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Alexdb's Blog

December 15 2008

I had a good start to this week but a disastrous finish. I played a total of 9000 hands but only won $982, even thought I was up $8k at one point.

In the end I think it was using a number of hands as a target that caused the problem. On Thursday I broke my rule of playing only 1-hour sessions. By the early evening, in retrospect, I pretty much couldn't think straight anymore and just continued to play really badly. At the time I'm sure I thought that I was OK and just running badly, but it really wasn't the case. My winnings-without-showdown were way up from playing more aggressively and going to showdown too much, and because I was going to showdown too much, my losses at showdowns were huge. In summary I had a $7000 downswing in 2000 hands on Thursday afternoon/evening and didn't play Friday:

I think it's potentially actually quite interesting how much of a difference it makes and how little I realise it at the time. Maybe I should try and test it at some point, perhaps with some internet IQ tests, I'd be tempted to bet that I'd do better if I was fresh but slightly drunk.

On a forum someone asked for advice about playing full-time and I replied with the text below. I thought it was worth reposting here since some readers may be interested:

"Work out how many hours you think you could play for and calculate how much you would expect to win in that time. And then HALF IT to account for playing less, table selecting and running worse than expected.

Then check that the amount you are looking it is TWICE what you need, because monthly results might run from 50% to 200% that amount.

At Laddies the easiest cash-game table selection is, unfortunately, to avoid Scandis and look for British players. I'd use 40x to 20x bankroll. It actually needs to be a bigger multiplier the lower your stakes are in relation to your monthly "wage". E.g. if you need $3k/month and breakeven, the withdrawal would be really bad for a $2/$4 $10k roll, but not so bad for a $40k $10/$20 roll, and you would still have reasonable stakes to drop down to if necessary."

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