Hi all,

After eons of losing my game has started, finally to turn around.

So these result are from Aug-13 onwards. Although after playing a few K of hands on the $25 tables, i decided i wanted to do some hand range experiments, and dropped back down to $10 for this purpose.

I'm currently multitable on the $10 table and projecting close to 85-100 K for 31 days.

I usually play as many tables as i feel comfortable with, if my focus drops, i cut the tables down. 12 is usually ok, but i can play up to the max of 18.

So in the last 11 days, according to HM ive played 26,47K and netted a profit of $47, as of yesterday, which is 1.78bb/100. Also there is rakeback of about $63 also.

I've been experimenting with various hand groups across all position from utg to the btn, over the last 4 days.

One element of this were the suited str8 groups of QJs-Q8s and so on down to 65s-62s.

It has now been determined that these ranges probably aren't profitable when played utg and from middle positions.


So far I've played 512 from these ranges from the CO and btn, which have won $40.8 or 80bb/100 at 39.6% W$WSF.

It has been determine provisionally that suited connectors QJs-76s can be played from middle position, and so 60 hands have been played from middle position winning $3.56 at 59bb/100.

The next experimental group is A2s+ from utg down to the BB, of which i am principally interested in the lower group A9s-A2s. So current results are.


Position hands results bb/100

utg 20 $2.04 102

M 40 $0,34 8.5

CO 84 $11.95 142

Btn 98 $5 51

SB 88 $9.54 108

BB 73 $23.84 326


And overall position with vpip 381 hands won $42.4 at 111bb/100.

Another minor experimental group is A8-A2 on the button, 195 hands won $0.83, with about the same from rakeback.

Also I decided the other day to add the experimental group KTs+ to K2s+ to the utg, M, CO, and Btn positions.

This group mostly won from the CO and Btn as expected, but very few hands have been played.

So far from CO and Btn 99 hands won $13.7 at 138bb/100.

My general win rate W$WSF for all hands from utg to btn is 5018 hands for $311 at 62bb/100 and 38.1 % W$WSF.

When we look at VPIP instead 5909 hands won $475 at 80bb/100 at 42.9% W$WSF.

Yesterday I implemented some of the changes, and attempted to selectively increase my agg level.

So 26/22.6/8.2 where i played pot bets, and mostly pot cbets, I achieved 42.4% W$WSF.

I selectively 3-bet players from the SB/BB with higher btn steal and higher fold to 3-bet and

27 hands won $22.9 at 848bb/100.

Similarly from the CO and button 28 hands were 3-bet winning $18.4 at 656bb/100.

On the btn 148 hands won $17 and 48.6 % W$WSF.

Another element of my game currently making big progress in hands won at showdown, currently since Aug-13 running 53.2% across all positions.

I collect stats on hands won and lost at =>50bb/100.

Over 8.47 K of hands going to showdown losses are averaging 5.78%, and this month alone have fallen from 7.04% to 5.78 %. By comparison this month my win hands from the overall stats have fallen from 8.17% to 7.26%.

The net difference of winners over losers has risen from 0.7 % to 1.48 %

Thus showing a net gain at showdown over 2408 hands of $1221 or 539bb/100.

It is threw staying away from dangerous flops and making some big folds that has resulted in the current improvement in my game,

Hopefully things will progress positively down the pathway, till the hand range experiment is completed.

One other good piiece of new is im finally about to graduate to the next VIP tier.

Now on Poker Stars, one you've achieve Silver you have to maintain it.

At Carbon Poker with 35% daily added rakeback, once you achieve a tier promotion, you keep it forever.

The bonus is auto $2.5 for every 500 vip pts, and can exchange 10,000 vip pts for $100.

Tier promotion isn't easy however. It takes 5000 vip pts for the first one, and that took me over 163K of hands when i get there today, and that took nearlly 4 months. The next one is at 25,000 vip pts.

At my current rate of play from the last two days of 4944 hsnds, it will take 429 K of hands, which translates into about 5 MONTHS playing an average of 85K per month on the $10 table, which equates to the end of January, unless I move up to $25 tables before then, but I'd like to get a good hand database from my experimental ranges first.

I currently have to achieve 1200 vip pts to get $10 of my sign on bonus released. so that brings in about $30/month. The tier mini bonus will bring in $20/month. Other monthly bonus schemes, at least the current variety will bring in $35/month.

If I play 85K of hands/month the rakeback will be about $220, so total monthly bonuses on the $10 table playing about 85K of hands will be about $305.

So that's about where I am now.

