
this, and if that is the case then this is a poor call. Upon review
I like c-f this hand instead of calling.
http://weaktight.com/4826639
Played the hand fine until the river,
but really don't like my river call, I justified it by thinking he is
in a bluff vortex that was inspired by my small turn bet. This also
leads me to note that once they checkraise the flop, I think I should
be betting these turns when he checks quite big because really my
alternatives are him c-f a ton of rivers, or sucking out. I think my
opponents are incredibly unbalanced once they CR flop and check turn
so I just need to bet turn and be done with the hand.
http://weaktight.com/4826640
This guy's calling range on flop is so
damn wide that I don't mind this high variance shove at all really.
http://weaktight.com/4826641
His betsize actually leveled me here.
A lot of times I would just call the turn and steal a lot of rivers
from him, but on the turn I actually thought his betsizing contained
more bluffs than big hands, and I figured if I just called, then if
he was bluffing on the turn he would rarely shutdown and I would only
have my 9 true outs. So I wanted to increase my equity in the hand
by bluffing.
http://weaktight.com/4826642
Yuck
http://weaktight.com/4826643
Obviously I called with this sort of
hand because this player was the target at the table, but I think
this is simply too loose, and my hand is not good enough with a bunch
of players still left to act, and it came back to bite me
http://weaktight.com/4826644
AQ < KK, another spot with a tiny
4bet, I need to be more cognizant of these bets and then see if they
are doing it with bluffs as well.
http://weaktight.com/4826645
Its really no fun folding draws against
bad players who you think will pay you off big time, but when he
slight overbets the turn on paired board, this is definitely a spot I
need to be folding, and I paid for it.
Definitely felt like today the small
mistakes I was making were really magnified on later streets. So I
need to really work on tightening up my early street calling ranges a
little more.
http://weaktight.com/4826647
Another example of a small mistake
really coming back to bite me, I think the flop is either a raise or
a fold, but I guess he fooled me on future streets with his
betsizing, but I really don't have a problem with my barrel off here
at all.
http://weaktight.com/4826648
Unlucky, felt like I was folding AA
postflop all day, it was really sick how early I had to fold AA, it
wasn't like tough river decisions, but I was folding AA on flops and
turns on boards like 5679, JJT9 etc
http://weaktight.com/4826649
Unlucky here, really tough but good
call too
http://weaktight.com/4826650
This was his first hand at the table so
I thought his range was really wide and his bluffing range would be
greater than normal. I think my read is backed up by the actual hand
he showed up with, and would not be surprised if he took a very
similar line if he didn't turn two pair. With that said, if he was
bluffing river, I think he would probably be betting larger. At the
time I was quite worried because the size seemed to indicate value.
I think he does have enough Ax or even KQ in his range here to
justify a call but it is very close.
http://weaktight.com/4831094
A little FPS here, but I thought my
info was solid on my opponent to justify the pre and post flop plays,
maybe next time I should just stick in a cold 4bet bluff instead
http://weaktight.com/4831095
I never feel totally comfortable
sticking in sevens here because you will be flipping such a large
percentage of the time, with that said inside of 50 hands played
against this guy on a few tables, it became very clear that getting
the money in with this hand preflop was my best option
http://weaktight.com/4831096
So quite honestly I messed this one up
pretty badly. I looked solely and quickly at his 3bet stat in the
big blind which was 18% so I felt very confident about getting AQ in
here in over 300 hands. The issue becomes that he was a 19/17
player, so even if he does have a high 3bet stat, there is a greater
likelihood that the sample size is too small and he has been running
very well than he is a total maniac.
http://weaktight.com/4831097
Unlucky board runout, but I still dont
think I am ever getting bluffed here, and the real question is will a
hand like A8 or 98 value own himself here? I definitely talked
myself into that but I later made a note that he is unable to achieve
thin value bets so therefore if I had this info it 100% would have
been a fold.
http://weaktight.com/4831098
Super unlucky to run into a big hand
here
http://weaktight.com/4831099
AK < AA
http://weaktight.com/4831101
99 < QQ, I think when I have a bad
day of running hands preflop, its not a terrible idea to take the
lower variance play and just call a 3bet here. I still think against
this opponent 4bet calling it off is a more +ev play but its close
http://weaktight.com/4831102
QQ < KK
http://weaktight.com/4831103
5bet bluff fails, just felt like a day
where if I got in a hand preflop besides AA or KK I was going to run
into a big hand. With that said I have run amazing recently its
totally fine to have some of these days, it is just a matter of how
I move on from here and staying positive.
http://weaktight.com/4831105
CR bluff and barreled off failed, I
think its a pretty good spot to triple barrel, I think he calls the
turn with QT, 8T, KJ, QJ, JT and he would be fast playing most hands
on the flop, so I was really worried about AAA and AJ.
http://weaktight.com/4831106
unlucky
http://weaktight.com/4831107
Lost top two to a combo draw
http://weaktight.com/4831108
lol, well I was certainly right that he
was going to be floating me super wide on the flop
http://weaktight.com/4831109
This guy has a ton of bluffs in his
3bet calling range, but with that said I was completely overwhelmed
by that fact and was not thinking about the hand very well at all, if
I would have thought more about his overall range, I think I would
just fold the turn because his hand looks a hell of a lot like
something with the ace of hearts in his hand
http://weaktight.com/4831110
Unlucky
http://weaktight.com/4831111
Ive never played against this guy
before, but this leads me to believe even more that this should be a
fold on the river, really terrible play by me
http://weaktight.com/4831112
Another really easy fold on the river
that I fail to make
*** OK BIGGEST PROBLEM WITH MY PLAY IN
THE LAST TWO DAYS IS THAT I AM MAKING TOO MANY THIN CALL DOWNS. Make
a few more folds and make some profit for folding hands that most
people are unable to get away from.
