Hi all,

Having encountered a 15 buyins downside a few days ago, fate has now gone one better, as I currently reside at the bottom of a 20 buyin downside.



These days I don't stop playing if things run bad, as I have a high tilt threshhold, which means it affects me a lot less than most people, although I was getting a bit pissed off yesterday.

Looking over the top 15 losses I can't find any faults in my play, 10 were outright badbeats, the rest coolers.

One has to reevaluate how best to play under such circumstances. If one is loosing a lot, it goes without saying that one is hitting less, so maybe a policy of "no hit no bet" might be the most efficient way to play, as there is a lot of check, raise, reraise situations from the button,and the ever std out of position, miss, so bet, call, check situations.

The onlly thing that really happens at times like these is I get supper determined, as in 'this is bullshit," and am more inclinded to go on playing for as long a I can take it just to get in and out as fast as possible.

My database has now got 166K hands in it. And during that time I've see 4 big down swings, of like 15, 20, 30, 30, buyins in nature. I can't beleive that this is an average expression of the cards.

And although the premiums are all winners, mid AX, AXs are mostly lossers overall, and even on the button A8s, A9, A9s are loosers, which absolutely should not be the case.And this is no better exemplified by the premium hand QQ, which has occurred 106 times on the button with ZERO earnings, and TT is not far behind that either, and yet overall both QQ and TT are significant winners.

It really brings the point home regarding variance, and the staggering number of hands involved in it's cycle. I mean if QQ, and TT are not winners on the button over 166K of hands, how many hands does it take for any kind of normalization to take place over. I mean one can easily envision 1 MILLION hands being within that ball park. Now for maga tablers like me who get through close to 1.5 Million hands a years, maybe I will see some sort of normalization, but for you average family man fitting in what 15 hours a week or so, thats only 180K a year, there is little hope of finding his or her normalized hand expression under about 6 years of play.

One clearly has too look to the long term to get any clues as to ones ability.

I'm wondering how many hands I should expect to play on the $25 tables to get a realistic earnings rate, my guess is around 250 K or so.

Tony