On August-10 i increased my bankroll to 170 buyins relative to the $10 table, and with rakeback and bonuses I'm currently up $92, but I lost $55 on the $25 tables so its really worth a bit more.



tony

Hi all,

Well things are different on the $25 tables, i took a couple of bad beats, so being smart, i moved down when i was off 3 buyins.

The other day i went to see Inception on IMAX, pretty awesome.

While watching the movie i got to thinking about "ranges" my often time most favorite topic. I've read suggestion regarding ranges, but never saw any proof regarding what actually wins and what doesn't.

In fact a hand doesn't actually have to win to be played anywhere, it just has to break even, and the rake will justify its play.

So ive decided to enter into a mega database hand range research project.

I still play as many table as are available, which often its more than 15, as not so many people play on the $10 table that I have a huge BR for.

Basically I want to know which hand groups win or break even every where, so im picking mostly on the suited gappers that can form str8s, and see how they fair.

So for example utg, as far as this experiment goes I'm playing

22+
A2s+
AT+
K9s+
KQ
Q8s+
J7s+
T6s+
95s+
84s+.

Then the same across to the button, and along the way will pick up KQ-K9, QJ-Q9. On the button A2+, K2s+, and all the lower suiteds will be played.

In the blinds it will be

22+
A2s+
AT+
KTs+
QTs+
JTs
T9s
98s
76s

My showdown data continues to improve with less losses of =>50bbs, and more wins.

My current monthly hands are projected to be about 87K at the moment.


By the end of this experiment, which may or may not lose, we'll have to see, i'll have some comprehensive data, regarding what range hands to play and where, that break even or better.

tony

Hi all,

I'm happy with my current progress, so i'm on route to depositing funds, and have started playing the $25 tables.

Playing solid TAG after 3.5 K of hands im down about 1 buyin, half plus of which is covered by rakeback.

So on we go, with good results I hope.

Tony

Hi all,

Well i hate to go to bed losing. Yesterday i got myself out of a hole and posted a few bucks win, so quite for the day right. Well thats the smart money, but then ive got nothing to do. So i start again in the evening and go down 3.5 buyins, which really pissed me of, but not on tilt. So we drink coffee and grind. Well at 2 am i'd reduced it to 1.5 buyins down, so i went to bed feeling i done ok.

Got 4.5 hours sleep and set to again.

The theme for todays fun is any AX, and KXs, and pair any sunted connector from anywhere. First in from the cutoff or button with no more than one limper, ANY suited hand,

So thats todays fun list, and we will see how we do.

Well what i lost by the time i went to bed last night i won back in about 15 minutes.

So we will see what today bring and play some POKER.

Tony

Hi all,

Now solidly entrenched on the $10 tables, which started on Aug-11. Since then ive played 20K of hands in 8 days through part of today. With rakeback and some small bonuses I'm currently up about $99. so thats 2.48 BB/100.

I'm currently over 14 days averaging about 80K of hands per month. Pretty much playing every table available up to 18 max, which doesn't happen very often or for too long anyway as Carbon only has just over 7000 players at peaks time.

I want to get some solid answers regarding what works and what doesn't. So starting a couple of day ago, I started raising all KX/KXs and AX/AXs from both the CO and button, when first in or with one limper. Also when first in on the button im betting every hand, and the same for SB/BB showdowns.

Now if we take out all pairs, and AT+, ATs+, KQs/KQ, the remaining button hands are running $15+ to the good, on PFR of 34.9%, and cbetting 69.4 %. which compares with all hands which made $34. The big difference in my game is $WaSD.

Since August-11 on the $10 and with reference to the button alone winning have been $162 on 3.8K of hands of which $132 was won at showdown.

Now i'm implementing another experiment and that is playing all AXs from early onwards, and making some adjustments to the utg and middle ranges so the % of hands is about the same.

I hope in a few months to get some hard data, on which if all these plays is sucessfull long term, and the hands have only to break even as the rakeback will bring in the bread so to speak.

So far over the last couple of days the weak hands, that is A2/A2s-A8/A8s and the KX counterparts played from the CO and button combined have made $8.5 at 24.6bb/100.

And this group plus every other hand down to 23off played from the button have made $18 at 22bb/100.

People talk about ranges for the CO and button, but the proof is in the eating so to speak, so thats why I want to run these experiments for a good sampling like 250 K total hands to get a good feel for what work and what doesn't at this stake.

Of course things may will change at higher stakes.


So i seem to be getting some form back. Currently playing with 180 buyin stack doesn't give me many worries. And multitabling 2K to 3K a day helps keep the daily swings more under control. However I haven't experience much of that so far.