http://weaktight.com/4831113
Top two vs bottom set against a guy
that would stack off with a good middle pair
http://weaktight.com/4831114
Eh, my preflop call is a little too
light here. He is just too tight and the stacks are not nearly deep
enough
http://weaktight.com/4831115
This one is close, but honestly I think
this is a c-f on the river. I think he only bets sets and flushes,
and I don't think he value bet thinly enough with AQ or AJ (and
probably its not very smart to do so anyway), so a very tough but
correct c-f on the river here.
http://weaktight.com/4831116
I was really shocked I was behind here
http://weaktight.com/4831117
Man just so many calls that I made
today that should have been fold. This easily should have been a
-5bi day, not a -8bi day.
http://weaktight.com/4831120
Stop with the hero calls Grant
goddamnit. Honestly I am so happy that I am reviewing these hands
and can see my mistakes. I originally just thought I ran terribly
the final hour of my Sunday and that was the reason why I lost so
much, but in reality, I played poorly all day and in particular just
made so many dumbassed calls
http://weaktight.com/4831122
yuck
http://weaktight.com/4831119
Poorly processed bluff here, instead of
betting turn I need to be checking back to rep showdown and then
bluff river if checked to.
http://weaktight.com/4831123
Failed double barrel, but against this
opponent I am not sure he folds KQ or KJ on the turn so I think it is
a mistimed barrel, I should just bet flop and give up against him.
http://weaktight.com/4831124
I really like my barrel in this spot
because I thought the only possible flush draws he could have were
QJ, JT, and T9. Because they are all combo draws on the flop I
expected him to 3bet them on the flop and get the money in, as well
as his two pair plus hands so I thought his range was definitely
capped here and thus it was a nice spot to barrel with my A of
spades. Unfortunate but I think this was a well thought out bluff
http://weaktight.com/4831125
AJ < AK HU. I really hate my play
here, I 3bet without a great plan because I was running him over. I
justified it by thinking he could be bluffing here considering I was
running him over, but that doesn't sound realistic from a reg, he
simply was waiting for a hand and I paid him off, pretty serious
mistake here.
http://weaktight.com/4831126
Cooler in 3bet pot
http://weaktight.com/4831127
Lost a race here postflop
http://weaktight.com/4831129
No idea why I c-c here instead of b-f,
bet folding is by far the best play even though I would have bet
about the same amount
http://weaktight.com/4831130
unlucky
http://weaktight.com/4831131
Cooler but lost the min
http://weaktight.com/4831133
Unlucky
http://weaktight.com/4831134
Lol, well this was my last hand of the
night Saturday and I knew it was time to quit. I was working on a
margarita that my wife made, my wife's friend was over and I was too
excited for Sonnen-Silva around 7:30pm, board is just too far
connected and I should have quit 10 minutes earlier.
So of course Saturday night I was at
the bar with my buddies for the big UFC fights. I was so pumped all
night although the first few fights were really lacking in
excitement. The co main event Ortiz-Griffin was particularly
disappointing because both guys gassed in the first round, it was a
really sloppy fight, and I thought Tito won the fight 29-28 winning
the first and third rounds even though the decision was given to
Forrest. Griffin was so disappointed with his performance that he
ran out of the ring before the decision was even made! It was funny
because Dana White had to chase him back into the ring and it was
obvious he thought he lost the fight (dude probably has some major
mental problems but still love the guy). In the main event, and
arguably one of the biggest fights in UFC history, Silva ended up
with the KO but there was certainly some major controversy. First of
all, during the introductions Silva was caught rubbing the vasoline
from his face onto the rest of his body making him more slippery and
harder to take down. This is a major offense that no one seems to
care about because he is Anderson Silva. Sonnen totally dominated
the first round, arguably a 10-8 round. In the second round he went
for another takedown and for 20-30 seconds Silva obviously grabbed
his shorts the whole time, something that he should have been
deducted a point for. Finally, the big blow that led to the end of
the fight was clearly an illegal knee. When a fighter is on the
ground, you can not use any part of your legs to hit his face. At
the time I thought the knee very clearly hit Sonnen on the chin, and
of course lost my shit at the bar where I was about 12 big beers and
3 patron shots deep lol. While that was not the case and as you will
see in the link the knee hit his chest, but the rest of his leg very
clearly hit his face, another point deduction. Now I said before I
thought Silva would win by KO, and I wouldn't be surprised if the
fight would have ended that way, but with that said it is pretty
obvious that there were three very illegal things that happened
during this fight, and I feel like Sonnen was robbed of a chance to
win the fight. I would really urge you guys to find a replay of the
fight if you haven't seen it for yourself and decide. Here is a
picture of the illegal knee:
http://twitpic.com/a57vai
As successful and anticipated as this
fight was, I really hope that if Sonnen wins two fights in a row he
gets a final shot at Silva, because outside of the mega fights with
St. Pierre (who is currently playing the WSOP main event, VERY COOL)
or Jon Jones, there is no other middle weight fighter that intrigues
me as much as another match between the two. I have a big week of
grinding in front of me, and I am going to start going back to the
gym starting tomorrow, wish me luck in both. Good luck to any CR
member or reader who is playing in the main event, I am super jealous
and definitely will be there next year!
Salud!
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