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Took a shot at 10/20 today because a 70/15 fish was sat there, but couldn't hit a flop and lost two buy-ins from standard hands, including one all-in on the flop with flush draw, gutshot and overcard, so the session could have gone either way. Luckily at the bottom of my $5k collapse one of the regulars came to my rescue and along with some running-good topped my roll back up near even. I think the day's graph speaks for its self :)

He was really keen to continue playing against me, and I have no idea why. We were sat at a 6 seat table and he kept asking fishy players to leave. I don't think he is a terrible player and we would have both been better 3 handed with a fish, but I think his heads up game is kind of weak, and today he became my biggest sponsor for this year almost $10k down to me.
I'm pleased I managed to get 2000 hands in because I was having a bad month volume-wise. I turned the brightness on my monitor right down and I think that has really helped my concentration.
Regarding my excel-study, I'll copy what I posted on THM forum, I managed to generate a bit of discussion there.
| s1ngularity wrote: |
| I think he is just trying to find a mathematically unexploitable preflop range but I don't think it can be done. Long term it may work but if you are going to starting calling off with A7ss preflop just because someone has a high 3bet freq in a session I think you are going to get f*cked. I prefer to look at what someone shows down when they have 3bet pf to get a better range for them rather than just the frequency, but I guess thats because I dont use software, I'm probably wrong but whatever. |
I am hoping to learn results like, for example, re-raising and calling off with A7s might be better than raise-folding 75o at the times when for other reasons you know you should be increasing your 4-betting.
In a similar example, I approximately modelled re-raising a 35% button opener from the blinds with a 10% range. If he either 4 bets or folds (I have played such opponents), the best shoving range against a typical 4-bet range was tight, something expected like AKo+,QQ+, and this was overall $1/hand better than folding from the blind initially.
BUT, if he 4 bets roughly optimally we need to widen our range to maximise profit, so we shove 99+, AQ+ for profit of 90c/hand.
The thing is that if we have misjudged his 4betting range, he could be exploiting the overly tight one by bluffing us often. If we use the 2nd range we may be giving up 10c/hand, but in return for that 10c we know that no matter how he plays we can't fail to recover around 87c/hand, and that's if he plays perfectly. 1 slip-up and we are well into the green.
His only response is opening less, meaning we get more walks, or cold calling meaning we often keep the initiative.
I'm not saying using psychology isn't better when you have it, but I think there are times when you know you may be being out-'levelled' where knowing shoving widely is a safe haven could really help.
Being seen to shove 99/AQ over a 4bet is probably good for image too. It makes me think the maths is correct because I think I would struggle to judge opening/4betting/calling against such a player. Its basically like taking your opponents bluff-4-betting tool right out of his arsenal, because you're getting it in too often once you have 3 bet to let him bluff, but his good hands don't come around often enough to take advantage of it.
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