Tony

Hi all,

There is one common theme in poker that separates the good from the less so good player, and that aggression, when applied appropriately. A theme that Mike Sexton, always said on his WPT comentaries, "Vince the name of the game is no limit holden, and its all about position and aggression, as in bet, bet, bet.

Of late my confidence has returned, and without confidence, well your brain just doesn't work. And of course there are pot odds to consider too, but one doesn't necessarily apply them absolutely with every hand. Even God himself, namely Doyle always advocated betting into your draws, because one time in 5 or 6 you hit them and they often pay off handsomely. And at worst you only have to break even and take home the rakeback.

I'm setting into the $10 tables quite nicely, and ran pretty good today,




One change ive made is when i'm on the button and first to open, I just raise ANY hand that comes along.

In the last two days I've played 318 hands from the button with a vpip of 68.9%, and won $7.9 at SD, and a huge $13.9 without showdown. of which $12.2 was won without even seeing the flop.

The other improvement has been % won at showdown.

My major bad luck today was against an idiot, 78/29/2.4. AND unfortunately I had to have a 170bbstack.

So its AA v QT the flop was Q 9 3, and since i knew he'd call of his hand if he hit it i shoved the river, only to walk into his 11% chance of hitting, OUCH.

The other dumb call was QQ v 87s and a buried str8, which flushed on the river. I totally missed the str8 possibility, as i was so focused on the flush which i should have folded so stupid me.

The only 2 =>50 bb loses. where as i picked up 5, all 90+ bb's.

I played a few weak hands on the button against players who were likely to Cbet, check, fold.

The best was against a 19/14 TAG, with cbet flop 83%, cbet turn 14%. He 4X from middle with a 12% range on 491 hands. So he has pairs, high AX and suited broadways mainly.

I was holding 97off, the flop was 6 J 9, he bets the std 2/3 pot, and i call my gutshot, he check and an A hits the turn. with an aggression level of 4.8, i don't see him check raising an AX, so i figure he has some weak pair or missed his whatever XY, and i bet 2/3 back into him and he folded.

Not something that works every time, but this one and a few others did.

3-bets were few, but i came across this TAG who has an 83% fold to 3 bet, so i went after him and sort of got lucky i guess,

http://www.pokerhand.org/?5621143

I shove the turn with TP and he calls 25% to a flush draw on a 76 bb bet, and since i was way over shoving the pot his call equity was 56% to break even. Just goes to show some people fall in love with NUT flush draws at any price.

I also picked up a $5 bonus from CP's monthyl special, and in a few days with get my third $10 signing bonus which has $980 still left in there.

So i seem to be getting back on track, and wow has the last 11 months been a nightmare of losing all the time.

From what ive seen so far, given my play, the $10 table isn't difficult to beat with good aggressions behind sensible ABC poker.


Tony

Hi all,

For the N'th tine ive made some adjustments to my game. Things are improving as in i'm not losing, and i haven't seen that in a while. I'm not very good at taking notes and using info. hud to play the player, so to speak. I tend to get more fun out of multitabling.

Carbon Poker have recently increase the MT capacity to 18 table at once, so for the last week or so, ive been playing as many as are out them, which averages at around 12-15, but at peaks periods you can actually get on 18.

The most notable change in my game is a big improvement in W$aSD, which is a good sign that im recognizing dangerous flop situations an bailing out early. Like today AA found a flop like 5 6 8 bouble suited and i didn't even bother to bet into it.

I'm just above the bread like, but my new confidence has prompted my to increase my BR and multitable on the $10 table, which ive been doing for a few day.

So in the last 10 day ive played 25K of hands a little above break even, but its going in the right direction for a change.




I'm starting to enjoy poker again, and hope the progress leads to a positive BB/100 soon.


T

Hi all,

I'm doing some serious work finally on my own leaks.

But what I want to do here is open a discussion on what you feel are either your leaks or more particularly what are the most common leaks any player makes.

And please tell us the limit your refering to ie $25, $50 etc.

I look forward to some useful responses and will post the discussion results in the following blog.

A simple example would be, you have a flush draw of any type from any position, would you cBet into it, and if not under what conditions would you cbet into it.

Stuff like that.

Stuff like set mining, do you call any pair with any raise from any position.

I hope many will give of there wisdom, and it seems 1000's occasionally read my blog, so there are obviously player of all ranges from $25 to $1000.

tony

Hi all,

First of all WAY TO GO GAMBLER $55 winK, fucking wow fucking awesome dude. I very happy for you.


Someone made a nice comment about leads.

So one one bad day i looked through mine, and found what i lost could have been recouperated without certain leaks. Now these only apply to the hands I lost. And there were 20 in all. I hardly expect some or most people to agree with them, but im streaming my game.

