This was heads up and had been quite a loose, aggressive match so far. However, I had hardly reraised from the big blind. I'd raised every button as had villain, and we had been playing postflop aggressively, but I'd been card-dead out of position and had hardly played a hand.

Given the game flow I expected villain to call the 3 bet very widely and to raise a lot of flops, but I actually thought he wouldn't raise this one since it looked so much like I have a premium range from my tight preflop play out of position, and I didn't think there was any reason to think that he would think that I'd be folding overpairs on this flop.

When he does make a small raise I feel like he often just decided to give stealing the pot a go anyway, since we both know I could have AK or something like 77 that I don't want to put 170 bbs in with.

So then there's ~$800 in the pot with $1400 left to bet. Thats a ~$1200 raise, about the size of the pot, and I'm thinking that if I shove, villain will definitely put me squarely on someting like QQ+,AdKd and only call with hands stronger than, say, JJ, which he can't have often enough for me to show a profit (especially since he didn't 4-bet, and 22 is the only likely set).

I think that if he does call, its often with 1 pair, a nut flush draw or a bigger draw like 3d4d, so I'd hope to have 20-25% equity, meaning I'm risking about $700-$800, so it has to work half the time.

Anyone like a shove? Feel free to leave a comment...

$5/$10 No Limit Holdem
2 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks: