Balbomb's Blog


June 19 2012

-10.5 BI in EV Today, with a lot of interesting hands

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Man, such a tough poker day. I lost 6bi which I sort of think is not the end of the world considering I finished up stuck 10.5bi in EV. Realistically I am not even sure EV totally describes just how terrible I ran during these two sessions. After looking at the plays below, I know there are some things that look like they were influenced from just how terrible I was running which I suppose is to be expected. All things considered, I am not disappointed at all though by my play, I just need things to turn around some.

http://weaktight.com/4776772

I decided to squeeze here primarily because the utg+1 is a big fish and thought he would call with at least the top 80% of his calling hands. The utg who also has a very wide 3bet calling range in position I thought hit this board decently well but I also thought that he would play any pair pretty aggressively so that was the reason for my small bets on the flop and turn. I was actually quite happy to see him shove the turn and thought my play was successful but somehow A6ss was in his 3bet calling range which was really shocking.

http://weaktight.com/4776782

We are 160bbs deep here and I am sort of in a tough spot. This is a player who definitely folds less than most based on the above hand to 3bets. The nice thing with my actual hand is the ability to make the nut flush which is huge against a call happy guy in a deep pot. I think the flop and turn are both pretty standard, his calling range on the flop is going to be pretty wide (any flush draw, At offsuit, KT offsuit, QT suited, JT suited, JT offsuit, 9Ts, 8Ts, maybe even 7Ts, 55-99, possibly 45ss and A4ss, TT, JJ and a few floats. Outside of the floats I believe that the turn calling range is just about the same and I think that we can remove most of the underpairs and maybe keep 99 in there.

I was thinking his river range was: Kqdd, Qjdd, Kjdd, Q9dd, Q8dd, J9dd, J8dd, J7dd, 98dd, 97dd, 96dd, 87dd, 86dd, 85dd, 76dd, 65dd, A4cc, A4hh, A4ss, JJ, 3 combos of TT, 2 combos of 99, 2 combos of QQ, Aqss, Qtss, Qthh, Qtcc, 6 combos of AT offsuit, Atcc, Atss, Athh, 10 combos of Jto, Jtcc, Jtss, Jthh, 10 combos of KT offsuit, Kthh, Ktcc, Ktss, Qtss, Qthh, 6 combos of QT offsuit, T9hh, T9ss, T9cc, 2 combos of T9 offsuit, 2 combos of T8ss, 1 combo of T7 suited, 1 combo of 54ss.

So to categorize these to determine if a regular bet or an overbet is more effective:

While I didn't have an amazing feel for this player postflop, I know that his range is incredibly wider than most in this same spot. Based on my poker instincts I thought that because he calls a wide range preflop he is going to be far more likely to call down with a Tx hand than most, but because he he has so many Tx hands in his range I thought that an overbet would all but ensure a fold from him with those hands. Additionally of the 8 combos of Qx that he has in his range, I do believe to an overbet he can fold a large percentage of these because it looks like he is going to be chopping at best here.

** It should be noted one of my friends absolutely hates this river shove because he believes this guy is calling a ton of Tx hands and never Qx. I disagree strongly but what do you guys think?

http://weaktight.com/4776783

Was happy to get in QQ but vs blinds 140bbs deep because of how aggro we were in these same positional spots

http://weaktight.com/4776784

ughhhhhh

http://weaktight.com/4776786

Man by far my worst play of the day, and probably of the week. I was worried that he would be shoving 100% of rivers and would have a guessing game on river if it wasn't a spade, but bottom line he has 99 just an overwhelming amount of the time, if he turned a spade draw he bets the turn outright so often!!! Just a terribly dumb play by me here.

http://weaktight.com/4776787

QQ < AQ deepish

http://weaktight.com/4776791

Lost AA in 3bet pot

http://weaktight.com/4776792

QQ < AJ

http://weaktight.com/4776793

I thought that he would be betting turn here with a ton of different semi bluffs or just outright bluffs, I was planning on calling down river on a total blank.

http://weaktight.com/4776794

AK < QQ

http://weaktight.com/4776795

Unlucky

http://weaktight.com/4776796

My thought process on the turn here was that the original 3better had an ace but that I could get him off the hand on the turn by checkraising with my equity, but if I just called I would be getting very little value from hitting my hand. The other player in the hand was a fish, could have a wide range, and since I believed very strongly that the 3better had an ace here, that left very few combos of Ax for the fish to have so I thought this was a pretty good play here.

http://weaktight.com/4776797

AA < QQ

http://weaktight.com/4776797

AA < T2o

http://weaktight.com/4776800

I opted to turn my hand into a bluff, and I think against his range this is quite a strong play. I just think his overall range is so weak, I was trying to get him off an overpair here, or potentially a complete bluff 3bet that river some sort of a diamond, I really felt like his only calling range here was some sort of Jd or Td. Really surprised he played KK with diamond this way because I think very few people at this level are ever capable of turning showdown value into a bluff and obviously its impossible for me not to have some sort of showdown value.

http://weaktight.com/4776801

Failed double barrel in 3bet pot

http://weaktight.com/4776802

High double barrel frequency and he is cbetting this sort of board so often that I thought floating out of position would be profitable because he would triple barrel any of my 6 outs. I think my plan here is quite good and pretty unlucky that he was value betting turn.

http://weaktight.com/4776803

Frustration call here, I think I should really just be folding turn

http://weaktight.com/4776804

My best play in a really long time. So happy here.

http://weaktight.com/4776805

I think I have attempted to make this bluff a few times in the past and it is just really tough to get away with. I think I make this a little too easy for my opponent to call and I think that it opens me up to a few high level bluffs by better players at bigger levels.

Salud!

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