So here they are.

#1 Betting into single suited flops without a hand.
#2 Betting into flush draws without a hand
#3 Calling utg raises with weak hands eg. KJs.
#4 Betting into over cards.
#5 Calling shoves without the nuts.
#6 Bluffing the river
#7 Floating without a hand
#8 I need to just call 2X bets, they may be AA.
#9, Calling bets with 2nd pair
#10 Calling min raises, often AK, and moreso AA, KK
#11. Calling pairs above 3X bet.
#12 Raising hands >3X other than QQ+. this has been revisesd to 5X with AJ+, AJs+, JJ+.
#13 3 betting with weak hands especially out of position, just because villian has high fold 3 bet stats.
#14 Calling reraises with AK. I know this will meet resistance, but out of position it only hit 28% of the time.
#15 Bluffing from the button.
#16 Betting into X55 type flop with not hand. Obviously i bet over pairs.
#17 Always limp small pairs unless im first in or have JJ+.
#18 Fold reraises on flop wiithout the Nuts, or at least a good TP or trips.
#19 No betting or calling 4 cards to a straight, after the flop.
#20 Cbetting dangerous flops.

Although this is a lot its not so difficult to asimulate, even by my aged brain.

Carbon Poker has raised there multitabling restrictions from 12 to 18. So in the last few days on the $4 tables I've been playing as many as I can and having FUN. Unfortunately the card are mostly going sideways, so its been down, up, down, up etc.

And the same goes for the individual sessions occasionally, like yesterdays mammoth 3.36 K of hands, and of a few occasions i did get 18 tables going. My focus was on the above leak guidelines.

171 hands went to showdown, of which =>50bb's I lost 5 and won 9. My overall stats in this domain now over 113 K of hands is lose rate 6.93%, win rate 7.82%.

Most of my winning probably come from showdown, and although im not winning over all my win rate over 5.58 K of showdowns is 228bb/100 according to HM.

MY biggest problem has always been the blinds.

Over the last 113830 hands early is even, middle 4.9bb/100, cutoff 21.8bb/100, btn 12.2bb/100, but i get slaughtered in the blinds. Positions from early to btn all have positive W$woSD, and only early shows a loss at showdown, but there and hundred of bad playins in there too.

Now with a bigger database ive been able to streamline my ranges to hands that do actually win which come out to E 11.6%, M 12,,8%, CO 19,2%, Btn 32%. I had to take bad plays and badbeat/coolers into account and negate then while setting up the ranges.

From the blinds the winning hands seem to be 22+, AT+, KJs+, KJ+, and forget the rest, although lots of individual trash occasionally pick up some pennies.

My game is slowly evolving, and at least currently break even, so we will have to see what comes down the line.

So onto yesterdays mammoth session. And obviously there were a few mistakes, but it ended up just over one buyin due to a spectacular 3 way hand with a 2 buyin won for a change, having lost the last two with best hand in all cases.

So onto the losses, and ill got by position.

Early : nothing.

Middle: a half buyin flush suckout

Cutoff: nothing and a 5 buyin win seat.

Btn: 22 v 66 set over set. http://www.pokerhand.org/?5609031

He shoves the flop of 6 2 5 double suited, and i have 5% equity, but there are quite a range of hands he could do this with, 66, 55, 65s, AKs, 87s, and even on this range ive got nearly 60% equity, so the call wasn't totally wrong. Take out the AKs and its a coin flip. Also he was a mega fish 56/2 limping from 54 to 83 % of hands.

SB: QQ v 89s ran into a river trips.


BB: AA v QQ allin on flop and he hits a 9% Q on the turn.

One mistake, a 63/19 fish with 70bb stack shoves from the button on 27% steal stat. I called. It's not good to call coin flips. So i made of mistake.

The overall was messy with me down around 7 buyins a one point.

Nice recovery when having 220bb stack JJ v AK find a 2 9 K J 4 flop for 2 byin win and shutdown thereafter.

The mess looks like this.






In other news, last week i got into a sprint on my Cervelo $4K road bike and hit 99% max HR at 178 bpm.


Tony

Hi all,

I've started to feel like my game is improving of late, which goes hand in hand with things in my relationship improving. So ive moved up to the $10 table, and im depositing money eventually to be rolled for the $25.

Having now got in 100K of hands, mostly loosing, ive been able to take a good look at what hands really win and what don't or are marginal, so ive rebuilt my ranges based on some solid data. The pfr's for E M CO and btn are something like 6, 8, 15, 25. I really don't see any value in set mining from early position, and even think AJ is barely a winner, hence i don't play it. Most of the glaring leaks came from bluffing versus the blinds, Cbetting on inappropriate flops, calling 3 bets, calling shoves from short stakers. I realized that a lot of money can leak out buy cbetting flops that are good for btn callers to float on.

I also got a bit to psyched out about whether the table had TAGS, or fish, or tight, or LAGs/maniacs, and in what position they were. In the grand scheme of things most, probably 90% of $10 players are weak to poor players, compared to the likes of say $200 pros. So one, that is me getting to excited about who sits where, when i should just play the ranges, and more particularly the flop texture appropriately. I'm trying to be mindful of the adage, big hand big pot, small hand small pot. The likes of opening AA from mid position and flopping 7 9 T two suited, especially with two loose callers, im now leaning toward, just giving it up right from the flop. There idiots, which most of them are do everything imaginable in the book, calling trash from the blinds, calling cbets against overs and catching TP, floating any bets with all kinds of draws, shoving with air on a high end gutshot when the are short, the whole gamate. So im getting to realise that when one doesn't have a hand, floating to hit over or catch draws in position is just dumn. And particularly calling 3bets even with AK is still a leak most of the time out of position. Like some moron 3 betting with weak mid pairs like 88, and me calling to find an A 8 K flop, and bingo, it all goes in, and if one misses and thats 72% of the time, its just bleeding money away. As is set mining in position and the blinds most of the time for evenything less that TT.

So im getting a better handle on the what not to do.

I have great respect for Verneer, but some of the range ideas he had are just way to laggy for my liking. Prove to me that QJs, and JTs, are long term winners utg and fine ill play them, but hands actuallly have to win, not just get lucky occasionally. Now that may be quite different at level above $1/2.


Anyway 4 tabling i picked up 1.5 buyins on 649 hands for 24bb/100.

It started off really shaky, but in got more focused in the later sessions, and hit some good hands.

I started off with a couple of glaring mistakes.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?5596262

AA v 84s in BB. classic mistakes all round. utg opens pot on 13% pfr, I decide to float, instead of rerasie, God knows why, real dumn, which brings in two other callers from the btn and SB (84s). Now that typical of the trash loose fish will play, its EV potential is very low. So the flop comes 8 6 Q, double suited. Now right of the bat, the 8h 6h, spells potential trouble 4 handed. I half bet the pot and there are two callers. I think at this point checking and pretty much giving up is the smarter play. The other day in his long essay CitizenWind, highlighted how little mistakes early on can lead to colossal mistakes on later streets. And although this was a fiasco of idiotic proportions, it gets the point accross very succinctly.

The turn was of course a 4. so now we have 8 6 Q 4, the guy shoves and im like, oh he must have AQ or KQ, and is one of these shoving idiots.

So i learned a lot there, basically to play correct ABC at all times ie 3 bet appropriately and don't get into the fancy play syndrome, and just to stay away from flops like that one with AA, on multi caller flops.

The next fiasco, 99 v KK was 3 betting the SB TAG raises with a weak pair. Fold is the safe play. Although most people will set mine. In my opinion, there are just two many overs to waste call in this position.

So some reminders of what not to do.

Also later I raise 88 from the CO and got 3bet from the btn by a fish. I didn't have his 3 bet stat up on my hud, and shoved, well he somewhat stupidly called with AK, and i got really lucky in a way as he sucked out, but it came, Q 8 J A 6.

So i needed to regroup and calm down.

Later I hit 4 good hands.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?5596295

QJ v KQ, and a good example of big hand big pot. especially when i hit a boat on the river. Well one limper, i raise the btn 3X, and 4 players see the flop 5 Q J rainbow, the BB donkleads 1/2 pot, the limp/caller calls, and i 2X it. The KQ was short so he went allin with the few extra pennies, and the BB calls the extra as i do, and the idiot limp/caller bails. the turn 3 suites to the Q, I pot it and the BB still calls, and then folds to my small left over river bet. A nice win for Me.

The there was the 88 v AK stupidity, even though i was ahead at the allin.

Then i got a rare but nice flush over flush too,

http://www.pokerhand.org/?5596318

Which could have turned out real bad as i had second nuts.

Pairs bought in about a buyin, and showdown just over two.

It did not go unnoticed that the big wins came from the big hands, namely QJ TP/boat, the 88 trips, and the flush.

So far today is going ok, and im letting the fish donk donate when i have hands basically, and otherwise stay out of trouble.

As in

http://www.pokerhand.org/?5596323

Whereas in the past i'd have been tempted to float the flop bet with overs and a gutshot, now im getting smarter.

tony